Mumbai: Even as the country struggles to get the balance of trade into the positive territory, global bank HSBC on Monday said the country's imports would rise faster than the exports in the next five years.
"India's import growth will overtake its export growth in the next five years. The forecast is consistent with a developing global shift where traditionally export-driven emerging markets will become global trade hubs and important facilitators of international economic growth," HSBC said in a report.
According to the bank, the country's imports will grow at an average of seven per cent annually over the next five years, dwarfing the export growth, which is estimated at 5 per cent.
World Trade Organisation said the country's exports grew 2.1 per cent to $78.64 billion in the January-March period this year versus the 21.8 per cent growth in imports to $122.47 billion.
The slowdown in export growth is attributed to issues with the global economic environment while the elevated crude oil prices have meant the imports are also high.
This has put a strain on the current account deficit, which was at its widest at 4.3 per cent for FY12 and is seen as one of the factors contributing to the recent fall in rupee.
HSBC also predicted that the country would be the fastest growing importer and exporter in the next five years.
It said their exports to China would grow at an average of 8 per cent till 2016 while imports would be up 11 per cent.
Among the emerging trade corridors, HSBC said the country's exports to Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia are expected to grow at around 11 per cent while those to Nigeria and UAE will be up by 10 per cent.
On the imports front, Oman will lead with a growth of 15.7 per cent, followed by Brazil at 14 per cent, it said.
The HSBC report, titled 'Global Connections', also said confidence in India has fallen in the last six months, citing its trade confidence index.
Comments
0 comment