The way political narratives are playing out in the Lok Sabha polls of 2024 has a ring similar to the title of Luigi Pirandello’s famous play, Six Characters in Search of an Author. Except in this case, the playwright is Narendra Modi, who seems to be writing not just his own script but also for his adversaries by continuously setting the agenda. So, if anyone thinks he is being reactive, that is wide off the mark.
The consummate politician is still the master puppeteer who is stringing along his detractors. Therefore, it is so amusing to watch the euphoria of the Opposition after the first two rounds predicting a defeat for Modi exactly the same way they have done during many state assembly and Lok Sabha elections in the past. Some are gleefully predicting the BJP’s numbers falling below 200, while others are salivating at the prospects of a “palace coup” in the party. The sense of déjà vu is unmistakable.
It is touching to find how kindergarten psephologists come up with analyses that they like to believe Narendra Modi and Amit Shah had missed. The debacle of the BJP’s “Shining India” campaign is cited as an example. There lies the fallacy. This is because, unlike 2014, or 2019, the BJP is not approaching these elections with any overarching theme. It is not Ram Mandir, as some expected, nor Viksit Bharat or India as the Vishwaguru in making. Even Labharthi schemes get a passing mention. There are multiple themes and planks on which Modi is fighting these elections, and he is deftly shifting the goalposts as he moves from one geography to another. It’s like a ‘plat du jour’ restaurant that serves a different main course each day of the week. Only here, it is not seven days but seven phases.
One is not getting into the prediction game. That is not this columnist’s line of business. The idea is to sift the strands of the story as it is evolving so that one can savour every layer and dimension of the drama without getting distracted by the surround sound and being confined to isolated echo chambers. Much as observers have labelled the polls as uninteresting or thanda, this is not an ordinary election. The Opposition may see it as India’s second tryst with democracy and supporters of Narendra Modi perceive it as the gateway to “Amrit Kaal”. But, no matter which end of the political spectrum one belongs to, it is clear to all that 2024 is going to be as much of a watershed year for India as 2014 was. Thus, all sides are going for broke as it were.
So far, in the first two phases, about 190 constituencies have gone to the polls. Of these, nearly forty per cent were from south India. It is being posited as if the BJP was aiming to make a clean sweep of these seats by substantially increasing its tally in the south, particularly in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where the party’s seat share has been nil to negligible in the past. This is a gross underestimation of Modi-Shah’s political acumen. While the disproportionate amount of resources and energy invested, especially by Narendra Modi, may be intriguing, it would be naive to think that he was banking on a southern bonanza to compensate for losses in the north.
Personally, I believe the story there is not yet over. There may be an epilogue in store that we are not aware of. But even assuming a rout for the BJP in the south, even a ten per cent negative swing (which is possible on account of natural anti-incumbency) can hardly lead to a rout. So, if Modi’s call for “400 paar” was rhetoric, Congress’s claim of “Dakshin mein saaf, Uttar mein half” is premature exultation.
Similarly, much is being read about the lower voter turnout. Some pundits are interpreting it as bad news for the BJP. Again, it is simplistic to assume that this was not factored in by the BJP. It did not require a Met Department forecast or AccuWeather prediction to figure out that April and May are going to be hot months. The popular prognosis seems to be that it is the BJP voters who, being complacent about their party’s prospects, did not come out to vote. In fact, it is likely to be the contrary. It would require a very high level of anti-incumbency sentiments and ground mobilisation to bring out opposition voters in larger numbers against the BJP’s formidable ground machinery.
Congress cheerleaders in the commentariat and media are already discerning signs of nervousness among the BJP leadership and interpreting Modi shifting gears to raise the Hindutva pitch as a vindication of their diagnosis. However, what people may be missing is that this could have already been part of Narendra Modi’s planned script as the elections moved towards the Hindi heartland.
The Congress and Rahul Gandhi may have handed over to him on a platter the lever for changing the course of the campaign by talking of ‘wealth redistribution’. Any amount of protestations that this is nowhere mentioned in its manifesto cannot do away with the impacts of the words once uttered by the self-anointed “shadow prime minister” of the party. Congress thought, perhaps, with some justification, that it had served successive aces with its “NYAY” promises, talk of caste census, and ‘X-ray’ of the economy. With his powerful return volleys, Modi has seized the advantage, and Congress is left scurrying to pick up the balls hit out of the park.
The best of sportsmen or artists talk of the need to experience an amount of performance anxiety to bring out their best in a major game or an event. The Congress could have inadvertently contributed to removing any lethargy or smugness that may have crept into the BJP cadres and supporters by creating a perception of crisis. To remain in the game, it is important that it does not slip into a comfort zone lulled by its own self-talk. The fourth of June is still five weeks away.
The author is a current affairs commentator, marketer, blogger and leadership coach, who tweets at @SandipGhose. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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