The tiny coastal state of Goa became a hotspot for Opposition politicians before the 2022 Assembly elections. As expected, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the election with a comfortable majority, and the Congress became the main Opposition. However, not everything is well within the Goa Congress.
This Sunday, reports emerged that around eight MLAs of the grand old party have expressed willingness to join the BJP. As of now, the Congress has managed the crisis. However, this adversity in the Congress is a golden opportunity for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the state to take the space of the real Opposition.
Until a few years ago, politicians and a section of the commentariat of India used to underestimate Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party. But with a grand victory in the Punjab Assembly elections and also winning two seats in the Goa Assembly this year, it is well accepted that the AAP is the fastest-growing political start-up in India.
The AAP is all set to fight the Assembly elections in the poll-bound states of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh this year. But from Punjab, the party has realised that it is important to be present on the ground and continue working for the people. This is crucial for the growth of the party in any state. At this juncture, Goa is the best possible option for the AAP as it has both electoral presence and ground connectivity.
Political defections have a noteworthy history in Goa. For instance, throughout their five-year terms as MLAs in the state’s last Assembly, 50% of them switched parties. Significantly, Michael Lobo, the Congress MLA who was allegedly orchestrating defections to the BJP, switched from the saffron party to the grand old party just before the polls.
Political groups like the Trinamool Congress, led by Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, engaged in aggressive political poaching from all parties, including the Congress, Goa Forward Party, and others, during the recent Assembly elections in the state. In a similar vein, during the Assembly elections, both the Congress and the BJP engaged in extensive political poaching.
It is important to remember that the AAP abstained from Goa’s aggressive poaching politics. Although some AAP candidates did join from other parties, Arvind Kejriwal’s party placed a strong emphasis on newbies and grassroots politicians. While Mamata Banerjee-led TMC took veteran Congress leader Luizinho Faleiro in its fold to lead the party, the AAP made newcomer Amit Palekar its CM face in the state. These gestures have helped the AAP to become credible in front of the citizens.
Meanwhile, the situation of the Congress is not good across the country. The party is declining in every other state. On one hand, there is growing discontent within the state leaderships of the party and, on the other, in several states, people have witnessed the Congress lawmakers defect to the BJP easily.
In Goa, the AAP has started its campaign with the request to the citizens of Goa not to vote for the Congress because eventually, these leaders might join the BJP. Senior AAP leader and Goa in-charge Atishi tweeted, “How many MLAs does Congress have? Classic headline from all states where Congress has MLAs. Sooner or later this number heads towards zero! As Arvind Kejriwal has repeatedly said, a vote for the Congress is a vote for the BJP!”
Sources in the AAP confirmed that the party will make the growing discontent with the Congress its ground to reach out to the people of Goa. The key strategy of the party will be telling people that the Congress will eventually betray the people of the state and it is time for the Goans to realise who the real Opposition is.
In the 2022 Goa Assembly elections, the AAP won two seats: Velim and Benaulim. It received a 6.77% vote share in the state. Significantly, unlike the TMC, the AAP did not appear in Goa just before the elections. The party had worked across the state from 2017 after its defeat in that election.
The historic victory of the Punjab Assembly elections has given the AAP an edge across the states and also in Goa to expand their support within the electorate. The AAP and Kejriwal have successfully established a narrative around their focus on the issues including education, healthcare, and welfare works. Similarly, political analysts believe that the AAP’s promise of giving free electricity, water and other amenities is growingly becoming popular in other states.
Before the 2022 Assembly elections, Goa witnessed many promises from all the political parties. The TMC, which created a massive hype in Goa, is nowhere in the state. The Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party, which formed an alliance with TMC has now joined the BJP. TMC MP Mahua Moitra, who is in-charge of Goa, is majorly based out of Delhi and Bengal. The people of the state are well aware of the situation and these factors together will indeed help the AAP to prove that it is the only alternative to the BJP.
The panchayat polls in Goa are around the corner and might take place in August. This election can become a crucial litmus test for the AAP and the party has already started its OBC outreach over this election. With the learnings from Punjab, now Kejriwal knows that to win a state the most important thing is to gain the confidence of the people. Following this method and with relentless grassroots work, the party won Punjab defeating all the major players.
The growing disenchantment within the Congress in Goa and the betrayal of Mamata Banerjee’s TMC can provide the AAP with the golden opportunity to fill the space of the Opposition.
The author is an independent journalist and columnist based in Kolkata and a former policy research fellow at the Delhi Assembly Research Centre. He tweets as @sayantan_gh. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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