Solidarity Over Suspension of MPs Not Enough, INDIA Bloc in Dire Need of Faith More Than Formula Now

With the suspension of 78 MPs from Parliament for “unruly behaviour”, the INDIA bloc has lost almost half its strength in the Rajya Sabha and one-third in the Lok Sabha. And while the mass suspensions have offered a common ground for the bloc’s constituents, the level of such solidarity may not be enough to tide over two bumpy issues facing the alliance – seat-sharing and leadership.

There has been no commitment from the INDIA bloc on either questions. At a recent interaction with the media, TMC supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee struck a conciliatory tone, saying all will be well for the alliance despite the suspensions. But when asked about the thorny issue of seat-sharing, she admitted that “it’s not an easy thing”. We will work on it, she added.

Not just the Trinamool Congress, but the Congress, Samajwadi Party and AAP, too, have skirted the question of who will be the prime ministerial face of the alliance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, maintaining that the call will be taken after the general election results.

However, with elections in India evolving into a direct presidential style contest, the Opposition needs to project a face that can counter Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity. But in an alliance of Chief Ministers and regional powerhouses, no one is willing to cede that space.

One of the strategies the INDIA bloc may adopt is – ‘every CM is PM’. Each of the constituents will give the impression that their leader could become the PM so as to ensure more votes in their turf. And then the overall tally increases. But barring the UPA tenure, past experience in collective leadership has not been good. The Congress-led UPA also clicked because the regional allies were not as strong as they are now.

The fracas between the Congress and SP in recent Madhya Pradesh elections also made for an ominous precursor to the seat-sharing issue. Akhilesh Yadav’s party is unlikely to be accommodating towards the Congress, especially in Amethi and Rae Bareli.

In West Bengal, the TMC has been stressing that the Congress can, at best, win two parliamentary seats — Malda and Murshidabad. It believes that seat-sharing elsewhere would mean wasting votes. But the Congress and Left will likely have none of it and insistent on their pound of flesh. In Punjab and Delhi, the AAP doesn’t feel the Congress is capable of winning.

More than formula, seat-sharing in the INDIA bloc needs faith.