Goa is headed for a hung assembly yet again as the BJP falls one seat short of the magic number 21, but one thing is for sure: the exit polls were off the mark for expecting that it will be a close fight between BJP and Congress. What we are seeing now is that the BJP is much ahead of the Congress occupying the status of the single largest party with a lead in roughly 20 seats, while the grand old party has been reduced to 11 seats with its pre-poll ally Goa Forward Party.
It is to be noted that the Congress emerged as the single largest party in 2017 when the party had 18 seats. But a lot changed towards the end of BJP’s last term in office in Goa— Congress was left only with about 2 MLAs as defection affected the party significantly. The Congress has further been damaged by the multi-cornered contest that the Goa assembly election turned out to be in 2022.
The Aam Adam Party (AAP), the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party-ATMC(MGP-ATMC) and the Revolutionary Goans (RG) have done significant damage to the Congress’ fortunes. The Trinamool Congress meanwhile, which has an alliance with MGP, has drawn a blank. Now, it is highly likely that the independents will lean towards the BJP as it attempts to form a government in the state for the third time in a row. If the independents embrace the BJP, the MGP’s bargaining power will be reduced and it too is expected to seek an option with the Saffron Party.
Significantly, in a strategic move, BJP election in charge Devendra Fadanvis has stated that it will take MGP also with it. The move will allow BJP to negotiate with independents on its own terms while forming the government.
Recently, Maharashtra BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis called the MGP a “natural ally” hinting towards the possibility of a post-poll alliance. This may further make sense for the MGP because its pre-poll alliance partner TMC has not opened its account in the coastal state and is redundant in the current scheme of things. MGP has been a traditionally soft Hindutva mass-based party which is presently controlled by Mr. Sudin Dhavlikar and his sibling Dipak Dhavlikar.
The Congress believed that the people would rally with it on account of anti-incumbency against the BJP Government, but they could not tie up with any significant party in the state, be it the AAP, the TMC or the RG. Effectively, the anti-BJP vote was scattered among many parties. AAP expects to completely replace the Congress in Goa in the future as it did in Punjab this time and has made inroads into Congress’ traditional vote base— the catholic voters. This total division of votes on the opposition’s side had benefited the BJP greatly.
However, it has not entirely been a smooth ride for the BJP and that is why it has a hung assembly in its hands and a lot of post-poll negotiations to worry about. It is to be noted that defections helped dent the Congress’ voter base but at the same time, these leaders who defected and joined the BJP have not fared well. Among those were both Deputy Chief Ministers Chandrakant Babu Kavlekar who defected from the Congress and Manohar Ajgaonkar who defected from the MGP.
Prakash Kamat is a senior journalist and political commentator. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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