BJP Chief Ministers seem to be in the eye of the storm with a range of uncomfortable questions and serious allegations of misconduct and impropriety being raised against them. For long, the BJP has taken pride on the good work done by its Chief Minsters at the state level. In the recent past, Yeddyurappa in Karnataka was the first to be politically ousted by the corruption blaze in the state. In the last few weeks, the Lalit Modi imbroglio led to the demand for the resignation of Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan. The Vyapam case appears to be having its impact on Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh and the PDS rice scam seems to be denting the image of Raman Singh, who's often referred to as 'Chawal Baba' in his state Chhattisgarh. Within a year of coming to power at the national level, the BJP doesn't appear to be dealing only with its image at the national level, but it also has to come to the rescue and support of its senior Chief Ministers. This has assumed even greater significance as the BJP in its campaigns has specifically stressed on the 'corruption-free' performance record of its Chief Ministers. This, of course, was challenged by many but in the recent past appears to have gained greater traction.
Analysis of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections has consistently pointed out to the impact of the 'Modi factor' in securing the victory that the BJP was able to achieve. What is less stated, but needs to be equally stressed on, is the fact that in the states that the BJP was in power, the perceived 'popular' image of the state governments was also responsible for providing a solid base for the party's base and electoral performance. The fact that the party swept Rajasthan and Gujarat in 2014 Lok Sabha polls, and bagged most of the seats in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, stand testimony to the fact. The National Election Study conducted by Lokniti-CSDS in collaboration with CNN-IBN clearly indicated that the ratings of the state Chief Minsters in the BJP-ruled states was relatively high and did provide a foundation for a strong performance in the elections. This image could now be facing a dent and has the potential to erode over time.
The Vyapam scandal has been around for quite some time. Serious allegations have been made against Chief Minister Chouhan for quite some time now but he has succeeded in deflecting them and not allowed it to impact the electoral performance of the party. This time around, the situation seems to be much grimmer, warranting a direct response from the Chief Minster in the media to defend his government and the party. The serious of mysterious deaths that have occurred in connection with the Vyapam scam point out to a very deep network of strong political forces that are keen to silence any attempt to explore and expose the controversial course of events.
In Chhattisgarh, even during the Assembly elections last December, many commentators spoke of the likely defeat of the BJP. When pre-poll analysts spoke of a likely BJP victory, it was thrashed as being divorced from the reality on the ground. When the results came trickling in and a BJP victory was clearly visible, the infighting within the Congress was projected as a possible cause, even as the goodwill that the incumbent government enjoyed was also conceded.
With both the Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh BJP governments in their third terms, it would be interesting to see how the emerging controversies impact the image of the state governments and the Chief Ministers. In the last few years, the BJP has witnessed increasing importance being assigned to the Chief Ministers and state level leaders within the party decision making process. The fact that a sitting Chief Minister was projected as the Prime Ministerial candidate in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls was a clear assertion of this trend. In the last one year, with the BJP in power at the national level, commentators have been dilating on the changing power equations within the party and the emergence of an apparent 'High Command'. BJP Chief Ministers, who assumed office after the party came to power at the central level, were often hand-picked by the central leadership. There appeared to be two distinct trends in the manner in which Chief Ministers in BJP-ruled states were selected prior to the 2014 Lok Sabha victory and after it. It would be interesting to see if the new allegations against the Chief Ministers would warrant increasing intervention by the national leadership and in the process dramatically alter the power equations within the party. The developments are not significant merely for relations between the ruling party and the opposition, but for intra-party dynamics within the BJP as well.
Dr Shastri is the Pro Vice Chancellor of Jain University and a political/election analyst with CNN-IBN
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