Tamil Nadu has always remained a hard nut to crack for the BJP. Since Independence, the BJP has opened its account only once in Assembly elections. In 2001, the saffron party won four Assembly seats in the state in an alliance with the DMK. In the next two Assembly polls - in 2006 and 2011 - the lotus failed to bloom in Dravida heartland.
This time, the BJP is once again hoping to wrest at least Mylapore seat in Chennai back. It has fielded K Nagarajan in this Tamil Iyer dominated constituency. Some say at least 60,000 voters in this seat of 2.5 lakh voters are Brahmins. In the remaining three seats it won in 2001, the chances are bleak, claim party insiders.
Out of total 234 seats in the state, the BJP has declared candidates for 168 seats. It has allotted 45 seats to Indiya Jananayaga Katchi, 24 seats to Akila Indiya Makkal Kalvi Munnetra Kazhagam and surprisingly one seat to Muslim Munnetra Kazhagam. The BJP is also supporting its Indiya Makkal Kalvi Munnetra Kazhagam (IMKMK) candidate in Thiruvallur.
Tamilisai Sundararajan, the state BJP president and author of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s biography in Tamil is contesting from Virugampakkam.
No Modi Magic
During his Lok Sabha campaign, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had extensively toured Tamil Nadu trying to woo Dravidian voters. But, the BJP-led alliance - comprising Vijayakanth's DMDK, Dr Ramdoss' PMK, Vaiko's MDMK, IJK, New Justice Party and KMDK - managed to win just two seats, out of total 39 seats in the state. The BJP's Pon Radhakrishnan won from Kanyakumari and PMK's Dr. Anbumani Ramadoss won from Dharmapuri.
However the alliance polled more votes than the main opposition party DMK in 2014 LS polls. The situation seems to have changed entirely in the last two years. All major Dravidian parties have shunned the BJP in the state by refusing to share seats with it. After being snubbed by even recent allies like PMK, DMDK and MDMK, the saffron party is now forced to go almost solo, sharing 25% of seats with minor and fringe parties to stay relevant.
What ails BJP in TN
According to journalist Aravindan Neelakandan, the BJP has no strong strategy for Tamil Nadu. In an article for 'Swarajya' magazine, he wrote "Like Lord Hanuman who forgot his own strength, the ones who can accomplish this task sit bewildered. Every other day, a state BJP leader makes a statement inviting political prodigals to their camp, only to be shunned by the latter. This was not the party we knew in the 1980s and surely this is not the party that could conduct itself with an air of superiority in the state politics in the 1990s. What has gone wrong now?
The harsh truths are these: Instead of positioning itself as a strong alternative to Dravidian politics, not just in rhetoric but also in words and deeds, the party has allowed itself to be swayed by Dravidian elements. For example, instead of nurturing its own band of leadership rooted in Hindutva ideology, BJP wasted time and effort in giving room to leaders like Thirunavukkarasar, a notorious party-hopper, who in turn filled the important posts of BJP with his own henchmen".
Invent Alternative
But, BJP's problems are much bigger than this. It has failed to understand the complexities of Tamil politics. What may work in rest of India, will not work in Tamil Nadu. It requires a highly localised approach. Tamil politics is known for competitive populism. Even if it has now reached a saturation point. Unless the BJP comes out with an alternative to counter this, it can't hope to make an impact in state politics. The legend of Tamil Nadu journalism, the late RMT Sambandam had made these observations as far back as 1999. He had said that unless BJP invents a different kind of politics which is TN-specific, it will never reach a double digit figure in the state Assembly.
All political pundits suggest the BJP should provide an alternative to Dravidian politics to win elections. But, only the BJP can invent that alternative. Till then, it will have to remain a fringe force in one of India’s key states.
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