New Delhi: The Budget session of Parliament has already turned dramatic with Trinamool Congress supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee demanding full rollback of the passsenger fare hike announced in the Railway Budget by Dinesh Trivedi on Wednesday and directing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to sack him.
The government on Thursday morning agreed to accept Trivedi's resignation that he sent early in the morning and sources say the government has also agreed to a partial rollback of fares.
Following Mamata's threat, the precarious position of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance Government in the Lok Sabha, where it enjoys a slender majority, has been exposed once again.
The government seems to be under tremendous pressure to keep the fiery ally satisfied especially with its defeat in three of the five states that went to Assembly polls.
If Mamata reacts similarly to the Union Budget that will be presented by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Friday, where will it leave the UPA? CNN-IBN takes a look.
By all means, it is a tricky road ahead for the UPA. There are three likely scenarios for the government:
1) Mamata could withdraw support to the UPA, leaving the government with just 255 MPs, which would leave the Congress with the option of reaching out to the Samajwadi Party, taking its strength to 277, or to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and reaching the required half-way mark of 272 and get to 276.
2) Another likely scenario is that Mamata may withdraw her support to the UPA and tries to revive the Third Front. Mamata could join hands with the Samajwadi Party, the JDU, the TDP, the JDS, the DMK and the NCP, giving it a strength of 111 seats. She could also seek support from one of the main national parties making mid-term polls a possibility.
3) The third scenario is one in which the Trinamool and the DMK, both withdraw support to the UPA, leaving it with just 237 seats. If this happens, the government could turn to the Samajwadi Party for support. But even with the SP's 22 MPs making it to 259, it will still fall short of half-way mark. The government could also ask the BSP to step in with its 21 MPs. But the government will still be 14 seats short of a majority making it to 258, still falling short of the half-way mark. More importantly, both the Samajwadi Party and the BSP cannot be together in the Central Government, and as a result, mid-term polls will have to be called.
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