Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha Contest: It's Antony vs Antony for This Kerala Seat with Isaac as Third Pole; Here's A Look at The Key Issues

Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha constituency in Kerala is made up of seven assembly segments: Kanjirappally, Poonjar, Thiruvalla, Ranni, Aranmula, Konni, and Adoor. The seat will have voting on April 26, in the second round of the ongoing seven-phase elections. Anto Antony from the Congress is the incumbent MP here.

Voting Factors

1. This is perhaps the only constituency in the state where three Catholics are up against each other. Christians constitute a major chunk of the vote. The BJP aims to unite its appeal among Hindu voters with new Christian votes to increase its vote share. The Hindu population is almost guaranteed to vote for the BJP as per ground reports. However, the big question is whether enough Christians will vote for the party.
2. The Sabarimala temple issue had dominated the 2019 elections, but did not help the BJP win a seat despite the party leading massive protests in the constituency. However, the BJP had seen a drastic increase in vote share from 16% to 29%.
3. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already visited Kerala thrice this year — and each time to a huge response. His visit to Pathanamthitta is sure to elicit a good response, especially considering the fact that BJP controls the Pandalam municipality and has support of the erstwhile Pandhalam royal family.
4. In 2019, BJP state president K Surendran put up an impressive performance here, getting over 2 lakh votes. This time, the party’s decision to field former Congress chief minister AK Antony’s son Anil Antony is being viewed with mixed enthusiasm by cadres and voters.
5. Antony is 37 years of age, an engineer by education, and does not have any proven political record. He has also spent a sizable chunk of his adult life in Delhi, and has very little local connection. His ability to garner Christian votes is questionable.
6. Anil’s candidacy has evidently miffed Poonjar strongman PC George, who recently joined the BJP in the hope of getting a Lok Sabha berth. George is an outspoken leader and has a good connection with the church. But he is erratic, and neither the UDF nor LDF want him in their fold. George claims he will ‘help’ Anil Antony connect with voters. But this may be taken with a pinch of salt, say observers.
7. Anil is neither an orator nor seen as someone with original ideas, critics say. His laborious speeches in Malayalam are being made into memes by the cyber trolls of the CPI(M).
8. Anil is competing against Anto Antony, a three-time Congress MP, who is well respected and known for his allegiance to Anil’s father AK Antony. This may confuse Congress voters, but not by too much. Who AK Antony publicly endorses would be interesting to see.
9. Anto Antony is a strong candidate. He won the seat in 2009 and retained it through the 2014 and 2019 elections. He is well known to have been in the forefront of rescue and relief operations during the 2019 floods, which hit Pathanamthitta very hard. He even turned his house into a distribution centre of relief materials.
10. LDF has fielded former state finance minister Thomas Isaac in the seat. Isaac is a well-known and well-liked person. Although not a native of Pathanamthitta, it’s likely that he will find strong support among the Christian population.
11. However, ground reports suggest that the LDF is not very confident about Isaac’s victory. For one, there is a fear that Anil Antony may not poll as many votes as K Surendran did in 2019. This means that a chunk of these erstwhile BJP votes could move to Anto Antony.
12. There is also palpable anger against the ‘misrule’ of the Pinarayi Vijayan government. The issue of delayed wages and pensions will have a big impact. Isaac is also facing central probes over the issue of masala bonds during his tenure as finance minister to fund ambitious infrastructure projects through KIIFB. This could work against him.
13. LDF had won all the assembly segments in the constituency during the 2021 state elections, thanks to Kerala Congress (M) switching sides. The Left is hopeful that this would help it in the 2024 election.
14. But among political observers there is also a sense that Vijayan has forced Isaac from virtual retirement to contest, knowing well that he may not win. Isaac’s popularity is a matter of discomfiture for Vijayan who has been sidelining most of his rivals in the party.
15. Anto’s wife belongs to the Pentecostal community from Thiruvalla. A big credit to his past wins can go to this section of votes for him. It is likely that this community will continue to vote for him.
16. Although all the three candidates in the fray are Catholics, the town of Pathanamthitta itself and nearby areas have a strong Orthodox population. The LDF government’s move to bring legislation to end a century-old dispute between Orthodox and Jacobites could have some implication in the way this community votes.

Voter Demographics

• Total number of voters (2019): 1,361,358
• Urban: 136,136 (10%)
• Rural: 1,225,222 (90%)
• SC: 167,447 (12.3%)
• ST: 13,614 (1%)
• Christian: 39.66%
• Hindu: ~55%
• Muslim: 5.12%

Key Constituency Issues

1. Anto Antony has stirred controversy saying that Pakistan had no part in the Pulwama terror attack. This could backfire on him. The MP has claimed that the BJP ‘sacrificed 42 jawans’ to win the 2019 elections and that the explosives stockpile reached Pulwama with the government’s knowledge. Anil Antony has already attacked him for his comments.
2. Sabarimala and its management are a key issue in the constituency. Complete mismanagement by the Travancore Devaswom Board is an old story. But last year, authorities at the shrine struggled to manage huge crowds. A proposal to float a Sabarimala Development Authority is yet to materialise. The shrine has been suffering from unscientific constructions, littering and pollution by pilgrims, and apathy of a state government that only considers it a cash cow.
3. The development of feeder points like Erumeli, Nilackal, etc, has not progressed satisfactorily. Although every year the state budget sets aside a liberal amount for the Sabarimala master plan, much of the work does not materialise due to inefficiencies. Little thought has also gone into whether the eco-sensitive Sabarimala temple can handle the huge number of pilgrims who visit during the November-December season.
4. Kerala’s fifth airport is coming up in the hills of Erumely. The Rs 3,900-crore project could become a boon for the locals and millions of pilgrims if implemented well. But there is fear that the Sabarimala Greenfield Airport project could go the way of the state government’s much touted Silver Line railway project which turned out to be a dud.
5. In 2020, BJP won the Pandalam Municipality, its first municipality win in southern Kerala. Pandalam holds the distinction of being the pilgrimage hub for devotees of Lord Ayyappa. In 2022, despite an outright majority, internal squabbles led to an administrative gridlock in the civic body. There’s an ongoing factional conflict between Susheela Santosh, the municipal chairperson, and councillor KV Prabha. This may negatively impact BJP’s fortunes in 2024.
6. Pathanamthitta is one of the few districts in India to have negative growth in population. It has a high population of the elderly, and a high level of migration by Christians who seek greener pastures in Europe and the US. This change in demographics is a matter of great concern as the community loses political weight.
7. Controversies have been ignited by leaders like PC George who have raised an alarm over high birth rate among Muslims, but low ones among Christians and Hindus. He had highlighted Erattupetta as an example where he claims the total population is 40,000 while 38,500 of them are Muslims. While his comments were attacked by the Left and Congress, it has no doubt touched a chord among the Christian population.
8. Bishop Joseph Kallarangatt in Pala in the neighbouring district of Kottayam had faced massive protests in 2021 after his comments on ‘love and narcotics jihad’. There have allegedly been some instances of attacks on priests, the latest being in February. Incidentally, PC George’s stronghold Poonjar falls under the Pala Diocese. BJP has been highlighting how the Congress and LDF are silent over the issue.
9. Incidentally, the Muslim community in Pathanamthitta is itself upset with the LDF. The Muslim Jamaat Committee here had earlier declined to participate in CM Pinarayi Vijayan’s Nava Kerala Sadas mass contact programme. There was also controversy over the fact that no one from the state cabinet came to pay the last respects to the late Justice Fathima Beevi, the first woman Supreme Court Justice.
10. The intrusion of wildlife into farms and residences is a huge issue in this region due to high forest cover. Three weeks ago, a family was attacked by a wild elephant. Last week, a woman fell into a well after being chased by a wild boar. Last year the fear of a tiger had gripped villages near forests.
11. Around 1,200 families who have settled in the Ponthanpuzha-Valiyakavu forest area are facing threat of eviction after the High Court declared the forest as private property. Activists blame it on the state government’s failure to present a proper case. The contentious forest area spans about 7,000 acres over Pathanamthitta and Kottayam districts.
12. The tribal communities living in forest areas are in abject poverty and facing water scarcity. They also face the threat of eviction which is adding to their woes. One example is the Malapandaram tribe in the Manathodu colony in Pathanamthitta whose members have been evicted from the forests and are living in shacks, without power and at the mercy of government doles. They also face the threat of wild animal attacks.
13. The agricultural sector has suffered badly. The constituency is a major rubber producer. However, farmers are upset over falling prices for the commodity. They feel the LDF government has not done enough to get them fair prices.
14. Like many other parts of Kerala, Pathanamthitta residents are facing a shortage of tap water, especially during the summer months. This is despite the district having some major rivers like Pampa, Achan Kovil and Kallar. Drinking water scarcity has led to calls for modern water treatment plants in the constituency.

Key Infrastructure Projects

• The Sabarimala Greenfield Airport is envisioned as a game-changer for central Travancore. It will serve districts like Kottayam, Pathanamthitta, Sabarimala, and Ranni. However, the fruition of this project is under a big question as it is likely to rival both the Adani-run Trivandrum Airport and Cochin International Airport.
• Pathanamthitta Municipality has submitted a DPR for a transit hub to the central government. It will be constructed under the PPP model at a cost of Rs 100 crore. It will function as a transit hub to all major places including Sabarimala and the proposed Greenfield airport, etc.
• In January this year, the state government announced a series of development initiatives for Sabarimala. In total, six projects amounting to Rs 376.42 crore have been proposed. These projects encompass the building of bridges at Sannidhanam and Pamba.
• In 2019, PM Modi announced the ‘Development of Spiritual Circuit: Sree Padmanabha Swamy Temple-Aranmula-Sabarimala’ being implemented under the Swadesh Darshan Scheme of the Ministry of Tourism, GOI.
• Pathanamthitta General Hospital is set for a facelift as a new multi-storied complex is to be built at a cost of Rs 10 crore.
• Kerala is also getting a third national highway that will connect Thiruvananthapuram to the central districts including Pathanamthitta. The proposed 257-km-long highway, built by NHAI, will pass through Konni and Ranni.

Key State Issues

CAA: The response to the notification of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, could have far-reaching implications in these elections. 2019 had marked aggressive protests sponsored by Islamist outfits. This led to fear among Christians and Hindus. If similar protests break out after the CAA notification, there is a risk of a similar situation arising. However, some Muslim leaders in Kerala have been advocating against protests, preferring to challenge the law in court. Chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s declaration that the CAA will not be implemented in Kerala, is simply bluster as he lacks the authority to refuse to implement a law passed by Parliament.

Pinarayi Losing Goodwill: Pinarayi Vijayan’s government has squandered away the praise it earned for its handling of the 2018 floods and Covid-19 pandemic. Despite achieving a repeat mandate in 2021, dissatisfaction with the current administration is palpable among the electorate. The CM’s brusque communication style has drawn criticism. Attempts to engage with the public, such as the ‘Nava Kerala Sadas’ have backfired. These factors have contributed to a decline in the government’s popularity.

Runaway Exchequer: A significant issue affecting the upcoming elections is the state government’s inability to pay salaries, leading to widespread discontent among government employees. While the Kerala government blames the Centre, it has struggled to convince voters. Excessive spending has exacerbated financial strain.

Scams and Scandals: Since 2020, Pinarayi Vijayan’s administration has faced mounting allegations of corruption and misconduct. Accusations related to the gold smuggling scandal and misuse of power by government officials have tarnished the government’s reputation. The alleged involvement of the CM’s family members in controversial dealings has triggered a political uproar and legal scrutiny.

Crime & Political High-handedness: Incidents of political violence and police inaction have marred Pinarayi Vijayan’s tenure as chief minister. High-profile cases, including assaults on opposition activists and suppression of dissent, have raised concerns about the government’s commitment to upholding law and order.

Campus Violence: Political violence on college campuses has become a pervasive issue, reflecting broader tensions within Kerala’s higher education sector. Incidents of student harassment and intimidation have raised questions about the role of political parties in shaping campus dynamics.

CM vs Governor: Tensions between Governor Arif Mohammad Khan and the state government have intensified, primarily over political appointments and campus governance. Disputes over legislative bills and administrative decisions have strained the relationship between the two offices, leading to administrative gridlock.

Civic Issues & Infrastructure: Despite Kerala’s high urban population, civic issues such as garbage disposal, stray dogs, and flooding remain pressing concerns in many areas including Palakkad and Pathanamthitta.

Migration and Demographic Shifts: Kerala has witnessed significant outward migration over the years, leading to demographic changes and social shifts within the state. There’s a noticeable demographic shift, with increasing Islamic influence on Kerala’s business landscape and a rise in radicalisation within the Muslim community.

Man vs Wild: Recent incidents of human-wildlife conflict have emerged as significant issues impacting the elections. Rampant conflicts between humans and wildlife, particularly in constituencies like Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Wayanad, and Kannur, have become emotive topics for political discourse.

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