India-Pak peace process likely to be stalled

New Delhi: India's intelligence agencies have been burning the midnight oil assessing various threat scenarios following Benazir Bhutto's assassination. They believe that the current unrest in Pakistan will be contained and the army will ensure that stability is restored.

India National security advisor M K Narayanan indicated that Benazir Bhutto's assassination has security implications for both India and Pakistan.

He told the media in Trivandrum that, Bhutto's assassination by terrorist outfits was a great loss to India and the world at large.

“Both countries face a common threat of terrorism. It is indeed a matter of great concern for the security of India and Pakistan,” says MK Nararanan.

However, the successful strike on Benazir could encourage more stepped up violence including suicide attacks and one could even see groups like the Lashkar-i-Toiba and the Jaish-i-Mohammad take on a higher profile.

Ajai Sahni, an analyst, says that the radical elements are likely to pose grave threat in the months to come.

Indian agencies are also examining other possibilities that may shape up with the current situation in Pakistan.

For South Block the emergence of fault line in Pakistan warn not only of state collapse but also the nightmare scenario of the government striking a deal with the militant groups to ensure it's own survival. This has happened in the past with pro-Taliban groups in Waziristan. However the big question that needs to be answered is whether Musharraf could be inching towards another such deal.

Throwing light on the regional instability, Ajay Sahni says that striking deals with militant groups may be a dangerous element. This will boost the morale of the militant outfits and they are likely to build up their organisation and destructive nuclear weapons.

With the unfortunate evens unfolding in Pakistan, it seems that there is likely to be no movement forward in the India Pakistan peace process. However, the regret remains that Benazir’s promise of a new beginning with New Delhi, may remain a distant reality.