The battleground state of Tamil Nadu is witnessing a high decibel Assembly election. For the first time since the MGR days, the ruling party is looking stronger and may even retain the power. After MGR’s 11 years rule between 1977 and 1988, the ruling party never retained power in the state.
The main opposition DMK is now led by MK Stalin. His father and the grand old man of Indian politics M Karunanidhi is 92 years old has been the chief minister of Tamil Nadu five times since 1969. The DMK has once again cobbled up an alliance with minor players to take on its arch rival Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, who has so far completed three terms in the office, and her AIADMK.
Here's quick analysis of the main players:
AIADMK: Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa is the only face of the party. Jayalalithaa, who is reportedly ill, will be leading the party in the Assembly elections for the seventh time since her mentor MGR’s death. She has won thrice and lost thrice.
She is currently riding high on her pro-people image. Her populist schemes under Amma brand have been quiet successful. With her arch rival Karunanidhi not in a position to take on her in the public due to his old age and ill health, AIADMK has been successful in warding off the negative campaigning by the others in the DMK. Jaya has also been acquitted by the Karnataka High Court in a corruption case.
Her firm grip over the administration has also endeared her to the masses. The undisputed leader of the party is seeking fourth term in office.
Strengths: Jaya is the most popular leader in the state as on today. There are no allegations of serious corruption against her in the last two terms. She has also stopped witch-hunting of her rivals and enemies. Her populist schemes under Amma brand have earned the AIADMK a good name and a bigger following.
Weakness: She is reportedly ill. She makes rare appearances in public. Selection of candidates is also key in deciding the outcome of polls.
Chances: Her winning chances seem to be high.
DMK: The 92-year-old M Karunanidhi, a five-time chief minister, is now very ill. His son MK Stalin is leading the party in this election. He has already cobbled up an alliance with smaller parties in the state including the Congress.
The DMK is attacking the AIADMK over alleged corruption and misrule. But, it is also facing serious charges of corruption.
Strengths: Karunanidhi is a very shrewd politician. Even though he is unwell, he is capable of leading the party from his home. Stalin is untested as CM and it can go in his favour. If the DMK manages to get all smaller parties on board, it can give a tough fight to Jaya.
Chances: The DMK has a 50-50 chance
Other players: The Congress, DMDK, MDMK, PMK, BJP & Left parties are the other smaller players in this election. On their own, none of them can win even double digit seats.
But, if they come together, they can give a good fight. Except the BJP, most others are with the DMK led alliance. After former union minister GK Vasan left the Congress, the party looks very weak. BJP may not be able to win more than 3-4 seats.
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