New Delhi: In the 2012 US presidential election Facebook was called the "the real presidential swing state" and helped Barack Obama win a second term. This influence of Facebook in determining which button voters press at the polling booth is likely to affect results in as much as 30 per cent of the Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 general elections, says a study by IRIS Knowledge Foundation and the Internet and Mobile Association of India.
"In today's India, the number of social media users to achieve this end has reached a tipping point. May be not in every one of the 543 constituencies but certainly in a significant number of them to warrant the conclusion that they have the power to influence elections and therefore government formation," the report titled Social Media & Lok Sabha Elections says.
Terming Facebook as the new votebank Indian politicians now have to worry about, the study identifies 160 Lok Sabha constituencies as 'high impact', in which the number of Facebook users are more than the margin of victory of the winner in the last Lok Sabha election, or where Facebook users account for over 10 per cent of the voting population.
The study has also identified 'medium impact' and 'low impact' constituencies. 67 constituencies are categorised as 'medium impact' while 60 are 'low impact' and the remainder 256 have been classified as 'no impact' constituiences.
Maharashtra has the maximum 21 high impact constituencies followed by Gujarat (17). Uttar Pradesh has 14 high impact constituencies, while Karnataka has 12 such seats. Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala has 12, 11 and 10 such seats respectively. Madhya Pradesh has nine high impact constituencies while Delhi has seven. Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan have five high impact constituencies each while Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand and West Bengal have four such constituencies.
Analysing the wins of the two main political parties, the study finds that, "75 of the 206 seats won (36 per cent) by the Congress and 43 of the 144 seats (30 per cent) where they finished second are counted among the high impact constituencies."
In the case of the BJP, the findings said that, "44 of the 116 seats (37 per cent) they won and 50 of the 110 seats (46 per cent) they lost fall in the high impact category."
The advantages of election campaigning on social media vis-à-vis traditional forms of campaigning has also been highlighted, "Unlike traditional campaigning which is mandatorily required to come to a close 48 hours before the polls, it is unlikely that the Election Commission will be able to legislate and enforce silence on social media networks as it would be tantamount to stifling the voice of the people. Which means that any development even in the hours of polling can potentially influence voter behaviour as the information will spread like wild fire. What this also means is that savvy candidates can harness the power of social media to unleash a guerrilla campaign on their opponents without giving them the time to respond"
The researchers accumulated Facebook data available publicly to determine age and residency of Facebook users in India and compared it with data from the Election Commission for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.
The study acknowledges that its approach "can be dismissed for being simple to the point of being simplistic," but asserts that "No contestant can afford to ignore social media in the next Lok Sabha election. Just as they have budgets for traditional media spend and on the ground activity, it is important that they have a specific budget for social media activity."
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High impact constituencies
Constituency
Winner in 2009
Andhra Pradesh
Hyderabad
Asaduddin Owaisi
Andhra Pradesh
Visakhapatnam
Daggubati Purandeswari
Andhra Pradesh
Vijayawada
Lagadapati Raja Gopal
Andhra Pradesh
Guntur
Rayapati Sambasiva Rao
Andhra Pradesh
Rajahmundry
Aruna Kumar Vundavalli
Andhra Pradesh
Kakinada
M.M.Pallamraju
Andhra Pradesh
Tirupati
Chinta Mohan
Andhra Pradesh
Nellore
Mekapati Rajamohan Reddy
Andhra Pradesh
Karimnagar
Ponnam Prabhakar
Andhra Pradesh
Narasaraopet
Modugula Venugopala Reddy
Andhra Pradesh
Chittoor
Naramalli Sivaprasad
Arunachal Pradesh
Arunachal West
Takam Sanjoy
Assam
Dibrugarh
Paban Singh Ghatowar
Assam
Silchar
Kabindra Purkayastha
Assam
Tezpur
Joseph Toppo
Bihar
Pataliputra
Ranjan Prasad Yadav
Bihar
Patna Sahib
Shatrughan Sinha
Bihar
Muzaffarpur
Captain Jai Narayan Prasad Nishad
Bihar
Buxar
Jagada Nand Singh
Chandigarh
Chandigarh
Pawan Kumar Bansal
Chattisgarh
Raipur
Ramesh Bais
Chattisgarh
Bilaspur
Dilip Singh Judev
Chattisgarh
Korba
Charan Das Mahant
Chattisgarh
Durg
Saroj Pandey
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
Dadar & Nagar Haveli
Patel Natubhai Gomanbhai
Goa
North Goa
Shripad Yesso Naik
Goa
South Goa
Cosme Francisco Caitano Sardinha
Gujarat
Surat
Shrimati Darshana Vikram Jardosh
Gujarat
Rajkot
Kuvarjibhai Mohanbhai Bavalia
Gujarat
Bhavnagar
Rajendrasinh Ghanshyamsinh Rana (Rajubhai Rana)
Gujarat
Jamnagar
Ahir Vikrambhai Arjanbhai Madam
Gujarat
Kheda
Dinsha Patel
Gujarat
Valsad
Kishanbhai Vestabhai Patel
Gujarat
Panchmahal
Chauhan Prabhatsinh Pratapsinh
Gujarat
Junagadh
Solanki Dinubhai Boghabhai
Gujarat
Bharuch
Mansukhbhai Dhanjibhai Vasava
Gujarat
Banaskantha
Gadhvi Mukeshkumar Bheiravdanji
Gujarat
Anand
Solanki Bharatbhai Madhavsinh
Gujarat
Mahesana
Patel Jayshreeben Kanubhai
Gujarat
Sabarkantha
Chauhan Mahendrasinh
Gujarat
Patan
Jagdish Thakor
Gujarat
Surendranagar
Koli Patel Somabhai Gandalal
Gujarat
Ahmedabad East
Harin Pathak
Gujarat
Ahmedabad West
Dr. Solanki Kiritbhai Premajibhai
Haryana
Gurgaon
Inderjit Singh
Haryana
Faridabad
Avtar Singh Bhadana
Haryana
Ambala
Selja
Haryana
Sirsa
Ashok Tanwar
Haryana
Hisar
Bhajan Lal S/O Kheraj
Himachal Pradesh
Mandi
Virbhadra Singh
Himachal Pradesh
Kangra
Dr. Rajan Sushant
Jammu & Kashmir
Srinagar
Farooq Abdullah
Jammu & Kashmir
Jammu
Madan Lal Sharma
Jammu & Kashmir
Anantnag
Mirza Mehboob Beg
Jammu & Kashmir
Udhampur
Ch. Lal Singh
Jharkhand
Ranchi
Subodh Kant Sahay
Jharkhand
Jamshedpur
Arjun Munda
Jharkhand
Dhanbad
Pashupati Nath Singh
Jharkhand
Singhbhum
Madhu Kora
Karnataka
Mysore
Adagur H Vishwanath
Karnataka
Dakshina Kannada
Nalin Kumar Kateel
Karnataka
Gulbarga
Mallikarjun Kharge
Karnataka
Bellary
J. Shantha
Karnataka
Davanagere
G.M. Siddeswara
Karnataka
Udupi Chikmagalur
D.V.Sadananda Gowda
Karnataka
Tumkur
G.S. Basavaraj
Karnataka
Uttara Kannada
Anantkumar Hegde
Karnataka
Bangalore Rural
H.D.Kumaraswamy
Karnataka
Bangalore North
D. B. Chandre Gowda
Karnataka
Bangalore Central
P. C. Mohan
Karnataka
Bangalore South
Ananth Kumar
Kerala
Thiruvananthapuram
Shashi Tharoor
Kerala
Ernakulam
Prof. K V Thomas
Kerala
Palakkad
M.B. Rajesh
Kerala
Kottayam
Jose K.Mani (Karingozheckal)
Kerala
Thrissur
P C Chacko
Kerala
Alappuzha
K.C Venugopal
Kerala
Kollam
N.Peethambarakurup
Kerala
Malappuram
E. Ahamed
Kerala
Kozhikode
M.K. Raghavan
Kerala
Kannur
K. Sudhakaran
Madhya Pradesh
Indore
Sumitra Mahajan (Tai)
Madhya Pradesh
Bhopal
Kailash Joshi
Madhya Pradesh
Gwalior
Yashodhara Raje Scindia
Madhya Pradesh
Jabalpur
Rakesh Singh
Madhya Pradesh
Ujjain
Guddu Premchand
Madhya Pradesh
Rewa
Deoraj Singh Patel
Madhya Pradesh
Satna
Ganesh Singh
Madhya Pradesh
Dewas
Sajjan Singh Verma
Madhya Pradesh
Dhar
Gajendra Singh Rajukhedi
Maharashtra
Pune
Kalmadi Suresh
Maharashtra
Nagpur
Muttemwar Vilasrao Baburaoji
Maharashtra
Aurangabad
Chandrakant Khaire
Maharashtra
Nashik
Sameer Bhujbal
Maharashtra
Thane
Dr.Sanjeev Ganesh Naik
Maharashtra
Kolhapur
Sadashivrao Dadoba Mandlik
Maharashtra
Kalyan
Anand Prakash Paranjape
Maharashtra
Latur
Awale Jaywant Gangaram
Maharashtra
Dhule
Sonawane Pratap Narayanrao
Maharashtra
Sangli
Pratik Prakashbapu Patil
Maharashtra
Amravati
Adsul Anandrao Vithoba
Maharashtra
Jalna
Danve Raosaheb Dadarao
Maharashtra
Ahmadnagar
Gandhi Dilipkumar Mansukhlal
Maharashtra
Osmanabad
Patil Padamsinha Bajirao
Maharashtra
Chandrapur
Ahir Hansaraj Gangaram
Maharashtra
Mumbai North
Sanjay Brijkishorlal Nirupam
Maharashtra
Mumbai North West
Ad.Kamat Gurudas Vasant
Maharashtra
Mumbai North East
Sanjay Dina Patil
Maharashtra
Mumbai North Central
Dutt Priya Sunil
Maharashtra
Mumbai South Central
Eknath M. Gaikwad
Maharashtra
Mumbai South
Deora Milind Murli
NCT OF Delhi
Chandni Chowk
Kapil Sibal
NCT OF Delhi
North East Delhi
Jai Prakash Agarwal
NCT OF Delhi
East Delhi
Sandeep Dikshit
NCT OF Delhi
New Delhi
Ajay Makan
NCT OF Delhi
North West Delhi
Krishna Tirath
NCT OF Delhi
West Delhi
Mahabal Mishra
NCT OF Delhi
South Delhi
Ramesh Kumar
Orissa
Sambalpur
Amarnath Pradhan
Punjab
Ludhiana
Manish Tewari
Punjab
Amritsar
Navjot Singh Sidhu
Punjab
Hoshiarpur
Santosh Chowdhary
Punjab
Patiala
Preneet Kaur
Punjab
Gurdaspur
Partap Singh Bajwa
Rajasthan
Jaipur
Mahesh Joshi
Rajasthan
Jodhpur
Chandresh Kumari
Rajasthan
Kota
Ijyaraj Singh
Rajasthan
Bikaner
Arjun Ram Meghwal
Rajasthan
Tonk-Sawai Madhopur
Namo Narain
Tamil Nadu
Coimbatore
Natarajan.P.R.
Tamil Nadu
Salem
Semmalai S
Tamil Nadu
Tirunelveli
Ramasubbu S
Tamil Nadu
Erode
Ganeshamurthi.A.
Tamil Nadu
Madurai
Alagiri M.K
Tamil Nadu
Viluppuram
Anandan M
Tamil Nadu
Virudhunagar
Manicka Tagore
Tamil Nadu
Kancheepuram
Viswanathan.P
Tamil Nadu
Sivaganga
Chidambaram P
Tamil Nadu
Chennai North
Elangovan T.K.S
Tamil Nadu
Chennai South
Rajendran C
Tamil Nadu
Chennai Central
Dayanidhi Maran
Uttar Pradesh
Lucknow
Lal Ji Tandon
Uttar Pradesh
Kanpur
Sri Prakash Jaiswal
Uttar Pradesh
Gautam Buddh Nagar
Surendra Singh Nagar
Uttar Pradesh
Allahabad
Kunwar Rewati Raman Singh Alias Mani Ji
Uttar Pradesh
Varanasi
Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi
Uttar Pradesh
Agra
Dr. Ramshankar
Uttar Pradesh
Ghaziabad
Rajnath Singh
Uttar Pradesh
Meerut
Rajendra Agarwal
Uttar Pradesh
Bareilly
Praveen Singh Aron
Uttar Pradesh
Aligarh
Raj Kumari Chauhan
Uttar Pradesh
Moradabad
Mohammed Azharuddin
Uttar Pradesh
Muzaffarnagar
Kadir Rana
Uttar Pradesh
Chandauli
Ramkishun
Uttar Pradesh
Kheri
Zafar Ali Naqvi
Uttarakhand
Almora
Pradeep Tamta
West Bengal
Howrah
Ambica Banerjee
West Bengal
Balurghat
Prasanta Kumar Majumdar
West Bengal
Kolkata Dakshin
Mamata Banerjee
West Bengal
Kolkata Uttar
Sudip Bandyopadhyay
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