Dausa (ST) Lok Sabha constituency is one of the 25 parliamentary seats in Rajasthan. It includes a part of Alwar district, the entirety of Dausa district, and a portion of Jaipur district. It currently includes eight assembly segments: Bassi (ST) and Chaksu (SC) in Jaipur district, Thanagazi in Alwar district, and Bandikui, Mahuwa, Sikrai (SC), Dausa, and Lalsot (ST) in Dausa district.
Jaskaur Meena of the Bharatiya Janata Party is the current MP here, preceded by Harish Chandra Meena of the BJP, Kirodi Lal (independent), and Congress’s Sachin Pilot.
The key candidates for the seat this time, which will have polling on April 19 in the first round of the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections, are Kanhaiya Lal Meena of the BJP and Murari Lal Meena of the Congress.
Political Dynamics
2023 Assembly Elections: In the latest assembly elections, out of the eight seats in this Lok Sabha constituency, the BJP won five — Chaksu (SC), Bandikui, Mahuwa, Sikrai (SC), and Lalsot (SC). The Congress bagged three — Bassi (ST), Thanagazi, and Dausa.
BJP vs Congress: It’s a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress in the Dausa Lok Sabha constituency, which is dominated by the Meena caste, followed by the Gurjars. The fight is expected to be a close one as the Congress puts its best foot forward.
Pilot Bastion: This seat had been a bastion of the Congress party, particularly the Pilots since 1991, when Rajesh Pilot led the seat for almost the entire 90s decade until his demise. His wife, Rama Pilot, represented the seat till 2004 after which a young Sachin Pilot, their son, took over. It was in 2009 that Kirodi Lal Meena, an independent candidate, now BJP leader, breached this Pilot fortress.
Shift From Gurjar-Dominant to Meena-Dominant: In the delimitation exercise of 2008-09, four Gurjar-dominated assembly segments were removed from the Dausa seat and replaced by Meena-dominated Bassi, Chaksu, and Thanagazi. This is how the seat evolved from a Gurjar-dominated to a Meena-dominated one, and the Pilot effect, though strong among the Gurjars, was diminished in the constituency. Five out of eight MLAs are from the Meena community.
BJP Infighting: The BJP has its work cut out in the Dausa constituency. The party has been holding this seat since 2014 when Harish Chandra Meena won and he was replaced by Jaskaur Meena in 2019. The party has replaced the present MP Jaskaur Meena with Kanhaiya Lal Meena owing to fears of growing anti-incumbency.
Jaskaur Meena, observers say, has not had a particularly successful tenure as an MP as she had nothing significant to show at the end of it. Despite being a grassroots leader, Meena had been facing a wave of anti-incumbency.
Also, BJP’s Kirodi Lal Meena, who plays a major role in drawing votes for the seat, was opposed to her being granted a second ticket. Sources indicate that agriculture minister Kirodi Lal Meena sought tickets for his brother Jagmohan Meena while Jaskaur wanted the ticket to go to her daughter, Archana Meena.
This led to a tough internal struggle in the party and ultimately led to the BJP taking the middle path and appointing Kanhaiya Lal Meena as its candidate, a former MLA and state minister.
Low-profile candidate: Kanhaiya Lal Meena is a well-known name in Dausa. He served as an MLA from 1990 to 2009. The BJP did not grant him a ticket after this, and he lost as an independent candidate. In 2013 and 2018, he lost from the Bassi assembly seat on a BJP ticket and in 2023 he was not granted a ticket for the assembly elections.
Though considered a grassroots leader and a veteran in politics, he is known to keep a low profile, which may affect his performance in this election. Ultimately, he will rely on his popularity in the Bassi and Chaksu seats which may lean in his favour.
Kirodi Lal Meena Factor: Kirodi Lal Meena is the minister of agriculture and horticulture in the state, MLA from Sawai Madhopur and former MP from the Dausa constituency. He is particularly strong among Meenas and other backward castes in the region and commands considerable sway in Dausa.
Local reports say that his camp is miffed with the selection of the current candidate which has caused some anxiety in the party about the election campaign. However, in public, Meena has come out in support of Kanhaiya Lal unlike in 2019 when he had visibly opposed the party pick.
If Kirodi Lal Meena backs Kanhaiya Lal fully, the party is confident that it will win here. In 2022, Meena was in the news for allegedly receiving death threats after financially helping another Kanhaiyalal, a man who was killed in Udaipur in a religious hate crime.
Modi Factor: The Modi factor in the area has diminished in comparison to the 2014 and 2019 Modi waves in the state when caste affiliations had taken a backseat. In Dausa, the dominant Meena community is split on BJP rule, while Gurjars are unhappy to a large extent.
It remains to be seen whether ‘Modi magic’ can retain their support. Welfare schemes have been a success in the region and the backward communities have received benefits of Awas Yojana, free ration, Ujjwala scheme, Ayushman Bharat, etc. Improvement in connectivity including rail and highway infrastructure also help PM Modi showcase his achievements in Dausa. Moreover, national issues such as the Ram Mandir Inauguration have tremendous public support in this largely Hindu seat which the BJP aims to convert into votes.
Strongholds: In the 2023 assembly elections, the BJP won five MLAs out of the eight assembly segments. These seats include Chaksu (SC), Bandikui, Mahuwa, Sikrai (SC), and Lalsot (ST). The party is trying to build on that sentiment. The Bassi, Chaksu, Bandikui, and Lalsot seats seem to be leaning heavily towards the BJP. There is considerable support brewing in Sikrai and Mahuwa as well.
Caste Factors: However, Meenas (22.5%), comprising a large farmer community, are split between the BJP and the Congress. But indications are that the split may not be in favour of the BJP. The selection of a tall Meena candidate will help.
Gurjars (7.2%) are largely discontented as they did not get any representation in the state cabinet and may spoil the game for the BJP. In Dausa, the BJP is under threat of the Meena and Gurjar vote uniting against it, which could give an advantage to the Congress.
The Saini community leans towards the BJP here. Forward communities like Rajputs including Charans (1.8%) and Brahmins including Prajapatis (1.8%) will largely lean towards the Modi factor. The Bairwas (7.9%) will split between the BJP and Congress, though the BJP hopes to bag the entire vote.
Congress Pins Hopes on Murari Lal Meena: The Congress party is putting up a strong fight against the BJP in Dausa. It has fielded Murari Lal Meena, a close aide of Sachin Pilot who stood by him during his falling-out with the Ashok Gehlot faction of the Congress in the state.
In fact, he is said to have played a key role in the mutiny. He formerly held the position of MLA representing the Bandikui constituency from 2003 to 2008 and later served the Dausa constituency from 2008 to 2013. Additionally, he has served as both a cabinet minister and minister of state in the Government of Rajasthan.
Meena is seen as an earnest leader, has a great rapport with his constituents, and is popular in Dausa. Meena is seen as an aggressive member of the caste group, which works both to his advantage and disadvantage.
He was able to consolidate the Meena vote and register a victory in the Dausa assembly segment in 2023 despite the seat being an unreserved general seat. This victory demonstrates the formidability of Murarli Lal Meena who is being seen as a brilliant pick by the Congress.
The Pilot faction also secures him a large chunk of the OBC vote as Pilot holds sway among the Gurjars to a great extent. It is also to be noted that Meena is the husband of Savita Meena who contested in the election in 2019 against Jaskaur Meena.
Savita raised the Congress’s vote share to 44% and lost by a margin of only 78,000 votes. Her husband aims to build on those gains and win the seat this time.
The desired winning potion of Meena-Gurjar unity is evident ahead of the polls and this united bloc is leaning towards the Congress, say observers on the ground. Muslims (2.5%) are also poised to vote for the Congress. The Mali vote is also leaning towards the Congress. Three seats, Sikrai (SC), Dausa and Thanagazi, are leaning strongly towards the Congress in general.
Pilot Factor: The Pilot factor is strong here as Sachin Pilot continues to be an appealing leader among Gurjars, especially. As a former bastion of the Pilot family, the seat continues to resonate with Sachin Pilot’s politics.
Lack of a national leader: However, the Congress faces a lack of national leadership. Compared with the Modi factor, the Congress has no such counter in the form of Rahul Gandhi or Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and that negatively affects it during the elections.
Key Constituency Issues
Credit For Gangapur-Dausa Railway: The BJP seeks credit for this railway line which was completed under it in 2024. The concept was floated by Rajesh Pilot in 1997 and the Congress wants to take credit for the development, which was delayed for two decades.
Both the Congress and BJP are now engaged in a tug-of-war over taking credit for the project. The BJP, represented by ex-MLA Kanhaiya Lal Meena, claims that the project was realised under PM Modi’s leadership. On the other hand, the Congress attributes the entire credit to Rajesh Pilot, emphasising that the project would have been completed much earlier had he been alive.
Both parties are actively trying to leverage the completion of the railway line to sway voters in their favour, especially in the hilly and backward areas where the project is expected to have a significant impact on daily labourers and workers.
Additionally, the railway line is seen as crucial not only for the residents of Lalsot but also for the Indian Railways, as it interconnects important railway routes like Delhi-Ahmedabad and Delhi-Mumbai.
Water Issues: Water shortage constitutes a major issue in the seat. The groundwater table is receding. Farmers struggle to acquire water for irrigation, whereas the general public is facing a drinking water crisis as the high fluoride content in borewell water has health risks. The ERCP water project has been a longstanding demand of the people here, and the BJP government has started work on it.
Farmers’ Issues: Apart from a water crisis, farmers’ demands include higher MSP, better crop insurance, debt waiver, and more fertiliser subsidies. In the winter, temperatures drop sharply, which has affected wheat farming here, a dominant crop in Dausa. The farmers who survive on wheat cultivation are left worried owing to a change in the colour of crop leaves from green to yellow in low temperatures.
No industries and unemployment: Dausa does not have any major industries to boost employment. This means unemployment and leads to migration to nearby districts which adds to the people’s woes.
Electricity: During the hot summers, the problem of overloading and tripping comes up to inconvenience the people. Load shedding, especially in rural areas, where farmers require electricity for irrigation, causes trouble for the people.
ST status for Gurjars: The demand for ST status, though not as pronounced this time, has been a longstanding one of the Gurjars who fall under the OBC category. This is opposed by the Meena community vehemently. The underlying caste conflict between the Meena and Gurjar communities escalated during the Gurjar agitation for reservation, seeking Scheduled Tribe status, and the subsequent resistance from the Meenas to share their quota, which occurred between 2006 and 2007.
Agnipath scheme: The region is also opposed to the Agnipath scheme, as permanent recruitment in the army is a dream for many youths here.
Voter Demographics (2011 census)
- Total voters (2019): 1720026
- Rural voters: 88.6%
- Urban voters: 11.4%
- Literacy rate: 59.53%
Social Demographics
- SC voters: 21.1%
- ST voters: 25.9%
- Meena (ST): 22.5%
- Gurjar (OBC): 7.4%
Religious Demographics
- Hindu: ~96%
- Muslim: 2.5%
- Jain: 0.5%
- Christian: 0.08%
- Sikh: 0.31%
Infrastructure
Highway Connectivity: Highway connectivity has significantly improved which has been a much-needed dose of development for the people. The region has been connected with the Delhi-Mumbai Expressway, the foundation of which was laid in 2019 and will be built at a cost of Rs 1,00,000 crore. The first phase of the Delhi-Dausa-Lalsot section of the expressway was inaugurated by PM Modi in 2023. Dausa is expected to benefit greatly from the 246-km stretch of expressway as opportunities for employment, tourism, and business will emerge.
ERCP Water Project: The state BJP government is working on the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project, signing a tripartite MoU with New Delhi and Madhya Pradesh. ERCP is an ambitious project of over Rs 40,000 crore, which will help augment irrigation facilities in an area of around 2 lakh hectares in 13 districts of Rajasthan including Dausa. This is a crucial drinking and irrigation water project catering to a longstanding demand. The initiative was envisioned by the BJP administration under the leadership of former chief minister Vasundhara Raje in November 2017.
Gangapur-Dausa Rail Line: The project, completed this year, was approved in 1996-97, had a total estimated cost of Rs 820 crore, and covers a distance of 92.67 kilometres. It is expected to have a significant impact on daily labourers and workers. Additionally, the railway line is seen as crucial not only for the residents of Lalsot but also for the Indian Railways, as it interconnects important railway lines like Delhi-Ahmedabad and Delhi-Mumbai.
Amrit Bharat Scheme: The Dausa railway station is all set to be revamped, renovated, and beautified. It is being reported that a women’s waiting room, lighting system, public information system, and a mixed waiting room will be constructed.
Comments
0 comment