Will US Mid-term Polls Mark Return of Trump as President? As Republicans Race Ahead, News18's '2024 Forecast'

As the clock ticks to the crucial midterm elections in America, Republicans appear to be in a better position than ever to retake control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate as well, reports say. Historically, the president’s party loses seats in midterm elections, and despite some encouraging signs over the summer, Democrats now appear poised to follow that pattern on November 8.

America is more deeply divided than ever, and while the future of a number of domestic issues will be decided by the result of these mid-term polls, there is another important one at stake – will Republicans’ win forge the path for the return of Trump? News18 explains:

Trump’s Not So Subtle ‘Hint’

Addressing a rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania in support of Republican candidates, Trump addressed the most feverish question in people’s minds – will he return to the Presidential race in 2024?

“I’m not going to say it right now,” he said, initially, in a rare moment of secretive poise. But then he spilled the beans – “So, everybody, I promise you, in the very next – very, very, very short period of time, you’re going to be so happy.”

According to a report by the Guardian, two massive screens displayed a series of polls, including one for the Republican primary nomination in 2024, in which Trump received 71% and Florida governor Ron DeSantis received 10%. “Ron DeSanctimonious at 10%,” Trump said casually but pointedly.

The nickname branding exercise was classic Trump, argued the report, adding that it effectively launched a race in which DeSantis is widely regarded as his most formidable primary challenger. Trump is set to headline a rally in Miami, Florida, on Sunday to support Senator Marco Rubio, but DeSantis, who is running for re-election as governor, will not be there.

Odds in Favour of Republicans?

A report by election analyst Adrian Beaumont in the Conversation (published early Nov, 7 GMT) headlined that Republicans had an 83% chance of winning the House and a 54% chance of winning the Senate, according to FiveThirtyEight forecasts.

Republicans have a 53% chance of winning both chambers, Democrats have a 30% chance of holding the Senate while Republicans win the House, and Democrats have a 16% chance of winning both chambers.

Republicans have taken the lead in the Senate forecast since his October 20 article on the US midterm elections, Beaumont writes, after Democrats previously had a 61% chance of holding; this is Republicans’ first lead since July. Republican chances in the House have also improved, rising from 75% to 83%.

But Can Trump Use Mid-term Elections to His Favour?

Brendan Buck, a political strategist and former aide to Republican House speakers Paul Ryan and John Boehner told the Guardian that Trump tended to look out for number one at all points and would take credit for the people who do win no matter how tenuous the reality of his involvement in those races.

“He’ll be moving forward regardless. He will be watching everything that happens in Washington for the next two years; he has a habit of blocking out the sun. He’s going to make governing much more difficult,” Buck stated.

But the report argues that polls indicate that Trump’s choice for governor of Pennsylvania will fail. Mastriano is a retired army colonel and far-right extremist who introduced a failed resolution after Trump lost Pennsylvania in 2020, falsely claiming that the Republican-controlled legislature had the authority to decide which candidate received the votes of the state’s electors. During the January 6 insurgency, he was seen outside the US Capitol.

However, Trump’s far-reaching support and his ability to thrust himself into the spotlight at all times may help the former president.

Trump may have claimed that he was holding off on announcing a third consecutive presidential bid to avoid distracting from the midterm candidates during a rally. However, while admiring DeSantis, attendees insisted that if a matchup occurred, their loyalty would be to Trump, the Guardian report stated.

What Would a 2nd Trump Term Look Like?

If Trump runs again in 2024, and wins, he would give a MAGA-push for conservative policies he may have held off on earlier, a report by Washington Post said. An analysis by David Montgomery stated that Trump would initiate a number of measures with far-reaching implications, such as using the military for political gain, installing a MAGA civil service, keeping ‘super loyalists’ in his coterie while drastically changing America’s foreign policy.

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