New Delhi: For the first time since the second phase of Uttar Pradesh elections, Muslims have emerged as the most sought-after vote block. Polling in the 11 districts in phase 5 will to a large extent be influenced by the Muslim vote — whether it splits between the Samajwadi party-Congress alliance and BSP, or votes one of them en masse.
This is because Muslims dominate districts like Bahraich (56%), Nanpara (73%) and Qaisergunj (60%) which are going to the polls on Monday. Other districts like Shrawasti, Gonda, Siddharth Nagar and Balrampur also have sizeable Muslim populations.
So, the question of who wins over this Muslim belt in parts of Awadh and Nepal-bordering districts of Poorvanchal could hold the key to winning this phase.
On paper, the BSP seems to hold the edge. It has fielded 16 Muslim candidates against nine fielded by the SP. Also, the BSP is counting on the sizeable number of Chamar votes in the area.
On the ground, there is a division in the community. The Ulemas, both from Deoband and Barelvi sects, seem to be swaying in favour of BSP. But the SP-Congress combine seems to have won over the Muslims on ground.
This also begs the question of whether the BJP will benefit from the ensuing confusion and whether through their loyal and small but influential upper caste voters and with the help of some non-Yadav sections, edge out their competition.
"There are two reasons why Muslims will side with the alliance. First is because of the number of schemes Akhilesh has launched which have benefitted us. Like Lohia Awaas Yojana, Vriddha pension scheme, ambulances etc," said Sattar Hussain, a farmer from Magoriya village in Balha constituency.
The second reason, he said, was the perception that the SP-Congress combine has won the trust of Muslims in phases that have gone to polls so far.
"Voting for the BSP candidate will be wasting the vote because he won't be from the winning party and hence won't be able to get our job done."
Qadri Zubair Ahmad, a Maulana at Nur ul Uloom, a Deobandi sect in Bahraich, concedes that a section of Muslim voters will go with the BSP. But he doesn't think it will affect the prospects of the SP-Congress combine or the BJP much.
"The talk here is of voting for secular SP. Though some Ulemas have talked of supporting the BSP, it won’t have much effect on the ground. Akhilesh has worked on the ground and it is in our favour."
Qayyum Baig, who runs an audio recording shop in Bahraich, also echoes Maulana Ahmad.
"Vote will be split, no doubt. But it won't be a halfway split. Only a small section of Muslims will vote for the BSP. This is because we know that voting for the BSP is just like voting for the BJP."
It seems that despite having almost apologised for her party's alliance with the BJP several times in her rallies and claims that she would rather sit in opposition than ally with the BJP have not had much effect on Muslims.
The mistrust among Muslims, who fear a repeat of a BSP-BJP alliance, isn't over yet.
The alliance between the SP and Congress also seems to have sent a positive message on the ground. Also, the fact that Akhilesh has emerged stronger after the family struggle is helping make the mind of Muslim voters.
But the fact that Akhilesh hasn't spoken out explicitly about Muslims and their troubles has fuelled rumours about his soft Hindutva agenda.
And this is where Mayawati is scoring. According to Syed Arshad Jamaal Ashraf, Maulana at Choti taqika, a Bareilvi sect masjid: “I haven't heard Akhilesh even utter the word 'Muslim', leave aside his opinion on us. Mulayam himself said that his son wasn't a Muslim sympathiser. The fact is that the SP has done nothing for us. They didn't give us 18% reservation that they had promised. They didn't release Muslim boys falsely implicated on terror charges."
He also added that the ruling SP candidate in Bahraich had built one educational institution in 25 years.
"What have they given us? They have not even worked for the betterment of our children. The SP has treated us as vote banks only. It is in their reign that 500 small and big riots happened. Mayawati, for all her faults, would never allow a single riot."
Just for the sheer number of Muslim candidates it has fielded, the BSP is likely to make some gains in constituencies like Prayagpur where only the BSP has fielded a Muslim candidate, and where a Dalit-Muslim alliance seems to be working. Also in places like Qaisergunj, where the SP has fielded a candidate with a poor election record.
But this formula of fielding such a huge number of Muslim candidates also is showing its pitfalls — not every Muslim candidate is a good ground leader.
For instance, in Matera, the BSP has fielded a candidate from outside, which is working against the party. It has also been losing out on word of mouth campaigns run by other parties.
In seats like Balha, which is a reserved seat, the BSP was even being considered the winner. But word of mouth campaign about the BSP-BJP alliance of the past seems to have brought the SP-Congress alliance back in the game not just in this seat, but in several others too.
Winning this phase, and its Muslims, will be crucial for the alliance and the BSP is looking to win seats in Mau and Azamgarh for which votes will be polled in next phase.
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