August 2007: UNPA leaders meet in New Delhi to hold discussions over the crucial Nuclear Deal. After the meeting UNPA chairperson and SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav addresses a press conference and tells the reporters: "We have no foreign policy. Even the Congress does not know what our foreign policy is. We will go to Parliament and the people."
Now cut to July 3, 2008: The same UNPA leaders again meet in New Delhi to discuss their stand over the Nuclear Deal. Now Mulayam Singh Yadav is neither willing to oppose the Nuclear Deal either inside Parliament or out on the streets. Instead the Samajwadi Party Chief has taken a U-turn. While the UNPA leaders pose photographs holding each other hands for the camera and try to send a message that they stand united, Samajwadi Party’s dramatic shift towards the Congress marks the beginning of the end of the one year old UNPA.
Sources in the Samajwadi Party told CNN-IBN that when Mulayam Singh Yadav was presiding over the UNPA meeting, the leaders of various constituents of the UNPA not only knew the meeting’s agenda but also the meeting’s outcome. If UNPA chairperson Mulayam Singh Yadav had already made his mind to support the Congress, other UNPA members such as TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu and Om Prakash Chautala of Indian National Lok Dal knew exactly what to tell the press which was waiting for them outside in large number. "Out next course of action will be told to you on July 6," Chautala told the reporters.
All the UNPA leaders knew that the meeting at SP's high-profile general secretary Amar Singh's New Delhi residence was nothing more then a customary lunch -- perhaps one of the last ones the ‘bunch of former chief ministers’ will have under the UNPA umbrella. For by evening Mulayam and Amar duo also met the former president APJ Abdul Kalam to put his rubber stamp on a deal which was being termed as 'Pro-American' and hence 'Anti-Muslim'. Mulayam's message was clear. While SP was backing the Congress over the Nuke Deal, the party would also make all efforts to tell its Muslim voters that what is was doing was in the "best interest of the country".
As the UNPA finally all set to slip into the oblivion, several questions are left unanswered. What is the UNPA, why was it formed and will it disintegrate? Is it an alliance of a group of leaders who met due to political compulsions and is ready to break away out of sheer opportunism?
UNPA is a group of leaders who have come from diverse political back grounds and interestingly most leaders are out of power in their respective states. While each one has its own political compulsions and regional political equations in their respective states they all seem to have one common enemy -- the Congress; until Mulayam chose to take a U-turn.
IN an exclusive interview to the CNN-IBN and a first one to the media last week in Lucknow, UNPA chairperson, Mulayam Singh Yadav was candid enough to admit that each constituents of the alliance had their own political compulsions in their respective state.
If Naidu is forced to maintain equidistance from both the Congress and the BJP in Andhra Pradesh, the Indian National Lok Dal Chief Om Prakash Chautala has to face a hostile Congress in Haryana. The National Conference and Assam Gana Parishad (AGP) also face problems peculiar in their respective states, Jammu-n-Kashmir and Assam respectively.
But the biggest and the most influential of all the constituents of the UNPA is the Samajwadi Party. And, it was the SP which took a major initiative in the formation of the UNPA after all efforts to rope in the Left for a possible Third Front failed. Before UNPA was born, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Amar Singh regularly met Left leaders Prakash Karat and A. B Bardhan and tried to convince them about a need to form a third front --- which would “keep equidistance from the ‘opportunist’ Congress as well as the ‘communal’ BJP.” Perhaps the Samajwadi Party had sensed that cracks had begun to appear in the UPA government and they thought they could strike when the iron was hot. But though Left and Congress parted ways, the Left thought it was “too early” to divorce the Congress and trust the Mulayams and the Amars by agreeing to form a third front.
Finally it was left to Amar Singh – one of the few English speaking leaders in the Samajwadi Party – who managed to convince Jaya Lalitha and Chandrababu Naidu why they needed to unite against the Congress. UNPA’s first meeting was also held in Delhi and ironically one of the topics was also the “Nuclear deal.”
If UNPA leaders have their own political and regional compulsions, for UNPA’s chief architect Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh it is a do or die battle. They are not only out of power in UP for the last one year under Maya Raj their very survival is under question. BSP not only has a clear majority in the state but also Mayawati is trying to poach several MPs and MLAs belonging to the Samajwadi Party. If Mulayam has to survive in UP’s politics he desperately needs an alliance and at the moment Congress is the only and best option.
On the other hand for Mayawati, more than the controversial Indo-Nuclear deal, it is the formidable "Congress-Mulayam and RLD alliance" that worries her as it threatens to block her passage to Delhi.
"If this alliance works out we could get at least 60 seats in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. And this could be decisive," says an SP leader.
Mayawati has realized that the best way to counter this new political force is to hit Mulayam where it hurts him the most -- his crucial Muslim supporters. Mayawati is not only inviting several Muslim leaders to her residence to explain the perils of the Nuke Deal but also she is reportedly in touch with several of SP’s Muslim legislatures.
But the big question is what why has Mulayam taken the calculated risk of joining hands with the Congress? A section of political thinkers in UP believe majority of the Muslims have not forgiven the Congress for the demolition of Babri Masjid in Ayodhaya. "Mulayam might gain in the short term by aligning with the Congress but in the long run who knows Muslims might drift towards the Congress," reasons a former minister.
But for moment Mulayam’s biggest worry is not his Muslim voters but how to stop large scale exodus of party workers and leaders from his party. Ever since Mulayam lost power in UP in May last year at least dozen odd leaders have left SP and moved to greener pastures such as the BSP. SP leadership feels an alliance with the Congress would at least stem this outflow from the party.
As Mulayam formalises his tie up with the Congress, his Legislatures are not sure how SP's traditional Muslim voters would react when they see Mulayam take a U-turn over the Indo-US Nuclear deal; though for the moment they seem to be backing their leader.
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