The drone attack in Abu Dhabi is one among the many such attacks that have taken place in the recent past, using drone as the weapon of choice. Drones have become the new tool in the fifth-generation warfare. The reason: drone offers a much cheaper attack solution without the need to be martyred while carrying out the attack; it also gives the much-needed visibility to an attack, which more often than not is the reason any terrorist element carries out an attack on the victim country.
The attack on Abu Dhabi’s Musaffah area was premeditated and the choice of real estate for the attack was brilliant. Musaffah is centrally located and the smoke rising from the attack site would be visible from Khalifa City, Bani Yas and reclaimed islands like Halat Al Bahrani. On the face of it, the monetary loss to the United Arab Emirates due to this attack may have been negligible. However, the loss of face, the loss of standing among the international community who considered UAE to be a very secure nation, and the impact on its tourism industry are huge.
This, however, is not the first time that Yemeni Houthi rebel groups have attacked United Arab Emirates (UAE). Similar attacks took place in 2018 using Iranian drones called Samad and other homegrown drones.
The Disgruntlement of Shias
Reasons for the Houthi group attacking its neighbours go back to the period of Karbala itself. Yemeni-based groups predominantly are of Shia Muslim origin and have been fighting with Sunni Muslims for a long time. Shia Muslims other than in Iran are a minority community in the Middle Eastern region. Bahrain is perhaps an exception, where despite being a majority community, Shias are not the ruling class and therefore perceived to be persecuted. The real reason for an attack like the one in Abu Dhabi is — it is perceived that the wealth the Middle East enjoys by selling crude and other petroleum products is not equally shared with the Shia population, or at least that is their gripe.
I have travelled extensively in the Middle East and I have no reason to believe that the Shia population enjoys any less facilities than the common Sunni population. Yes, they are not related to the ruling class and therefore are no princes who enjoy enormous wealth — the source of their disgruntlement is lack of wealth-sharing. Communal angle is, in my opinion, just a reason to pick up the fight. The attack on Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia in 2019 or the recent UAE attack is testimony enough that the Shia population is feeling alienated.
In enters Iran in this whole quagmire of complicated relationship that Shia and Sunni Muslims share in this region. Iran definitely feels that they represent the real concerns of Shias outside of Iran. While that could be true, the perception that Shias are a persecuted lot may not be true at all, at least not from the perspective of an onlooker. For a simple reason that governments of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia do look after their citizens. Education, basic healthcare and other facilities that the government extends are not Shia- or Sunni- specific.
Take Yemen for example. Yemen sits astride the Gulf of Aden through which maximum economic activity takes place in the world. North of Yemen is Saudi Arabia and west of it is Oman. In fact, in the Middle East, Oman has been the only country that kind of maintained neutrality with its neighbours for a long time. Yemen has no truck with Oman, but feels aggrieved and intimidated by the presence of an older, stronger brother — Saudi Arabia. Yemen feels the Saudi government has been directly fomenting trouble against Shias in Yemen, which may not be true at all. In my opinion, I do not think a responsible government like Saudi Arabia’s would have any direct involvement in troubling Zaidi Shia Muslims of Yemen. But more on this in another piece.
Why Use Drones for Attacks
The subject of discussion here is the use of drones as a weapon of choice by terrorists and separatist elements. In terms of technology and cost, Shahed and Samad class drones have unparalleled advantage. First and foremost, these cannot be detected by the most sophisticated air defence system in both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, namely the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) air defence system. The radar cross-section of these missiles and other missiles that Yemeni terrorists use is so little that it cannot be picked up by any radar system currently available.
Moreover, the target that a Houthi group chose was a highly volatile one. For example, the flashpoint for petrol is minus 40 degrees centigrade and the ignition point for petrol is 280-degree centigrade and for diesel it is even lower at 210-degree centigrade. With such flashpoint and ignition point, all the terrorists need to do is to start the fire with some kind of high-temperature starters, like sodium-based starters. The fire then takes over and keeps the fuel burning, sometimes days on end, thereby sending a huge message to the victim country.
Could Abu Dhabi attack be a precursor to attacks in Dubai or elsewhere is a question the world is asking. In my opinion, an attack on Dubai is imminent and the fact that both Abu Dhabi and Dubai are coastal cities, enemies sneaking into their international waters, which is just 25 km from the shore, and launching drones from high-speed boats is something that the United Arab Emirates cannot rule out. Therefore, it would need to invest heavily on patrolling these seas to ensure such an attack does not happen again on its soil. While the second attack may not happen immediately because air and sea patrolling would have intensified, Yemen would wait for an opportune moment to strike again.
Lessons for India here are huge. Many important industrial installations are along the coastal regions of India, namely Kalpakkam, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, the oil facility at Jamnagar etc. Like I said before, in the international waters you can be just 25 km from the coast without any fear of interception. This allows many anti-national elements to approach these facilities unnoticed. Unlike the United Arab Emirates, Indian coastline is huge and it would be physically impossible to keep track of any inimical elements on the international waters. It is therefore imperative that India follows a multilayer strategy in protecting these facilities, which could also include good human intelligence. Owners of these facilities have a huge role to play. They cannot only rely on the country to provide security. They should invest in counter-drone solutions which are available in plenty.
Solutions like electronic jammers, nets protecting the heart of their facility, communication intelligence equipment and EMP (electromagnetic pulse) weapon system could cripple the incoming drone. Let us not wait for an attack like the one on Abu Dhabi to wake up and start acting.
The author is Group Captain (retd), Fighter Pilot, MiG-21, Mirage-2000. He is DGCA-nominated Qualified Flying Instructor and Aircraft Accident Investigator. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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