Does PM-elect Modi Lack Legitimacy to Form NDA Govt 3.0? The Opposition Says Yes, The Facts Say No

Does Narendra Modi lack the moral legitimacy to stake claim and form the government? The question may seem profoundly simplistic considering the verdict favours the NDA that is placed comfortably over the majority mark. But facts have never come in the way of the truth for the newly minted talismans of the INDIA bloc.

They’ve launched into a canard-laced campaign to question Modi’s claim to the prime minister’s chair. Their logic is rather unsubtle. They point out that since the election was fought in his name and since the BJP hasn’t got a majority of its own, Narendra Modi has lost the confidence of the people and has relinquished the moral right to stake claim.

This is an absurd proposition. It’s not the Prime Minister’s morality that’s elastic, it’s the opposition’s definition of fact that seems to be stretched infinitely. Has the opposition forgotten that one of their own leading lights Dr Manmohan Singh wasn’t even on the ticket when he was ‘selected’ to be prime minister in 2004? And what about 1996? When the United Front government stepped into the breach as Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led single-largest party, the BJP, couldn’t find partners to take it across the halfway mark? Would the Congress deign to tell us why it ‘selected’ the good doctor and why it supported the minority UF government given that they are so pernickety about doing the right thing? Of course not. But let’s come back to Prime Minister Modi. Is it right to question his claim? Is the mandate singularly against him?

Here are some hard facts.

HARD FACT 1

BJP retained 208 seats of the 303 seats it won in 2019

Retention rate: 68%

Takeaway: No intense anti-incumbency against Modi and BJP

HARD FACT 2

Just 6 lakh votes across 33 seats could have secured BJP a majority

Chandigarh, Hamirpur, Salempur, Dhaurahra, Dhule, Beed, Arambagh, Daman & Diu were all lost by between 2,000 and 8,000 votes

Takeaway: No intense anti-incumbency against Modi and BJP

HARD FACT 3

BJP won 32 new constituencies across 11 states and UTs

Takeaway: BJP seen as the alternative across India

HARD FACT 4

BJP’s 32 new constituencies are pan-India

Odisha (12) Telangana (4), Maharashtra (3), AP(3), WB(2), Bihar (1) Dadar & Nagar Haveli (1), Chhattisgarh (1), Andaman and Nicobar (1), UP(1), MP (1), Karnataka (1), Kerala (1)

Takeaway: BJP is still growing in states where it is established and in which it wasn’t present

HARD FACT 5

BJP lost only 42 out of 92 seats in head-to-head fights against Congress

Takeaway: BJP first choice of voters in most direct fights against Congress

HARD FACT 6

Total voters who voted in South for BJP 39,465,778, for Congress 39,165,682

Takeaway: More voters voted for BJP than Congress in the South despite the latter contesting 94 and BJP contesting 88 of a total of 131 seats

HARD FACT 7

BJP leads Congress in states and UTs won with 50% or more votes

BJP: 3 UTS, & 7 States

Congress: 2 UTs, 1 State (Nagaland)

Takeaway: More voters overwhelmingly favour BJP in more geographies

HARD FACT 8

Popular votes won by BJP across all seats: 23,59,73,935 (36.5%)

Popular votes won by Congress across all seats: 13,67,59,064 (21.19%)

Takeaway: Congress failed to defeat BJP despite 10 years of anti-incumbency

HARD FACT 9

NDA won 18 out of 22 (82%) of constituencies where women voters exceeded men by 10%

Takeaway: Women voters reposed faith in BJP where they make up a majority of voters