Slim chance of India reaching Azlan Shah final

India lived another day at the Sultan Azlan Shah hockey tournament on Thursday when they beat archrivals Pakistan 2-1 with a goal in the dying minutes, but whether they play New Zealand for the trophy or not will be decided by how the last two round-robin matches pan out at Ipoh on Saturday.

Looking at the points table, New Zealand are already through to the 1st-2nd place playoff with 12 points from five matches, rendering their last match against Korea - who are already out of the finals race - inconsequential. Argentina and India are locked at nine points, but with a game in hand against the out-of-contention Malaysians, all Argentina need is a win to seal the second spot on the points table.

The other team that can spoil India's chances is Great Britain. Currently at eight points from five matches, the Britons must beat Pakistan on Saturday and then hope Argentina lose to Malaysia. Should that happen, Britain will move to the second spot with 11 points, pushing Argentina down to third.

But if Argentina lose to Malaysia and Pakistan beat Great Britain, both India and Argentina will end up with nine points, leaving it to the goal difference to decide who plays New Zealand for the top spot on the podium.

India have scored 12 goals but conceded 15, which calculates to -3 for the five-time Sultan Azlan Shah Cup winners. But India will leapfrog Argentina on goal difference if Malaysia beat the South Americans by a two-goal margin.

In case both Argentina and Great Britain draw their matches, then Argentina will be through with 10 points while Great Britain and India will be left to fight for the bronze medal with nine points each. But a defeat for Argentina and draw for Great Britain will have all three - India, Great Britain and Argentina - level on nine points, bringing the goal difference into play.

Bottom Line:

Malaysia must beat Argentina by a two-goal margin and Great Britain must lose to Pakistan. That's the clear-cut route for India to sneak through and play New Zealand for the trophy on Sunday.