This author has known about the Somra Tract (opposite Ukhrul in Manipur) since he became interested in the affairs of the Indian insurgent groups that had billeted themselves in Myanmar. Indeed, his association with Bertil Lintner, the famed Burma watcher, took this author’s interest in the “Land of Jade” to a newer plane. This author recalls the long conversations that Lintner and he had in the former’s Guwahati home when the author of “Burma in Revolt” used to come to the Northeast’s first “port of call”.
Ever since this author returned to Assam to take on the calling of a conflict analyst (more of a “student of security” actually) he has been researching on United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the myriad of other insurgent groups that sought Myanmar as a safe haven, training area and conduit to China. Indeed, Myanmar has been the primary cradle of insurgency in the “enchanted frontiers”. It might sound inane but it is one of this author’s important theses that, had the Northeast not been so strategically encircled, there would have been no armed insurrection. Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, and to an extent, Nepal, has played very crucial roles in the insurgencies of the region. As a matter of fact, this author has often wondered why a separate system of governance has not been instituted for the expanse.
In the run-up to the 2009 elections when LK Advani was the prime ministerial candidate, this author was asked to give a presentation to the “Iron Man’. Among other aspects, this author told Advani that a North East Security Council (NESC) (the entire format of which was unveiled by this author) should be formed if he comes to power. There was a seriousness in Advani’s assurance and S.S. Ahluwalia, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) spokesperson, even announced it to the press. But the BJP lost the 2009 elections and with it, the NESC also took a back seat. But the fact remains that the Northeast (an artificial construct) has to be governed and managed in a completely different manner.
Today, Myanmar is in a state of complete disarray. Indeed, much of the subterfuges are being engendered in the Northeast as a result of the IIG camps that have been set up there. Earlier, there were robust operations by the Myanmar Army (Op Golden Bird, Op Sunrise-I and Op Sunrise-II) at the behest of the Indian government. But with the military takeover of February 1, 2021, the plot was lost. Surgical strikes of the sort that was sought to be engineered by the NSA in the aftermath of the 2015 attack on the Dogra Regiment in Manipur’s Chandel can no longer be undertaken. Naypyidaw will not be drawn into such action and indeed, during her term in office as state counsellor, Aung San Suu Kyi warned New Delhi from venturing into such adventurism. There is, therefore, considerable stalemate on ground.
But by way of devoting a paragraph to the Somra Tract, the area is situated in the Sagaing region of Myanmar in the Northeast region of Ukhrul. The Somra Tract consists of 34 Tangkhul villages. Owing to its geographic contiguity to Ukhrul, Somra has become a natural base for The Nationalist Socialist Council of India (NSCN-IM). Indeed, therein lies the rub. In the event of abrogation of the present ceasefire with NSCN (IM), Somra could become (as it is now) a safe haven for NSCN (IM). Hansie Tangkhul, the former Chief of the Naga Army is based at Yowpi Camp and has business interests at Muse, the border town to Ruili (China). He has been the primary weapon dealer for NSCN (IM) from China. The Yowpi Camp referred to as the southern command by NSCN (IM), is now part of a separate military division under NSCN (IM)’s “deputy commander-in-chief” Absolom Tangkhul. The cadre strength of Yowpi and Pailenkot until April 2022 was approximately 150 cadres. In May 2022, post-dilution of the Naga Peace Agreement talks, there has been movement of cadres from Yowpi to Heirnkut and Ngacham. It is also widely known that NSCN (IM)’s Alee Command (Foreign Legion) is situated in this area and the strongman of the area has been identified as self-styled “Brigadier” David Raising alias Rambo. He is also the supervisor and overall commander of Kohima Town.
The issue at stake here is simply this. If NSCN (IM) (the group’s leadership and the Assam Rifles top brass are in New Delhi to hold talks on the extension of ceasefire etc, at the time of writing this article) decides to come into an agreement with New Delhi in whatever form or manner, there is a distinct possibility that the NSCN (IM) cadres in Somra Tract might decide to stay away from such an agreement and carry on with the “insurgency”. This apprehensive has been furthered because of the commercial interests that the grouping has in the Tract. It is hoped that New Delhi would take active cognisance of this important aspect. Piecemeal accords would amount to little or nothing and sooner than later, another group would come to the fore.
The Valley-Based Insurgent Groups (VBIGs) of Manipur, too, have a presence in Somra. Quite a few years ago, when the Manipuri insurgent organisation PLA’s commander-in-chief, Manohar Mayum met journalists in Myanmar’s Somra Tracts in 2008 and proclaimed his group’s alliance with the Communist Party of India (Maoist) to fight the “common enemy”, the speculation that had been doing the rounds about Maoist inroad into the Northeast became a reality. Mayum was quite categorical about the alliance. He said, “We have been maintaining relations with CPI (Maoist) for some years. But from 2008, this has become stronger and it has been upgraded to a new level. We should unite against a common enemy.” (The statement is a verbatim replication of what the PLA leader said in a videotaped statement, excerpts of which are in the possession of the author).
While it is not immediately known what the “upgradation to a new level” actually entails, analysis has it that it could involve not only joint training in the new training facilities of PLA (M) in Kachin and sharing of bases, but joint operations as well. After all, PLA (M) is one group whose principles closely approximate that of the Maoists, by way of its ultra-left ideology. Besides Mayum is known to be close to the Chinese.
But at this time, the most important aspect is the Naga Peace Process. The inordinate delay—especially in an election year—could be countenanced by the rest of India as a failure on the part of New Delhi to cobble out a comprehensive arrangement with the Northeast’s primary insurgent group. It is this author’s considered belief that a conclusion to the Naga issue would open up the floodgates for other wayward groups to return to the mainstream. It is said that Paresh Baruah had once said that he does not want to return because he does not want to be “caught in a traffic jam”. Indeed, all eyes are on the manner in which the Naga dialogue unfolds. It had got unnecessarily mired in controversy as a result of a gubernatorial ego. And, at what cost?
The Northeast is watching. Every move must be a calibrated one. The military leadership in Fort William, Rangapahar, Kohima and Imphal have gone out of their way to set the table. It is now clearly up to the political leadership and the prime security czar of the country to provide the finishing touch. A grateful enchanted but distant frontier would become an able and proximate one as a result of the finesse which Raisina Hill is perfectly capable of.
Jaideep Saikia is a Conflict Analyst and Author of several bestselling books. Views expressed are personal.
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