Indigenously-developed Agni-5 missile with a Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology was successful tested by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) as part of “Mission Divyastra” on 11 March. Launched from Dr APJ Abdul Kalam Island in Odisha, the flight was monitored using telemetry and many radar stations, and it accomplished all the designed parameters. MIRV technology allows the single intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to carry and deliver multiple warheads at different locations. The test pushes India into the higher levels of nuclear deterrence capability, and building redundancy.
Countries like Indonesia and Australia as well as international air and maritime traffic in the test zone had to be alerted 7-10 days before the test. Moreover, Indian Navy warships, with DRDO scientists and tracking and monitoring systems, were positioned midway and near the impact point in the southern Indian Ocean.
Agni-5 Missile
Agni-5 launch tests had begun in April 2012 at the Integrated Test Range (ITR) at Abdul Kalam Island. The first launch flight time lasted 20 minutes and the third stage fired the re-entry vehicle into the atmosphere at an altitude of 100 kilometres. With the seventh test was in December 2018 Agni-V pre-induction trials were over. As part of user trial, Agni-V was successfully launched on 27 October 2021. On 15 December 2022, first night trial of Agni-V was successfully carried out by Strategic Forces Command (SFC). The launch also proved striking capability beyond 7000-plus kilometres. On 11 March 2024, the maiden flight test of the Agni-5 missile using MIRV technology was declared successful.
Agni 5 —50 tonne in weight, 17.5-metre tall, and 2-metre diameter — is designed by DRDO and manufactured by Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) at around a unit cost of Rs 50 crore ($6 million). It can carry 10-12 warheads weighing total of up to around 4,000 Kg as part of MIRV. The missile is powered by a three-stage solid propellant rocket. Its canister-launch missile system is distinct from those of the earlier Agni missiles.
It took its first stage from Agni-III, with a modified second stage and a miniaturised third stage enabling it higher operational range is 7,000–8,000 kilometres. The range has also increased because the missile weight has reduced due use of composite materials. The maximum terminal phase speed is close to Mach 25 (30,600 km/h). As the name signifies, it can spew ‘fire’.
The missile uses ring laser gyroscope inertial navigation system, which may be augmented by GPS/NavIC satellite guidance. Its accuracy is below 10 metre circular error probability (CEP). The, presently, land-based missile has launcher which is rail or road mobile. The canister design reduces the reaction time drastically to just a few minutes from ‘stop-to-launch.’
Agni-5, even if launched from Central India will be able to cover farthest points in China. Being similar in design to missiles with 10,000 km range, the transition to the next variants will be easier.
“The state-of-the-art technology developed indigenously is a firm step in the direction of India becoming aatmanirbhar,” said President Darupadi Murmu. This system is equipped with indigenous avionics systems and high accuracy sensor packages.
PM Narendra Modi tweeted, “Proud of our DRDO scientists for Mission Divyastra, the first flight test of indigenously developed Agni-5 missile with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology.” The capability is an enunciator of India’s growing technological prowess. The project director is a woman and there are sizeable number of women contributors.
What is MIRV?
The Multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRV) allow each missile to carry between 2 and 14 or more separate nuclear warheads. Each warhead can be assigned to a different target, separated by hundreds of kilometres; alternatively, two or more warheads can be assigned to one target. MIRVs ensure a credible second strike capability even with few missiles.
Anti-Satellite Version of Agni-5
India carried out its anti-satellite test (ASAT) on 27 March 2019, using the designated Prithvi Defence Vehicle Mark-II, a part of the Indian Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) program. The interceptor struck a test satellite at a 283 km altitude in low Earth orbit (LEO), thus making Mission Shakti a successful ASAT missile test. Former DRDO head, Dr VK Saraswat later said that an ASAT version of Agni-5 is technically possible. ASAT weapon would require reaching about 800 km altitude. Agni V offers the boosting capability and the ‘kill vehicle’, with advanced seekers, will be able to home into the target satellite.
Global Nuclear Powers and MIRV
Nine countries possess nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, France, China, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. In total, the global nuclear stockpile is close to 13,000 weapons. Nearly 90% of the weapons are with Russia and the US. China currently has 400 but is improving its arsenal with technology upgrade and has plans to go up to 1,500 warheads by 2035. Agni-5 will support India’s deterrence and it will not have to get into an arms race with China. Pakistan and India have similar numbers at around 160. Large number of Russian, US, and Chinese missiles have MIRV capability with war heads going up to 14. France, Israel, and UK too have MIRV missiles. Pakistan’s Ababeel MIRV can carry up to 8×185 kg warheads, and has an India-centric maximum range of 3,500 km.
Deterrence and No First Use
In nuclear ethics and deterrence theory, no first use (NFU) refers to a type of pledge or policy wherein a nuclear power formally refrains from the use of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in warfare, except for a second strike in retaliation to an attack by an enemy power using WMD.
Such a pledge allows a given nuclear power to be engaged in a conflict of conventional weaponry while it formally forswears any of the strategic advantages of nuclear weapons, provided the enemy power does not possess or utilize any such weapons of their own. The concept is primarily invoked in reference to nuclear mutually assured destruction but has also been applied to chemical and biological warfare, as is the case of the official WMD policy of India.
China and India are currently the only two nuclear powers to formally maintain a no first use policy, adopting pledges in 1964 and 1998 respectively. NATO and a number of its member states have repeatedly rejected calls for adopting a NFU policy.
In 1993, Russia dropped a pledge against first use of nuclear weapons made in 1982 by Leonid Brezhnev, with Russian military doctrine later stating in 2000 that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons “in response to a large-scale conventional aggression”. Pakistan has also made similar statements, largely in reference to intermittent military tensions with India, and in context of India’s overwhelming conventional war-fighting superiority. North Korea has publicly pledged to refrain from a pre-emptive nuclear strike, while threatening retaliation up to and including WMD against conventional aggression.
Way Ahead India
Ever since its 1998 Pokaran-II tests, India has been a very responsible nuclear power. It showed great restraint during very provoking situation in Kargil conflict. In 2003 India declared its nuclear doctrine based on credible minimum deterrence and the NFU policy and massive retaliation forming its core tenets. India’s nuclear weapons are under civil control and the armed forces are meant only for delivery.
India maintains a minimum credible deterrence and a nuclear triad for delivery of nuclear weapons based on ground-based missiles, aircraft, and nuclear submarines. All other components of the doctrine such as survivability, punitive retaliation in rapid response, and shift from peacetime deployment to fully employable forces in the shortest possible time are all part of the stated principles.
Indian doctrine does not restrict the country from exercising its nuclear weapon options in any manner. Agni missiles constitute the backbone of India’s nuclear weapons delivery program which also include the Prithvi short range ballistic missiles. The Nirbhay cruise, a currently being developed missile, will be nuclear weapons capable. India’s nuclear capable fighter aircraft and nuclear submarines complete its nuclear triad and operationalised second strike capability.
The Ukraine war, and some analysts in the US keep suggesting a possible use of low-yield tactical nuclear weapons (TNW). Pakistan’s security establishment is also of similar view. India’s doctrine does not differentiate between size and yield and the response will be full scale. Indian political leadership would have to be strong willed to take the call is an eventuality was ever to happen.
India needs to continue to revisit number of warheads, especially the nuclear submarines. With increasing power aspirations of China, and desire to extend global influence, including in Indian Ocean, India must try and have enough nuclear submarines to all always-at-sea-deterrence. India needs to continuously upgrade platform and weapon head technology. Hypersonic nuclear weapons are also evolving. Also, there is a need to review command and control structures. India believes that nuclear weapons are not for war-fighting. Agni-5 is a step towards improved deterrence.
(The writer is Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views)
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