India’s tiger population is estimated to be 3,682 as the average with the upper estimate at 3,925, according to a detailed count four months after the central government announced the minimum estimate to be at least 3,167.
The final report was released on International Tiger Day on Saturday and follows a further data analysis by Wildlife Institute of India (WII) in Dehradun from tiger presence areas both covered by camera traps and those that are not. In April, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced the conclusion of the All India Tiger Estimation (2022) at a grand event.
The minimum estimate of the tiger population stood at 3,167 at that time, which was arrived at using data from camera-trapped space and further extrapolation in model-predicted space. This means that the actual number of tigers individually confirmed through camera traps was 3,080 but when extrapolated to regions not covered by camera traps, using models the number was likely to be around 3,167. In 2018, the survey had photographed 2,461 unique tigers – which was fewer than this number.
Madhya Pradesh has largest tiger population
The report showed a notable increase in tiger population in central India and Shivalik Hills and Gangetic plains, especially in Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Maharashtra. In fact, MP now has the largest tiger population at 785, followed by Karnataka at 563, Uttarakhand at 560 and Maharashtra at 444.
The tiger abundance within tiger reserves was recorded to be highest in Corbett in Uttarakhand (260), followed by Bandipur (150) and Nagarhole (141) in Karnataka, Bandhavgarh in MP (135), Dudhwa in Uttar Pradesh (135), Mudumalai in Tamil Nadu (114), Kanha in MP (105), Kaziranga in Assam (104), Sundarbans in West Bengal (100), Tadoba in Maharashtra (97), Sathyamangalam in Tamil Nadu (85), and Pench again in MP (77).
The country counts its tigers every four years – an exercise led by the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA). The methodology for data analysis, however, has been questioned by some wildlife experts and scientists.
Since the estimates come from what are called ‘model-based inferences’, they say these ‘model uncertainties’ have produced inconsistent results in the past implying that such approaches can produce a wide range of numbers.
“The 2023 report is notably briefer than previous reports and raises concerns. The issue of sampling-based over dispersion continues, affecting the reliability of tiger estimates particularly when assessing population changes,” said Dr Arjun Gopalaswamy, a statistical ecologist who is the founder and chief scientist of Carnassials Global.
Worrying trends in some regions
The drastic decline in tiger population in the Western Ghats continues to raise concerns. A critical biodiversity spot, the region has witnessed an increase in human-wildlife conflict with the endangered big cat at persistent risk outside the well-protected areas.
Disquieting trends were also observed in some states like Mizoram, Nagaland, Jharkhand, Goa, Chhattisgarh and Arunachal Pradesh that reported small tiger populations. Local tiger population has become extinct in several areas, including some tiger reserves.
Poaching still remains a serious threat to tiger conservation, along with increasing human-wildlife conflict as some reserves reach carrying capacity and animal habitats shrink due to declining forest cover. Out of over 4,00,000 sq km of forests in tiger states, only one-third is relatively in a healthier condition.
Tigers outside fully-protected reserves at high risk
According to the report, at least 35 percent of the tiger reserves are in urgent need of enhanced protection measures, habitat restoration and subsequent tiger reintroduction. The NTCA has been expanding tiger habitats locally by translocating a new batch of animals from saturated reserves to areas where they go extinct.
With 75 percent of the world’s tiger population, India now has about 53 tiger reserves spread across 18 states covering an area of 75,796.83 sq km. More than three-fourth of the tiger population is found within protected areas, but the ones outside fully-protected reserves remain at high risk.
Out of at least 1,062 tiger deaths recorded in the last 10 years, 35.2 percent were outside protected areas and an additional 11.5 percent were seizures, as per NTCA data. The tiger estimation survey began in 2006 and has, so far, continued to show a consistent increase in the number of tigers. In fact, according to the central government, the population of the big cat is said to have doubled from 1,400 to 2,900 in the previous survey concluded in 2018.
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