Thursday began with local TV studio anchors predicting a drubbing for Goa’s ruling BJP. Yet, the day ended with much praise going to the 48-year-old chief minister who had led his party to victory. His party was gearing up to cope with a hung Assembly, but claimed a “thumping victory” by Friday. At the half-way mark (20 of the 40 Assembly seats), the BJP faired credibly enough.
How the Numbers Stacked up
BJP 20
INC-GF 12
MGP-TMC 02
AAP 02
RG 01
IND 03
TOTAL 40
So, what explains the numbers behind the BJP win?
It had been a tough past five years for the BJP. Their supremo, Manohar Parrikar, died in harness after spending a couple of years fighting pancreatic cancer. Goa had faced the COVID pandemic poorly. The economy hasn’t been doing well, with tourism under pressure and mining shut for much of the past decade.
The BJP was also facing severe anti-incumbency after being in office since 2012. Some of its decisions had been quite anti-popular. Parrikar’s handpicked successor, the ayurvedic doctor Pramod Sawant, was accused of alienating many of the party’s former leaders. Sections of the state’s population were showing signs of being increasingly upset. This included not just the minority Catholic population, but a section of the influential Saraswat Brahmin community too, including Parrikar’s son himself who was denied a ticket in Panaji and fought hard for his late father’s seat. Trade and commerce bodies had been making their dissatisfaction clear.
Signs of Intense Uncertainty
Months before the February 14 polls, there were all signs of political uncertainty.
Reflecting this, politicians switched sides at unprecedented rates. Some joined the BJP, but influential others (like the strongman from coastal Goa, Michael Lobo) first took repeated digs against the the BJP and then quit it for the Congress.
Pollsters first saw the Congress as lying in tatters — the party had been decimated by defections to the BJP since the last Assembly results. Then the high-octane billboard-splattered campaign of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) made waves for a while. Later, the same pollsters felt the Congress had made a fair comeback and that the BJP would not even cross single-digit figures. Finally, the accepted consensus was that there would be a hung Assembly. Almost nobody got it right.
Goa scanned through the full gamut of possibilities, while speculating about the March 10 results. Sections of the media said voter opinion polls were ‘telling us what we know’. But by the end of Thursday, the BJP returned to power, its third term in office since 2012. Not just that, it won 20 seats on its own, without any alliance.
And not just that, it had almost equalled the 21-seat win its late Goa supremo Manohar Parrikar had managed in the 2012 elections. This time round, it also claimed the support of two Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) legislators, who had contested in alliance with the BJP’s bête noire the Trinamool Congress, as well three Independents.
Two Factors That Worked for BJP
Two factors stand out the most in the BJP’s steady inroads into creating a “Congress-mukt” Goa. First, the BJP has been steadily luring disgruntled Congress leaders since the late 1990s. This effort was stepped up in the past five years.
In October 2019, the BJP got 10 of the Congress’ 17 MLAs into its fold; on the counting day, the Goa Congress approached the Supreme Court in the case. The Congress was left with barely two legislators by the end of the Assembly’s term. Of these, the BJP decided to bestow on former Congress chief minister Pratapsingh Rane a “lifetime Cabinet status” in January 2022, even as his son and daughter-in-law went on to win seats for the BJP this week.
The other strategy paid huge rewards as well.
The BJP managed to garner quite a few seats through a spilt in the votes. This time round, the flush-with-funds Trinamool Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has put in serious efforts to build its party in Goa for almost a decade, made their presence felt. A small regional party, the Revolutionary Goans (RG), which campaigns for “sons of the soil” demands, entered the Goa Assembly and also influenced the outcome quite a bit.
An analysis indicates how serious the split of the Opposition votes was. And this became clearer with post-poll figures coming in. Most parties (except for the Congress-Goa Forward and the MGP-TMC) were reluctant to come to seat-adjustments prior to the polls.
The Congress won at best a couple of seats (Aldona and Cumbarjua) due to a split of votes in its favour. But the BJP gain from the division of Opposition votes was seen in at least 10 seats — Canacona, Curchorem, Dabolim, Maem, Mapusa, Nvelim, Ponda, Shiroda, Taleigao, Thivim.
Continuing with its 2012 strategy, the BJP also propped up candidates other than its own, especially in minority Catholic constituencies where it had little chances of winning. This deprived the Congress of four crucial seats in Benaulim, Cortalim, St Andre and Velim.
In addition, the BJP has built up its party structure and, unlike the Congress, continues to work as a cadre-based party. However, prior to the February 14 elections, it showed signs of coming under pressure. RSS leaders spoke out openly against the import of so many Congress leaders into the party, suggesting it had lost its idealism.
Showing its ability to take some bold gambles, the BJP came up with promises to solve Goa’s decade-old mining crisis, which disrupted a prominent sector in parts of interior north-eastern Goa.
Sensing the anti-incumbency sentiment, the party strategically inducted a number of leaders from other parties, including from the Goa Forward and MGP, both its one-time allies. This upset its local leaders, but the BJP went ahead with the plans, despite the turmoil it caused.
Obviously, the gamble paid off.
Some Hits, Some Misses
The BJP gave tickets to two political couples – Vishwajit-Deviya Rane; and Babush-Jennifer Monserrate – both of whom won, bringing in four seats in the 40-member Assembly. Deputy CM Chandrakant Kavlekar and his wife Savitri, who fought as an Independent, lost.
The Congress backed one winning couple, Michael-Delilah Lobo. TMC Goa chief Kiran Kandolkar and his wife Kavita lost. The father-daughter duo of Churchill-Valanka Alemao of the TMC also lost, while Churchill’s nephew Yuri won on a Congress ticket, showing how personalised politics can be in tiny Goa.
Besides Kavlekar, BJP’s other deputy chief minister Manohar Ajgaonkar also lost at the hustings. Chief minister Pramod Sawant had some tough moments too during counting. This could be due to possible inner-party rivalries (in the chief minister’s case) and that party changes did not go down well with the voters in some cases.
The BJP’s vote share went up from 32.5 per cent in 2017 to 33.3 per cent. The Congress’ declined to 23.5 per cent (in alliance) from 28.4 per cent. But the ruling party managed to increase their seats, from 13 in 2017 to a credible 20 now.
Frederick Noronha is a senior journalist and political analyst based in Goa. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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