With the party patriarch and its most identifiable national face, LK Advani, resigning from all positions in the party, the division bell has rung aloud in the BJP. Is the party headed for a split? Senior associate editor of The Hindu Mukund Padmanabhan joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the issue.
Q. Is this the end of BJP. With the latest development..BJP cannot come to power? Asked by: krishy259
A. I don't think it is wise to write any party off -- I recall people saying Mrs Gandhi's Congress would never come to power after she lost in 1977; more recently, people thought the same of Jayalalithaa when she was trounced in 1996. So, I doubt whether this is the end of the BJP. However, clearly this is very damaging for the party and it may well have implications for the next election, even though it is too early to say how much.
Q. If Advani is not happy then will NDA split..we are already hearing JDU throwing tantrums as usual. Asked by: Bhusan
A. Certainly a likelihood of the NDA splitting -- it is hard to see the JDU meekly submitting to a scenario where Modi takes centre stage.
Q. Electorally, LK Advani has lost all vote catching ability. So whether he comes back or not is immaterial. Do you Agree? Asked by: Suhas
A. In a sense you are right. Advani led the 2004 and 2009 election and lost both. But it is one thing to say he doesn't rustle up much votes and another to deny his capacity to dent the image of the party and to take some leaders along with him in the event of of a split.' So no, I don't think whether he comes back or not is immaterial. It is very material for the reasons above.
Q. Will L K Advani ever leave his PM ambition? Asked by: Manoj
A. Well, which politician doesn't have such ambitions?
Q. Is this divided BJP and NDA a force for Congress? Asked by: Rakka
A. If by force, you mean benefit for the Congress, yes obviously better a divided than an united BJP.
Q. Is there possibility of BJP split into BJP-A advani group and BJP-M Modi's loyalist..is it possible that 2 parties will be form? Asked by: Rohit
A. It is hard to say whether this will happen, though nothing is ruled out. Right now, as things stand, it is difficult to see Advani getting too much backing for such an enterprise.
Q. What is Advani trying to prove by resigning? I feel BJP has moved on and he should live with it. I guess it is in his and BJP's interest. If not they ll leave him and move on and he ll be stranded in no man's land? Your thoughts. Asked by: Kashyap
A. I think you have answered the question in a way -- the resignation is tied to a feeling of irrelevancy in his own party or being left in no man's land in a way. For someone who is credited with being responsible for building the BJP into an electoral force post his rath yatra, this must be a difficult situation to put up with. Am not sure what he is trying to prove really beyond expressing his disaffection.
Q. With JDU almost certain to quit NDA, who will they possibly ally with? UPA or 3rd Front or 4th Front? Asked by: Krunal
A. With Lalu likely to be a part of such a front its hard to see the JDU alongside. In truth, the JDU's options are limited and its own strategy is likely to be influenced by perceptions of how well it can do on its own -- the recent by-election suggests, not that well.
Q. Sir, don't you think that the Advani fallout is blessing in disguise for BJP as it happened early. Its one year to rain and Mr Modi would be able to mend the roof. Asked by: Praveen Rai
A. Yes, you are right, better now than later. But the truth of this assumption depends on the fallout of the fall out as it were. If Advani's and his supporters remain within the party, as an opposition that makes its views known and weakens Modi, then it will be a problem for the latter even if the elections are a year away. Mending will be easy if Advani is capable of being totally sidelined, which remains to be seen.
Q. Can Modi head a coalition with the likes of Nitish Kumar, Jayalalitha? Asked by: Vijay
A. With Nitish Kumar. Difficult. With Jayalalithaa, more than possible. Whether he will be effective and strong in a coalition is another matter.
Q. Do you think more and more resignation will come for next coming days? Asked by: NABA KUMAR DASH
A. Frankly, I don't know. I doubt it though unless Advani is able -- and wants to -- rally a group around him in preparation for some kind of split.
Q. Don't you think that Advani choose insulting way of retirement instead of graceful retirement? Asked by: Bipin Trivedi
A. Not too many politicians go into the sunset gracefully.
Q. Does RSS has a controlling stake in BJP? :) Asked by: Kumud
A. An influential stake perhaps. Not a controlling one.
Q. Why Modi is so over confident? He also should be knowing that he will never get support of parties like BJD, TDP, TMC etc? Asked by: Anand
A. I think Modi knows his chances of roping in allies are limited. Perhaps, he believes he can confound the usual arithmetic -- of caste, region, etc -- that determines elections because of his popularity?
Q. Don't you think that Advani would be the next Keshubhai Patel at Central level? Asked by: Praveen Rai
A. I somehow doubt it, but you never know.
Q. If spilt is inevitable what will be the future of the slogan Modi lao desh bachao? Asked by: NABA KUMAR DASH
A. Haha -- a little less convincing to the ears of everyone.
Q. How to you understand Third Front? Will it be able to provide a Stable government or will it be fragile? Asked by: Bhaskar
A. The possibility of a Third Front seems to have received some kind of shot in the arm given the perception that the BJP may be severely weakened. But i doubt whether any such combination can provide a stable government -- as experience has shown before.
Q. In the worst cases is there any possibility of new party from Advani or he will make silence on UPA. Asked by: NABA KUMAR DASH
A. Frankly I don't know and am unwilling to hazard a guess
Q. Is Advani's resignation part of a strategy wherein Modi will try to grab all the Hindutva votes while being in BJP whereas Advani will now join hands with Nitish and other like Naveen Patnaik to gather so called secular votes and post election they will come together. Asked by: Manish
A. I doubt whether Advani has such a minutely crafted strategy. I suspect he believed that his opposition would be enough to defer or deny Modi the post in Goa and his reaction is an outburst to that.
Q. Don't you think Lk Advani did these things for announcing him as pm candidate for BJP. Asked by: Sonu kumar
A. Well he may have opposed Modi for this reason, but its hard to see how he can force the party to change its mind now.
Q. According to who is mostly needed for BJP? Advani or Modi? Asked by: Ashvin
A. Modi for votes in the short run; Advani for a measure of stability
Q. Can BJP come into power without JD(U)? Who is Good Modi or Nitish? Asked by: Rohit
A. Well, the Modi supporters bargain that the loss of some 20 seats in Bihar will be compensated by what he makes up elsewhere. Whether that is a right calculation or not, time will tell.
Q. Electorally, LK Advani has lost all vote catching ability. So whether he comes back or not is immaterial. Do you Agree? Asked by: Suhas
A. But he does have the power to damage the image of the party as a united and coherent one being its tallest leader. So what he does is very material.
Q. What's the future of NaMo and BJP from now.. Any astrology? Asked by: Ramesh
A. If I knew, I would be visiting an astrologer myself.
Q. BJP cannot get 265 seats on their own. Infact over 140 is also exceptional given the South , NE and UP story. In that circumstance do you think it will be difficult for them to secure new allies and retain older ones? Asked by: vikram
A. Yes, absolutely. Very difficult
Q. Is the BJP headed the Karnataka way with Mr Advani as Yeddy minus corruption charges? Asked by: Kamal Agg
A. I don't think so if you mean that the recent events have so severely weakened it.
Q. As Mr Advani is not Jagan Reddy or Yediyurappa. So there will not be much impact even if Mr Advani resigns as the money bags of BJP is still intact with the parent party? Asked by: prathapvp
A. Have answered this question in terms of his power to damage the image of the BJP as an united party in earlier questions.
Q. There is talk of Advani camp.... but is really a camp? I can't think of ant leader there who can win election on his own (People like Sushma or Shivraj will/can never have courage to go against RSS). Asked by: Sandeep
A. Yes, the Advani camp is an exaggerated use of the expression given that so many have left or parted ways with him recently.
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