New Year 2023 could not have begun on a more dismal and sombre note for Pakistan. It is enmeshed in multiple crises: security, political, social and economic. Any of these would test a strong state and nation and Pakistan is neither; hence, its situation, with all the crises continuing simultaneously and with each one reinforcing others is all the more critical. What is surprising is that in such severe circumstances for the country, Pakistani civil and military leaders appear concerned only with their own survival.
All these leaders are looking at only tactical and temporary solutions when the need of the time is to dispassionately consider the roots of their country’s problems. They have to honestly tell the Pakistani people, as Ayatollah Khomeini said to the Iranian people when it became necessary to end the Iran-Iraq war in 1988, “We have to drink of the poisoned cup,” meaning ‘we have to change course and accept that our policies were wrong and the sacrifices of the people in pursuing them were in vain.’
In Pakistan’s case, the Khomeini approach would mean an examination of its foundational ideology and its approaches towards India. That would require political and military giants who have confidence in themselves and also in the people. Instead of giants, the country’s leaders — whether in the ruling dispensation or the political Opposition or in the military forces — are pygmies. One of these worthy’s lurid recordings of his telephone conversations, which are now in the public domain, should have sent him to self-imposed political exile but he continues to strut around as the Almighty’s gift to womankind, pirs and pirnis notwithstanding.
With the strategic defeat of the United States in Afghanistan and the re-establishment of Afghan Taliban (AT) authority in the country in August 2021, the Pakistani authorities had thought that their difficulties on the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP) front will abate with the cooperation of the AT. After all, it was only because of Pakistan’s sustained and unstinted support that the AT had accomplished its objective of ousting the Afghan Republic and its foreign allies. Rawalpindi obviously thought that the least payback from the AT would be to ensure that TTP would abandon its campaign against the Pakistan state. For many months, the AT ostensibly went along with this Pakistani demand. They also negotiated between the Pakistan state and the TTP. Consequently, a ceasefire between the two sides was achieved in November last year. However, a month later, in December the TTP unilaterally abandoned the ceasefire and embarked on a series of terrorist attacks, especially in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province and in Baluchistan. The worst of these was on December 18 when the TTP took control of a Counter Terrorism Detention Centre in Bannu for a full two days. The Army had to flush them out with both sides suffering casualties. Worrying also for the Pakistani authorities are reports of the TTP and the Baluch insurgent joining hands.
The TTP resurgence led Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to convene a meeting of the National Security Committee (NSC) which met over two sessions, the second of which was on January 2. After the NSC meeting, a media report of its decisions was issued. It could have been expected that the NSC would give the greatest, if not exclusive, focus to the TTP’s terrorist attacks and the continuing indulgence shown by the AT towards it. But that was not the case as the media report demonstrates.
The NSC press report makes all the right noises about Pakistan’s resolve to combat terrorism with all its might. It notes “the NSC reiterated its resolve to have zero tolerance for terrorism in Pakistan and reaffirmed its determination to take on any and all entities that resort to violence.” The NSC also warned that “no country will be allowed to provide sanctuaries and facilitation to terrorists and Pakistan reserves all rights in respect to safeguarding its people.” These words are clearly directed to the AT authorities in Afghanistan who have taken umbrage at them. Between the AT and Rawalpindi, a game of mutual, potential and real damage is on. If Pakistan can cause harm to the AT leaders who have families and properties in Pakistan, AT wants to retain the TTP card to reciprocate.
These views notwithstanding the real thrust of the NSC meeting, as has amply been made obvious by the press note, was on how to improve Pakistan’s critical economic situation. As I write these lines, the country’s State Bank’s foreign exchange reserves are down to a little over $5 billion, sufficient only for three weeks’ imports. Worse, unless funds are released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the country’s traditional donors—Saudi Arabia, UAE and China—there is a real danger of default. The IMF tranche negotiated by the former Finance Minister Miftah Ismail was withheld when he was replaced by Ishaq Dar. This appointment was at the instance of Nawaz Sharif and was a consequence of the panic in PML (N) when Imran Khan swept the Punjab legislature by-elections in July.
The conventional wisdom has been that no major world or regional power wants a macroeconomic meltdown in a country of around 230 million people with nuclear weapons. Hence, it would always be bailed out at the last moment. The Pakistani civilian and military elites have also believed in this view. Now, for the first time, it seems that the IMF and the traditional donors are really playing hardball. On January 7, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was compelled to speak to the IMF chief and assure her that his government will meet all its commitments to the fund. This will result in a greater burden to the common people in terms of higher energy and food prices and the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government and the new Army Chief General Asim Munir who is visiting Saudi Arabia and the UAE will seriously plead for a bailout package to prevent a default. They may succeed but they would know that in a post-Covid and post-Russian invasion of Ukraine, world bailouts would not be so readily available as in the past. This noted, it will not be easy for Pakistan to change economic course because that would mean changed political and security and ideological thinking and there is no evidence of this for the time being.
The National Assembly’s term is till mid-August. Elections will therefore have to be held this year. The PDM government and the Army leadership will do their utmost to weaken Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf leader and former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s image as he retains his popularity among his faithful followers. The attempt will, therefore, be preferably to disbar him consequent to judicial decisions on corruption against him or to weaken his image so that the swing vote moves against him. Khan is lying low presently but he has, by no means, given up. Besides, the PDM’s constituents will be at each other’s throats once elections are declared. This year will therefore be politically tense and political violence is bound to take place.
Pakistan’s society is getting more and more in the grip of extremist Islamic theologies. The forces of moderation are in retreat. While the political leadership pays lip service to moderate and enlightened Islam, the various parties pay obeisance to the Islamist groups. The Army wishes to combat violent groups that have taken arms against the state—such as the TTP—but is not willing to turn its back on those which serve its foreign policy objectives –such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba or the Jaish-e-Mohammad. These dichotomies are in actual life unsustainable but Pakistan is unwilling to change.
All in all, there is a little glimmer of hope about Pakistan’s future this year, despite all the help that China may be willing to extend to keep it a going concern. It will muddle along but there is no likelihood of the country making a departure for moving on an upward trajectory.
The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed are personal.
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