India’s position on the Russia-Ukraine-Nato crisis has been rock solid since day one. It’s not our war. It’s not the Indo-Pacific. The United States cannot arm-twist India into unreasonably cutting ties with Russia. And if it attempted to do so, the US would only be shooting itself in the foot and losing out on a bigger battle with China. After all, it is the US that needs India more at this juncture than vice versa.
Such firm posturing from the Indian side was unnerving for many in the West, especially the politicians and policymakers in the United States. How do you deal with a country that is ready to call your bluff? Well, you back off with dignity. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki has hinted that India will not be violating sanctions on Russia if it buys Russian oil. She did, however, urge India “to think about where it wants to stand when the history books are written at this moment in time”. Nonetheless, this should come as a setback for many recklessly wielding the sanctions threat on behalf of the United States.
Also Read: The West Failed Ukraine. It’s a Warning Sign For Taiwan As China Takes Cue From Russia
India was unfazed by these characters from the beginning. New Delhi repeatedly abstained from voting against Moscow at the United Nations and upped the ante with reports that India may be set to purchase more Russian oil at a discounted price. Some voices in American political circles are just itching to mindlessly ‘punish’ India for seemingly not siding with the United States against Russia, and yet the Biden administration has been cautiously testing the waters on this front instead of going all out, perhaps out of acute awareness of its own position and India’s propensity to eloquently challenge flawed Western narratives of late.
India’s place in history
To stay out of the CAATSA sanctions and in a move that instilled goodwill in India-US ties, India gave up Iranian oil in its entirety. The result was that China immediately benefited from the fact that Iran is now more dedicated to the Chinese market than ever and it sealed this relationship stemming from the oil trade, in a 25-year $400 billion dollar strategic pact. Cutting back on Iranian oil has had strategic repercussions for India, which, unlike the United States, has much to lose directly from China’s arrival on Iran’s shores.
Meanwhile, Europe continues to inhale billions of Euros in Russian gas and the US, under Joe Biden has been pushing desperately for reviving the nuclear deal with Iran and has also reached out to a heavily-sanctioned Venezuela offering an authoritarian regime the opportunity to curry favour with the US again. The sole principle here is self-interest, not being at the wrong or right side of history, and therefore, it’s a bit rich for the White House to take the liberty to play judge and jury on such a matter.
Russia has freely invested in India’s energy sector and India has invested over $15 billion in Russia’s oil and gas sector. India is also working with Russia in exploring the potential of the Russian Far East and the Arctic region. Russia is also a formidable OPEC+ member which has carved out a place for itself in the oil map by drilling 10-12% of the world’s oil. When energy prices are skyrocketing, India cannot afford to deprive its economy of whatever relief it is offered by a big player like Russia.
So, if Russian oil is available at reasonable discounts in a volatile oil market, India must dip its feet and that is exactly what it is doing, lest the Chinese take absolute advantage of this situation too. It would come with a great cost to unconditionally satisfy the United States’ many whims and India has decided not to further advance this descent.
The Biden Administration keeps stuttering
The Biden administration’s incoherence while dealing with India’s non-compliance was clear when it sent out and then recalled a strongly-worded cable to its diplomats saying India and the UAE were in “Russia’s camp” for choosing to abstain at a UN vote against Moscow. Whether this releasing and recalling of the unclassified cable was deliberate or not, the message had no impact on India’s stance. It only left the US state department red-faced with a clarification that it did not intend such a language for clearance and the cable was released in error.
Also Read: Why No Amount of Sermons or Threats From The West Will Faze India’s Ties With Russia
The US State Department has been unclear about reconsidering the sanctions waiver for India over the purchase of Russian S-400s. India, however, seems to have been quick at anticipating that such a debate would be triggered to arm-twist New Delhi, and perhaps that was why it reportedly put on hold a $3 billion Predator Drone deal just three months after green-lighting it, citing high costs and confidence in indigenous capabilities.
USA is overplaying its hand
The world wants the US to know that it is overplaying its hand, and its disruptive push against Russia would isolate itself if it fails to make a compromise. This is clear from how the USA’s allies have been responding to the Biden Administration’s pleas.
If their dependence on Russian energy was not enough already, the United States’s NATO allies are importing increasing amounts of Russian gas since the Ukraine War started. 40% of Europe’s natural gas, 34% of its oil and 45% of its coal come from Russia. Add to that Germany’s 50-75% dependence on Russian gas. Under pressure to phase out this dependence, countries like Germany think that doubling down on imports would somehow help make the transition away from Russia. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz even said that “Europe has deliberately exempted” Russian energy imports from sanctions and that banning Russian gas could put Europe’s energy security at risk. In other words, the European effort to dump Russian gas is ridiculously insincere, and that in itself is all the US should know to understand that its pull is not as strong as it may think, and the comical trope about being on the wrong side of history is not lost on the Europeans.
Then comes the United States itself, which has announced a ban on Russian energy imports, but has excluded Russian uranium imports from this sanctions package. It appears that the US itself may not be in its self-defined “right side of history”.
Furthermore, Middle Eastern allies Saudi Arabia and the UAE have refused to pump more and drop the prices of oil to strengthen the United States’ case against Russia. The US is scrambling to get a deal with Iran and Venezuela to help ease the pressure on oil. What’s worse, the US has reached out to China seeking all the help it can get in isolating Russia, in an attempt to break the Russia-China bloc that is being ossified by the new sanctions. This is what losing the plot looks like.
Also read: Stonewalling The US President: Why Saudi Arabia and UAE Made Biden Grovel For Oil
Boundaries
As India-US ties develop over the years, India has been setting some boundaries. Surely, the rules cannot be defined on just one side of the table. New Delhi would not give up its strategic autonomy, and not place all its eggs in the American basket in the bet against China. Maintaining and solidifying economic ties with Russia is the next big bet for New Delhi. At such a time, imposing sanctions on India would be highly counterproductive. The US is aware of this reasoning and it may not push its luck with India on this matter.
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