A lot is happening in France these days. On July 11, the world’s second-ranked French soccer team was narrowly defeated in the semi-final of Euro 2024 by a spirited Spain, with the latter turbocharged by a wonder goal from 16-year-old Lamine Yamal. Meanwhile, the Olympics, the world’s biggest sporting extravaganza with 800 events, 15,000 athletes, 45,000 volunteers, and over 2.5 million spectators, is knocking at the doors of Paris. At the same time, the Tour de France, the unique 100-year-old bicycle race, is unfolding alongside the journey of the Olympic Torch.
The Great Gambler
Despite all these events, it is not a very happy ending for Emmanuel Macron, the President of France who on June 9, within hours of his party’s crushing defeat at the hands of Far-Right Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) in the European Parliament elections, had dissolved the National Assembly and called for a two-round snap poll on June 30 and July 7.
His unexpected decision—the National Assembly election was not due for another three years—stunned everyone, including his own deputies and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. The decision also left political parties scrambling against the clock to stitch alliances, nominate candidates, book venues, and plan electoral campaigns.
But that is Macron—the great gambler, known for taking significant risks. His propensity for high-stakes manoeuvres was evident in 2017 when, as a 38-year-old political novice, he formed a new centrist party and unexpectedly won the French presidency just a year later.
Leap into the Unknown
Macron’s latest political gamble has not only put a question mark on his diminishing credibility and authority for the remaining three years of his second term but also thrown France into complete disarray. The final election results have landed the nation in a political dead end with no exit route. The results are unprecedented in the history of the sixty-five-year-old Fifth Republic. I will shortly solve the riddle of what happened, but before that, it is time to tell a small tale of a one-month-old baby.
The Newborn Baby
A month is a long time in politics. A month ago, the New Popular Front alias Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) did not exist in France; the ragtag alliance was cobbled together at the last minute before the election. The four-party coalition comprised primarily two moderate left parties—the centre-left Socialist Party and the Green Ecological Party—and two far-left outfits, France Unbowed and the Communist Party.
The Optical Illusion
The evening he called the elections, in a televised address, Macron described his decision as “grave, heavy,” but argued that he could not “carry on as if nothing had happened.” And what happened during and after elections, indeed was a tectonic shift. After the first round of elections on June 30, in which the far-right surged, it appeared as though the nation was convulsing in distress. However, with the result of the final round of elections held on July 7, since confirmed by the Interior Ministry, France has warded off the once again—but the question is for how long. Nonetheless, the second worst has happened.
The Verdict
The two rounds of elections yielded dramatically different outcomes. The first round, held on June 30, saw Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party alias Rassemblement National (RN) come within striking distance of power. However, after the final round on July 7, the far-right was relegated to third place with 143 seats, trailing behind Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance, which secured 163 seats.
The real surprise was the performance of the New Popular Front (NFP). This coalition, a cluster of several parties ranging from the far-left France Unbowed to the more moderate Socialists and Greens, is less than a month old. Despite lacking a common leader and facing internal divisions, the NFP defied expectations, becoming the largest bloc in the National Assembly with 182 seats.
The Centre Cannot Hold
In France’s 577-member National Assembly, a party needs 289 seats to secure an absolute majority. Although the National Rally won the largest share of the vote in the final round of elections (37.8 per cent), it only secured the third-highest number of seats (143), trailing behind Ensemble’s 163 seats. The NFP, despite being a recently formed coalition, gained the most seats (182).
These results highlight a key feature of the French electoral system, where the party winning the most votes doesn’t always win the most seats. In this case, the NFP, which received 26.3 per cent of the vote, ended up with more seats than the National Rally, which garnered 37.8 per cent of the vote. Macron’s Ensemble alliance won 22.3 per cent of the vote. The remaining parties received a combined 14.1 per cent of the vote, resulting in 84 seats in the Assembly.
The group that secured the maximum number of seats is the less than one-month-old latest kid on the block, the New Popular Front. The fractured verdict has sent France into a deep cavern, making the country ungovernable. Clearly, between the alternating resurgence of the far-left and far-right, the centre cannot hold.
None of the three political groupings are anywhere near 289, the number of seats needed for an absolute majority. Also, bereft of a tradition of coalition governance through dialogue, accommodation, and negotiation like India and many European countries, France’s Fifth Republic has suddenly landed in absolute chaos and confusion. The problem is compounded by the fact that the animosities within political groups run so deep that the only thing common even among parties within the same grouping, such as the New Popular Front, is mutual disdain for the Far-Right National Rally.
Before proceeding further, it is apt to dig deeper into what happened this Sunday in France. I call it: all is fair in love, war, and election.
All is Fair in Love, War and Election
Before June 30, the only common ground between Macron’s Ensemble alliance and the left-wing New Popular Front was a deep-seated mutual animosity. However, a seismic shift occurred as France grappled with the rising tide of the far-right National Rally. In the first round of elections, the far-right National Rally emerged as the most successful bloc, securing 34 per cent of the vote, significantly ahead of Macron’s Ensemble, which garnered 21 per cent while the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance with 28.1 per cent was second-ranked.
In the first round, 76 candidates were elected outright, securing over 50 per cent of the vote in their constituencies. Of these, 38 were from the National Rally and 36 from the New Popular Front. The collapse of support for Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance was evident in their meagre two seats.
This dramatic shift in the political landscape, particularly the resurgence of the far right, led to the formation of a “Republic Bloc” aimed at combating the spectre of a new Vichy France.
Ghost of Vichy France
Nothing unites the French, whose rallying cry is “liberté, égalité, fraternité,” more than the real or imaginary fear of the ghost of Vichy France returning to the Fifth Republic. To recap, after the Franco-German Armistice of June 22, 1940, during World War II, the Nazis divided France into two parts: the northern half remained under German occupation, while a puppet regime, Vichy France, was established in the south under Marshal Philippe Pétain.
The resurgence of the far-right in the latest election led to two opposing blocs, the left and far-left and the centre Ensemble, joining hands to create a cordon sanitaire against the far-right National Rally.
Cordon Sanitaire
First used in 1920, the French term “cordon sanitaire” refers to a protective barrier against a potentially aggressive or dangerous influence or ideology. As the results of the first round of elections on June 30 poured in, fuelling fears of a far-right takeover of the National Assembly, the centre, left, and far-left parties quickly formed a “cordon sanitaire” against Marine Le Pen’s far-right, anti-immigrant National Rally and its 28-year-old potential Prime Minister, Jordan Bardella.
In a swift action, over 200 candidates from Macron’s Ensemble (81) and the New Popular Front (126) withdrew their candidacies before the 6 PM deadline on Tuesday, July 2. This resulted in two-way contests in 409 seats, three-way contests in 89 seats, and four-way contests in merely two seats. The primary aim of these withdrawals was to prevent the National Rally from gaining further ground.
And the checkmate worked.
While the cordon sanitaire proved effective in containing the spread of the National Rally, it was the left and far-left New Popular Front, rather than Macron’s Ensemble, that benefited most. Ensemble lost more than one-third of its seats in the National Assembly compared to the previous election. Nevertheless, the National Rally also made significant gains, securing the highest vote share at 37 per cent and increasing its seat count from eight to 143 from 88 in the just dissolved National Assembly and merely 8 seats two years back.
Left Agenda
The New Popular Front lacks a consensus leader. The left parties fought the election for the European Parliament separately. It is difficult to predict how long the coalition will survive. Nonetheless, the left-wing parties have a clear agenda: raising the minimum wage from 1,400 to 1,600 euros ($1,515 to $1,735), reversing Macron’s pension reform which raised the retirement age from 62 to 64, and freezing the prices of essential food products and energy. This agenda makes “cohabitation” between Ensemble and the New Popular Front highly unlikely.
It’s Complicated
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, a centrist and ally of Macron who was appointed to the post just seven months ago, has resigned following the election results. However, Macron has not accepted the resignation and has asked him to stay on for now as caretaker Prime Minister, “in order to ensure the country’s stability.” But the crucial question remains: Where is France headed?
Coalition governments are commonplace in India and many European countries, where compromise governments often rule effectively. However, France has never experienced a period in modern times where the parliament lacks a dominant party. The unprecedented situation of three raucous blocs, none of them ready to do business with each other, will undoubtedly complicate governance for President Emmanuel Macron during the remainder of his term.
Complication Gets Compounded
And the complication is compounded by the fact that before the election Macron was on record saying he would not work with the hard-left France Unbowed party. Four days after the election, he has broken his silence on the election results, centrist-Ensemble will not cohabit with far-left France Unbowed and its mercurial founder Mélenchon.
Even otherwise, the New Popular Front, while victorious, lacks a leader who is acceptable to all its factions. Trying to fill the leadership vacuum is Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a firebrand hard-left politician and former Trotskyist. The complication has got further compounded with 72-year-old Mélenchon, the founder of France Unbowed and self-proclaimed spokesperson for the left, who has already declared victory and urged Macron to invite the New Popular Front to form the next government. However, Macron does not want to eat lunch with Mélenchon, and many within the left-wing coalition also detest his authoritarianism, antisemitism, and anti-Muslim views in a country with Europe’s largest Jewish population and one of the largest Muslim populations.
The truth is that the left’s win is neither an endorsement of its policies nor a vote for change like what happened in the UK. Instead, the win stems more from fear of the far-right assuming power and has been stitched together through a fractious, laborious, and extremely painful withdrawal of candidates from the second-round ballot, in many cases against their will.
What’s Next?
The path forward in France remains uncertain. Forming the next government, which could have taken days, is now expected to take weeks. There is no roadmap for navigating this uncharted territory. Macron’s attempt to bring together the Socialists and Greens, the “lesser evil” of the left-wing parties, to form a government is unlikely to succeed. The New Popular Front (NFP) may well implode under the weight of its internal contradictions. France has little experience in running coalition governments, and even less experience in managing minority governments that rely on precarious no-confidence votes to survive. The possibility of a technocratic national government also appears equally unlikely.
As President Macron is headed to Washington as a much chastened and weaker president to attend the 75th Summit of NATO, France is in limbo under the leadership of a lame-duck prime minister during Olympics time.
Whither Far Right
A week ago, the far-right National Rally (RN) had its best shot to form a government in France. Today, it is licking its wounds after finishing third behind the New Popular Front and Ensemble. Despite this setback, the far-right continues its steady rise to power. Two years ago, its seats in the National Assembly increased to 143 in the upcoming lower house.
The RN, which emerged from the National Front, founded by Marine Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie, in 1972, has a checkered past marked by pro-Nazi affiliations, antisemitism, and anti-Muslim views. Le Pen, after changing the party’s name and distancing herself from her father, has made the RN more palatable to French voters. However, the recent record voter turnout of 67 per cent to keep RN at bay demonstrates that France is not yet ready to embrace the far-right.
Bruised and Battered
Macron has survived this political upheaval, but he is severely bruised and battered. His current term ends in 2027, and he has categorically stated that he will not step down. However, with no majority in the National Assembly, he will face significant challenges in implementing his domestic agenda. For at least the next year, he cannot dissolve the National Assembly, forcing him into a period of “cohabitation” with the opposing majority.
Despite these setbacks, Macron will remain the President of France, with authority over foreign policy, European affairs, and defence. He will continue to negotiate and ratify international treaties and will retain his role as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. He will also retain control of the nuclear codes.
But unmistakably, the centre of power, the political gravity, shall decisively shift for the next three years from the Élysée Palace to the Palais Bourbon. This is a scenario to which France is unaccustomed. Macron may have staved off a far-right takeover this time, but only by a narrow margin. If he can successfully navigate the turbulent waters of “cohabitation” for the next three years, it could usher in a new era for Ensemble. However, if he fails, the National Rally could very well end up in the Élysée Palace in 2027. As Marine Le Pen recently stated, “The tide is rising…Our victory is merely postponed.”
The author is Multidisciplinary Thought Leader with Action Bias, India Based International Impact Consultant, and key watcher of changing national and international scenario. He works as President Advisory Services of Consulting Company BARSYL. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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