There is an old quote from ancient Greece: “those whom the Gods wish to destroy, they first make mad.” The ancients in India had a similar saying: “vinash kale, viprit buddhi”. In modern day Pakistan, this wisdom of the ancients has been paraphrased in a tweet by a leading Pakistani journalist to read as “whom the gods would destroy they first make them PM and then put them on TV”. This tweet succinctly sums up the state of mind of the country’s ‘selected’ Prime Minister and the sense of doom that hangs over his regime.
On January 24, during a live TV programme in which he was fielding questions from the public, Imran Khan warned that if he was ousted from the government, he would become even more dangerous, and that if he took to the streets, his opponents would not find any place to hide. Ostensibly, Imran was addressing the opposition that is gearing up to pull down his government. But political analysts and observers are convinced that he was issuing a threat to the Pakistan’s military establishment.
For weeks, the air in Islamabad has been rife with rumours – according to a senior Pakistani analyst, there are no rumours in Islamabad, only premature facts – of an imminent regime change. There has been a lot of chatter in the media about meetings between senior opposition figures with members of the military establishment to tie up the loose ends before the axe falls on Imran Khan’s regime. Even Imran Khan and his cronies are aware of some of these meetings. But while they have expressed faux confidence that these intrigues will come to naught, there is a pervasive sense that this government is on its last legs and will not survive more than a few weeks. It is being said that the Pakistan military establishment is all set to dump its once blue-eyed boy. The Praetorian generals who once saw Imran as the great white hope to pull the country out of the endless political, economic and administrative morass, have seen things go from bad to worse under Imran.
Imran Khan’s unhinged rant on TV is being seen as a clear threat to the military brass to not abandon him. His relations with the Army have been going south for sometime now. It started with his defying the military establishment on arresting the drift in the affairs of state in Punjab where Imran had appointed an utterly ineffective chief minister, Usman Buzdar. The economic drift and the inept governance contributed to the disquiet in the military. But the tussle over the appointment of the ISI chief in October last was the final straw. Since then the Army has steadily distanced itself from the regime and let it fend for itself. Soon the rumour mills became active about the search for an alternative to Imran and increasing contacts between top opposition figures and members of the military establishment.
Imran Khan’s High Stakes Gamble
It is against this backdrop that Imran’s threat has come. The message he was sending was that he won’t go away silently, and if ousted he will target the military like no one has done before. Living as he does in an alternate reality, Imran Khan still seems to believe that he will be able to rouse the Pakistani street against the military establishment and whoever replaces him. That he is now a much reviled figure on the Pakistani street is something that completely escapes him. Other than the handful of cronies and courtiers who surround him and regale him with stories of his popularity, or the scamsters who are profiting from the regime, no one is going to shed a tear if he is ousted. Even so, Imran is convinced that he can take the fight to the military if it crosses, or double-crosses, him. Perhaps he thinks that just as Nawaz Sharif’s naming and shaming of top generals made them extremely uncomfortable and forced them to not only cut slack but also open doors to the PMLN (Pakistan Muslim League-N), his threatening to do the same might shut those doors and keep him ensconced on the Prime Minister’s chair.
But Imran’s bellicosity is a high stakes gamble. It confronts the military establishment with a stark choice. If the Army succumbs to the threats of Imran, it will expose a weakness that other politicians will be tempted to exploit. If there is any sign that the Army is trying to bail Imran out, the opposition parties will not only target the top brass by naming them once again but go hammer and tongs at the military brass and its interference and involvement in politics.
Given the mess that Imran’s feckless governance has created, the opposition’s targeting of the military will find a lot of resonance among the public. Already the Army is being blamed for having foisted an incompetent, clueless and fascist regime on the people. Any further support to prop up this regime will only add to the unpopularity of the Pakistan Army among the people. Simply put, by backing Imran the Army will not only risk its reputation but also lose its menace.
Controlled Demolition of ‘Selected’ Regime
The other option is to allow a controlled demolition of the ‘selected’ regime. This will not only keep alive the aura of the military as the ultimate arbiter and controller of politics, but it will also help in limiting the reputational damage being caused by closely associated with Imran Khan and his misgovernance. Getting rid of Imran is the easier part. If he refuses to read the writing on the wall and throw in the towel on his own accord, a no confidence motion can always be moved. Not only will coalition partners desert Imran Khan, but many PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) members of parliament will also shift their loyalties away from him. All they need is a nod and a wink from the military, and some sweeteners and assurances from the PML-N about their political future. The real problem is that there is no clarity on who or what will replace Imran. The roadmap on that is still very fuzzy.
The PML-N wants immediate elections. But PPP (Pakistan Peoples Party) is keen on an in-house change because it doesn’t want to lose its government in Sindh. An added complication is that elections can only be held under a caretaker government which is selected by the outgoing government and the leader of opposition. There is little chance that Imran and Shehbaz Sharif can reach an agreement on such a government. One way of getting over this is to replace Imran with someone else from the ruling party and then using him to get a caretaker government in place to hold elections. This means that over the next 4-6 months Pakistan will go through numerous regime changes.
At a time of great economic crisis and grave foreign policy challenges, such a turnover in governments is not something that either the Army or the country can afford. The PML-N is however not ready to see Imran’s replacement serve out the rest of the term of the current National Assembly which ends in August 2023. One big reason for that is that such a government will have to be backed by PML-N even if it is from the outside. The tough decisions that will forced on this government will also be blamed on PML-N, something it would like to avoid going into the next election.
Without a clear political roadmap, which is what the palace intrigues are probably focused on, the axe won’t fall. But these confabulations cannot continue forever. Things will have to be decided one way or another in the next couple of weeks. Unless some middle ground is found which both the military and the opposition parties can live with, the window for getting rid of this government in a constitutional manner will close. But that will not be the end of the political crisis in Pakistan; instead it could well be the beginning of another more serious political upheaval – a direct military intervention. The thing is that Imran Khan has been playing politics within the Army by cultivating his favourites, something that has riled many among the top brass. If Imran survives the current crisis, he will be tempted to appoint the former ISI chief Faiz Hameed as the next Army chief. This could be unacceptable to many senior officers who will be tempted to pre-empt such an eventuality.
If the past is any indicator, when a tussle breaks out between the civilian government and the military, the latter invariably comes out the winner. The Army is unlikely to be terrified of Imran’s threat of taking to the streets. It knows that Imran won’t find any support. What is more, it has a good measure of Imran’s bravery – the guy was whimpering like a terrified kitten within a day or two of being thrown in prison in 2007 after Musharraf imposed an emergency. What is of greater concern to the military brass is ensuring a smooth transition to a new dispensation. If this can be managed, it is curtains for Imran; if this transition doesn’t take place, it could well mean curtains for yet another democratic experiment in Pakistan.
Sushant Sareen is Senior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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