The suspense is over. Karnataka will vote to elect the new government on May 10. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), main opposition Congress and the third player Janata Dal S (JDS) have already entered the boxing arena of democracy, either hoping to win or to create yet another hung house.
Irrespective of the results, this election is going to be keenly watched as a summer battle in the Deccan. The ruling BJP is looking directionless and grappling with internal issues. The party, which is known for its corporate style election management, is struggling to finalise the list of candidates. On the contrary, the Congress has been fighting it in an organised manner, for the first time. It has already released the first list of 124 candidates and ready with the remaining 100 names. The JDS, which never fought the elections in a systematic way was the first to declare its candidates. With the party patriarch HD Deve Gowda too old and ailing, son HD Kumaraswamy is fighting a lone battle.
The Congress with two main players – Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar — with their own personal political interest at the centre of election, seem to have patched up to put up a strong, united fight against the BJP. The campaign and the selection of candidates have been unanimous and cohesive. Fully aware of the pitfalls of making it a Gandhi family-centric or national issues-based election, the state Congress is trying to make a highly localised fight.
Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai-led BJP is facing a huge challenge. Bommai, who replaced BS Yediyurappa two years ago, is not a charismatic leader like his predecessor. With various interests fighting for different issues within the party, he looks tired and directionless. Party bosses in New Delhi brought BSY back to lead the campaign and Bommai is reluctantly playing second fiddle to him. It is like a head coach leading the team in a crucial cricket match final!
The BJP is facing serious and widespread allegations of massive corruption and “40% commission". It is also struggling to handle the caste reservation issues which seem to have gone out of their hands. Lingayats, the backbone of the BJP, are not so enthusiastic to vote enmasse this time.
With a poor track record in governance, the BJP is looking at PM Modi to save them from an imminent defeat. In this election, Modi will be the face of the party and the insiders believe he alone can turn the tide. He is expected to address at least a dozen big rallies in the next one month.
Even though the state Congress is protesting the disqualification of Rahul Gandhi from Parliament, a majority people look unconcerned about it. He is scheduled to address a big public meeting at Kolar on April 5. Interestingly, his speech during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections at the same place led to his conviction and disqualification!
The state leaders and workers believe that focussing only on the local issues can take Congress past the halfway mark of 113 seats and spending time on national issues can backfire.
On the contrary, the BJP is trying to make it a national issues-based elections, although it has also added over a dozen state issues to its battle armour.
The JDS is claiming that it will come to power on its own. Including the ones who are making such outlandish statements, no one believes that. The party which won 37 seats last time is trying to save its strength and create a hung Assembly.
Since 2004, Karnataka threw up a hung house thrice, a record perhaps. Since 1985, no ruling party has ever returned to power, and it has been a musical chair in the past 38 years. The negative voting against the ruling party has benefitted the opposition. Not their strength.
Will Karnataka buck the trend this time? We will get the answer on May 13.
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