The political turmoil in Bangladesh has taken a very ugly turn over the past few days. What seemed like a students’ protest has taken a visceral form. The Pandora’s box has been opened. The hysterical mob has resorted to everything possible to ensure the paralysis of the state. Radical elements have left no stone unturned to lead Bangladesh to complete anarchy. The elected government was forcibly dissolved. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was forced to flee to India by helicopter. This happened with dramatic suddenness.
The violent mob attacked the prime minister’s residence and resorted to looting, damaging property, and hurling invectives against her. The demolition of statues of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was carried out across the country. The man who gave freedom to Bangladesh was subjected to ignominy and disgrace. This indicates that the students’ protest was a façade. It signifies a strong collusion of forces both inside and outside the country. The public disgrace of Mujibur Rahman’s statues amplifies the intent of the subversive forces.
Hindu temples were torched and desecrated. Hindu minority houses were attacked. The intensity of this attack reached its most ferocious form as India was portrayed as an enemy country because it gave shelter to Sheikh Hasina. The Hindu minority, which has now been reduced to just 8 per cent, bears the brunt of the ongoing political crisis.
Apart from multiple instances of temple attacks, the ISKCON temple in Meherpur, Bangladesh, was vandalised and set on fire. External Affairs Minister Jaishankar expressed serious concern over the precarious conditions of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh on the floor of the Parliament. Districts such as Panchgarh, Dinajpur, Bogura, Rangpur, Sherpur Kishoreganj, Sirajganj, Mugra, Narail, West Jashore, Patuakhali, South-West Khulna, Central Narsingdi, Satkhira, Tangail, Feni Chittagong, and North-West Lakkipur are particularly sensitive, and conditions may further intensify in these areas which might lead to mass migrations to India.
Given all these atrocities, arson, and vandalism taking place in several districts, including the capital, Dhaka, the army has remained strangely silent, choosing inaction, and allowing the radicals and anarchists to ensure the complete paralysis of the country. This chaos is a premeditated one, and the students’ protest was merely a trigger to unleash the forces that pulverised democracy in Bangladesh. The release of Opposition leaders and some radicals from prison, the demand for Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus’ involvement in politics, and the tactical silence of the army chief are indicators of a larger game plan.
External forces have contributed to the complete collapse of Bangladesh. All the antithetical forces against Sheikh Hasina have joined hands to oust her from politics. They have succeeded, and many more developments are apparently yet to be seen. There is a pressing need for an interim government to address the situation. However, from the look of it, the crisis does not seem to be ending any time soon.
However, it is important to see what this situation holds for India. The tension of this gravity and scale in the neighbourhood is not good for India. The paralysis in Bangladesh serves as a warning to India about what might await in the long run. The collusion of forces intending to undermine India’s interests in Bangladesh, South Asia, and beyond is evident in the ongoing crisis. The India-Bangladesh cooperation and camaraderie developed over the past few decades have suffered a serious setback with Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. The coup has marked the end of this friendly relationship.
Needless to say, Sheikh Hasina was pro-India, and under her political leadership, India made significant strides in engaging in developmental activities and securely placing its importance in the scheme of things there.
Since China’s rising heft in the region, US-China antagonism in the Indo-Pacific, the formation of the Quad, and the China-Taiwan conflict, the Bay of Bengal has gained significant strategic importance. The Bay of Bengal is within India’s sphere of influence. India’s conventional policy of non-alignment creates strategic ambiguity for both the US and China, as both vie for dominance in the region. The littoral states of the Bay of Bengal are Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, and Indonesia. China has successfully penetrated these littoral countries through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The instability in Sri Lanka and Myanmar has yet to see an effective resolution, and the situation remains fragile. India’s decision to remain unaligned, neither siding with China nor the US, invites increased challenges from these hegemonic powers.
China ferments trouble in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Pakistan, and the Maldives. This makes India’s neighbourhood difficult and increases its challenges. China and Pakistan have long posed a two-front threat to India, and with the addition of Bangladesh, India now faces a potential third front. Confronting enemies on three fronts is not a prudent strategy; it leads to economic and energy drain, with minimal chances of success, and weakens the country. Engaging in a three-front war would be detrimental to India’s economy. Sometimes, avoidance of conflict is beyond India’s control, as conditions may force countries into such situations. The current circumstances do not favour India.
The US presidential election is underway, with campaigning in full swing. The Democrats and Republicans are fiercely competing for victory. Historically, this period has seen Pakistan intensify its efforts to trouble India. The 9/11 terror attack on Indian soil is an example of Pakistan’s duplicity and treachery.
The rising tension in Bangladesh exacerbates the refugee crisis. The Hindu minority in Bangladesh is in a state of fear and paranoia, leading to a potential mass migration. If such a migration occurs, India’s northeast is likely to experience difficulties. Tension in the northeast is always a concern for India, particularly given the region’s history of insurgency and the ongoing Manipur crisis, which could be exacerbated. Internal security will face significant challenges.
The crisis and coup in Bangladesh represent a tectonic shift in geopolitics in the Bay of Bengal. This situation recalls the famous statement by Alfred Thayer Mahan in The Influence of Sea Power Upon History: “Whoever rules the waves rules the world.” His observations highlight the dynamics of the sea in rivalries for power and dominance.
China has gone a long way with its BRI framework and debt trap policies in the Bay of Bengal region, bringing Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh under its sway. Beijing ensures New Delhi’s increasing isolationism in its backyard by outmanoeuvring it when necessary. The symptom of this helplessness is shown in the form of the Bangladesh crisis.
For China and the US, the Bay of Bengal has become another maritime space for confrontation. St. Martins Island has recently emerged as a bone of contention between these competing and rival powers. The island’s geopolitical significance has increased due to its strategic location. Sheikh Hasina had previously referred to the island and its foreign interest, and she had also expressed her determination not to lease it to any external power. The island’s accessibility and geostrategic positioning are crucial for establishing a military base, leading both China and the US to court Hasina for a lease.
Her reluctance to lease the island has provoked the ire of the major powers interested in the region. This ongoing resentment has culminated in the recent coup and her removal from power in Bangladesh. With her departure, the path is now clear for foreign interests to exert influence and act freely in the region.
The treaties and commitments between India and Bangladesh, particularly those involving Modi and Hasina, are unlikely to work in India’s favour. Forces antithetical to India’s interests will have a strong say in Bangladesh’s politics. Despite this, India is likely to seek ways to de-escalate the situation due to its commitment to a neighbourhood-first policy. It will remain steadfast in its approach despite the regional turmoil exacerbated by foreign interventions. Although this storm will eventually pass, it will likely cause significant damage. The ongoing crisis is expected to precipitate a major economic downturn, impacting Bangladesh in a complex manner. The prevailing hysteria, fundamentalism, and violence could lead to an irreparable economic crisis in Bangladesh.
Jajati K Pattnaik, an Associate Professor at the School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi; Chandan K Panda, an Assistant Professor at Rajiv Gandhi University (A Central University), Itanagar. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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