New Delhi: The Indian Express-CNN-IBN-CSDS pre-poll survey in Uttar Pradesh shows both the ruling Samajwadi Party and main Opposition Bahujan Samaj Party running neck-and-neck in the popularity stakes.
The survey says that if the Assembly elections were held in the entire state in the third week of March, the SP and the BSP would have been the front-runners, leaving all others - including Congress scion Rahul Gandhi - far behind.
Importantly, the poll also shows that elections to the Assembly are most likely to throw up a hung House.
This means government formation could well become a post-poll exercise and the real drama in will begin after the ballot has been cast.
So what does the political fraternity - especially the key players - think of the power equations?
"Who really believes that Rahul Gandhi is in the race for the chief minister?" - Salman Khushid, Congress.
The power equations
The Congress does not appear to be in a position to translate its potential support into votes and was not placed any better than its worst-ever show in 2002. With Rahul Gandhi charisma also not likely to turn its fortunes, the party has decided to go on a defensive.
“I think it’s the question that matters – who really believes that he is in the race for the chief minister? If you were to ask a direct question of popularity, he would outstep the others very fast. Given that he is now hands on and is coming into the campaign, you will see a dramatic shift of emphasis and response,” said Congress leader Salman Khurshid.
"Amitabh doesn’t say that there is no crime in UP. All he says is that the crime is less here." - Amar Singh, Samajwadi Party.
This is a finding that the party chooses to ignore and insists it’s still in the running for the CM’s chair.
“This is what your survey claims. In reality, the popularity of Mulayam, Mayawati and Kalyan is the same in Uttar Pradesh,” said BJP leader Prakash Javadekar.
Surprisingly, the ruling Samajwadi Party is just marginally ahead of arch rival BSP by about one percentage point.
In the popularity ratings too, both chief ministerial candidates are neck and neck – Mulayam on 30 per cent and Mayawati on 29 per cent.
Crime and punishment
However, this hasn’t convinced the ruling party enough to admit that BSP is its arch rival. SP General Secretary Amar Singh maintained that Mulayam’s regime is being selectively targeted.
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“Post Chhattisgarh and Ratlam incidents, you can’t say that crime in only in UP, it’s a social menace which is spread all over the country. But selective targeting of Mulayam Singh’s regime is on as all major stalwarts of BJP, BSP and Congress are from UP. They are all very cohesive in attacking in us,” he said.
Amar Singh also defended superstar Amitabh Bachchan’s Uttar Pradesh mein dum hai, kyunki zurm yahan kam hai campaign. “Amitabh doesn’t say that there is no crime in UP. All he says is that the crime is less here,” he argued.
Javadekar disagreed and said there was a nexus between administration and criminals. “: It’s not the quantity of crime that’s of concern in UP. The nexus is clear
Minority report
According to the survey, lower OBC and Muslim voters are not so firm in their choice as yet and could swing closer to the election day.
The Congress stands to gain if the voters, especially the Muslim voters, shift from their first preference to their second preference.
"We have a seven per cent advantage in our OBC votebank." - Prakash Javadekar, BJP.
Samajwadi Party having burnt its bridges with the BSP and the Congress, might need to enter into a coalition with the BJP and risks its Muslim vote base.
However, Amar Singh denied that Opposition could make any difference to their strategy. “V P Singh and their accomplices are non starters and the Opposition has not been able to make a cohesive front against us on this issue. As far as minority is concerned, they have seen the role played by Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi during the Saddam execution. Minorities know they have been taken for a ride,” said Amar Singh.
The upper castes too seem to have withdrawn from BJP, unlike during the mandir movement days when the party had the support of 60-70 per cent voters.
“Our basic votebank was always for the OBC. Then, Congress came in and took the share, Kalyan Singh fought against us and got four per cent, Apna Dal got three per cent. But both of them are with us this time and so we have an advantage of seven per cent,” said Javadekar.
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