News of the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital of Tehran has sent shockwaves across the world and has embarrassed Iran. After all, he was a guest of Iran to attend the inauguration of its new President Masoud Pezeshkian, when he was killed in a blast. Before this, Israel struck a building in another capital city, Beirut in Lebanon, eliminating Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s most senior military commander and a right-hand man to the Shia militant group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah. This was apparently in response to a rocket attack by Hezbollah which killed 12 children in the Golan Heights, a Syrian territory controlled by Israel since the 1967 war.
Israel also declared that Mohammad Deif, the military leader of Hamas in Gaza, was also killed in an air raid last month. And this is not it. The Houthis also got a taste of Israeli retaliation when a crucial Yemeni lifeline, the Hodeida port, came under attack. The massive air strike on this Red Sea Port was an answer to a drone attack by the Houthis.
Israel is prepared for any further escalation, it says, and is on high alert anticipating a response from Iran. Meanwhile, Iran is trapped in its own web. Israel has killed one of Iran’s dearest guests in its capital city. Haniyeh was a guest of the Iranians. He attended the inauguration of the new Iranian President, met Supreme Leader Khamenei with a warm hug and posed with the victory sign with other Iranian leaders. That was the last the world saw of him as he was killed before dawn in his special residence in Tehran.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported it as a “Zionist raid” that took his life. It was initially theorised that it was an Israeli missile attack, and it raised serious questions about Iran’s air defence capabilities. But it is now being reported that it was actually a bomb placed inside the guesthouse where Haniyeh was staying. And it was placed almost two months before the attack. For two months, the security apparatus in Iran failed to track this bomb. When Haniyeh was finally inside, the bomb was detonated remotely.
This raises serious questions about Iran’s security and intelligence capabilities. This was a lapse at many levels, if it was a lapse at all. After all, how could it be so easy to take Haniyeh out?
This Hamas leader had been evading the Israelis for decades, enjoying safe haven in Qatar. Israel had been trying to take him out for years. Haniyeh was no small target— he was the political chief of Hamas since 2017, representing the group in diplomatic conversations with Arab and Western leaders. He shuttled from Turkey to Qatar and Iran to secure funding for Hamas. This is why some media reports will tell you that he was seen as a so-called “moderate” face of Hamas. This is not because he did not subscribe to the radical extremist ideology of Hamas but because leaders engaged with him behind closed doors to keep tabs on the Palestinian movement in Gaza.
The truth is that Haniyeh was responsible for the intense militarisation of Hamas during his time in Gaza and was even accused of diverting humanitarian aid to the Hamas armed wing. He is also believed to have amassed a wealth of $4 billion while being a leading face of Hamas. Israel believes that he was involved in the gruesome October 7 Hamas attack which killed over a thousand Israeli civilians. But the hunt is not over yet, as Israel has hinted that its next target could be Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas within the Gaza Strip.
With Haniyeh gone, Hamas is searching for a new leader. Some say that it could be Khaled Meshaal, who had previously lost Iran’s favour when he supported a rebel movement against Syria’s Bashar Al Assad. Meshaal has already survived an assassination attempt by Israel. In 1997, he was injected with poison by Israeli agents in the Jordanian capital of Amman. But the mission was botched, the agents were captured and the then-king Hussein was so furious that he threatened to hang the agents, and scrap Jordan’s peace deal with Israel unless it shared the antidote.
Under Netanyahu, who was in his first term at the time, Israel agreed to hand over the antidote and Meshaal was saved. If he returns to the paramount position in Hamas, he will surely need to watch his back or perish like his predecessor.
Coming back to Haniyeh’s death which has caused serious embarrassment for Iran. Everyone wants to know whether Iran will respond. After all, all its proxies and its own sovereign territory are under attack. Israel’s message is pretty clear. No one is safe. So, will Iran sit back down, take the loss and lose face as a result— or will it strike back? If you go by the reactions of Iran’s leaders, then revenge is right around the corner. President Pezeshkian said, “I raised his victorious hand and today I have to bury him on my shoulders. Iran will make the terrorist invaders regret their cowardly action.”
Meanwhile, Ayatollah Khamenei said, “The criminal, terrorist Zionist regime martyred our dear guest in our territory and has caused grief, but it has also prepared the ground for a severe punishment… It is our duty to take revenge.” Khamenei has even ordered a direct attack on Israel, according to reports.
But it’s not as simple as it looks. Iran’s words are failing to match its actions. In April this year, Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria and killed several IRGC officers. Iran retaliated but it seemed like it did not want a war. It rained down missiles over Israel, almost all of which were intercepted by the Iron Dome air defence systems. The damage was little and by no means a major escalation. Moreover, reports said that Iran had notified countries in the region, indirectly tipping Israel off about the attack and letting it prepare its defences in advance.
Could it be that Iran does not want to be dragged into an all-out war with Israel, even though Israel is baiting it for confrontation every now and then? 39,000 Palestinians have been reported dead in Gaza, while over 100 Israeli hostages remain in captivity with no end in sight to the Israel-Hamas war. Israel has made a solid show of force in the last ten months, training its guns at Iran and Iran’s proxies, all at the same time. But Iran is avoiding an all-out war.
Iran’s economy, already devastated by sanctions, is threatened not just by Israel but the United States. The US has been sending billions of dollars in military aid to Israel at a time when it is already funding a bigger war against Russia in Ukraine. It has the resources and the political will to back Israel in a war. Israel has deep pockets and can play the game overtly but Iran does not, and it must use its funds tactically, which is what it has been doing by moving in the shadows with its proxy groups so far.
Moreover, will the Iranian people support such a war— brought on their land over a foreign dispute? The answer to that is most likely no. It remains to be seen whether Iran will go all in or make a symbolic attack like it did in April, or even whether the war’s primary front will shift to Lebanon. Ultimately, Iran will lose face if it doesn’t respond but it will lose much more if it does.
Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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