Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his 27th visit to Assam on April 17. Attending a public meeting in Nalbari, he addressed the crowd with his ‘guarantee’. The last 10 years have been a fruition of the promise Modi made in March 2014 in an election campaign meeting in Assam, where he said, “You bring a BJP government in Delhi and we will ensure that every poor will have a house. There will be no poor in this country who will not have shelter over their heads.”
True to his promise and commitment, today an erstwhile backward state like Assam has excelled way too far in all the parameters of good governance, public service delivery, infrastructure growth along with huge industrial growth. Assam is developing phenomenally with a robust economy, intensified CapEx investment leading to intensely sprawling infrastructure development and improvement in other social development indices under the ‘double engine government’ as a result of maximum planning, implementation, service delivery and a transparent good governance model.
The government’s achievements have led to intensified mainstreaming of India’s Northeast by an effective reinvention of India’s cultural heterogeneity, streamlined growth trajectory, and inclusion of the marginalised sections with the motto of ‘last mile delivery’. The double-engine government model is the key instrument for a stable, effective government in the present global order with declining resources, rapid technological change, and political polarisation. This federal model has produced better results than either system acting alone. In the Indian federal context, current Assam stands out to be the best example of the double-engine government laying out the foundation for effective governance and efficient government.
By combining the strengths of both engines, a double-engine government can provide greater power, stability, growth, inclusivity and prosperity for the citizenry. Records and data related to the huge economic development of Assam will stand as a testament to this claim.
Collaborative federalism
Himanta Biswa Sarma exemplifies the most effective and successful federal collaboration with the Centre which has resulted in a coordinated policy implementation and service delivery. In the post-independence period, economically, Assam was one of the leading Indian states but was pushed to economic de-stabilisation, politically contested and volatile, and economically impoverished and backwards in the post-liberalisation period (post-1991) due to terrorism, political apathy of the Union government for years.
The gap between the rich and poor became starkly wide and regional disparity remained the key feature of the Congress government at the Centre. During the reforms period of 1990-91, 2000-01 and 2010-11, the combined shares of GSDP of the eight Northeast states declined from 3.07 per cent to 2.99 per cent to 2.61 per cent respectively, leading to the rising regional gap between the Northeast and the rest of India. Assam’s GSDP increased at a CAGR of 13.90 per cent between 2016-17 to 2022-23. In 2022-23, Assam’s per capita GSDP (at current prices) is estimated to be Rs 1,36,819, an increase of 17 per cent over 2021-22. In 2022-23, India’s per capita GDP is estimated to increase by 15 per cent over 2021-22 to Rs 1,96,983. The Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of Assam for 2024-25 (at current prices) is projected to be Rs 6,43,089 crore, amounting to growth of 13 per cent over 2023-24. In 2022-23, Assam’s GSDP (at constant prices) is estimated to grow by 10.2 per cent over the previous year.
In comparison, India’s GDP is estimated to grow 7 per cent in 2022-23. In 2022-23, India’s per capita income is estimated to increase by 14 per cent to Rs 1,70,620. According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey, in 2021-22, Assam’s unemployment rate was 4.9 per cent (as per current weekly status), lower than the national unemployment rate of 6.6 per cent. CM Biswa Sarma stated early in 2024 that the state’s economy, which has registered a healthy 14.7 per cent growth for 2013-24, is projected to reach Rs 5.65 lakh crore and stated that the early estimates for the current year suggest a rise to Rs 6.38 lakh crore and has further claimed Assam economy to grow by Rs 10 lakh crore by 2026, which is quite realistic an estimate going by the present growth estimates and statistics.
Now regional disparity is an issue of the past and Assam’s record GDP growth will soon surpass that of Punjab’s GDP as Punjab’s GDP is at around Rs 6,98,000 crore and Assam’s GDP is to touch Rs 5,67,000 crore.
Becoming an industrial hub
Assam being the largest economy in the Northeast and despite having a favourable environment for industry, has remained economically underdeveloped due to the political negligence and apathy for the state by the past governments at the Centre. Assam’s stagnation and inequity remained the key feature of the economy.
The Assocham Report of 2015 highlighted the poor infrastructure and limited connectivity due to the stringent policy measures of the government leading to industrial backwardness and unemployment. The scenario changed with the coming of the BJP government at the Centre in 2014 and the coming of the BJP in the state, particularly after Biswa Sarma became the CM in 2021.
Assam has fetched the greatest industrial deal by having the Tata semiconductor plant in the state. The Government of India has approved a proposal by Tata Electronics to build a state-of-the-art, greenfield semiconductor assembly and test facility in Jagiroad, Assam. This collaboration is a significant step towards creating an end-to-end semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem in India. The facility will be built with an investment outlay of Rs 27,000 crore and is expected to generate over 27,000 direct and indirect jobs in the state.
Assam boasts of having the largest tea-growing area in the world and Assam tea constitutes more than 14 per cent of the global tea production and the largest tea production area in the country. Assam produces 700 million kg of tea annually which is half of India’s total tea production. The state is generating annual foreign exchange earnings up to a whopping amount of Rs 3,000 crore. Now Assam has 20 industrial estates, three industrial growth centres, 11 Integrated Infrastructure Development Depots, 17 industrial areas, 12 growth centres, eight mini-industrial estates, one export promotion park and one food processing industrial park.
According to the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), the cumulative FDI inflows in Assam were valued at $20.73 million from October 2019 to June 2023. Exports from the state stood at $415.62 million in FY21. Assam exported key items such as tea, petroleum products, coal, coke briquettes and other products. In FY21, the total tea exports from Assam accounted for $281.42 million, which was 68 per cent of the total exports. As of September 2023, Assam had a total installed power generation capacity of 1,858.43 MW, of which 1,285.16 MW was under central utilities, 161.90 MW was under private utilities and 411.37 MW was under state utilities.
Apart from the large industries, the state government has launched policy measures to encourage the MSMEs. The Mukhya Mantri Sva-Niyojan Mission scheme proposes to promote micro-entrepreneurship among families below the poverty line and low-income households. Under the scheme, seed capital of Rs 2 lakh each will be given to one lakh beneficiaries. The sectors covered under the scheme will include manufacturing, food processing, and handicrafts. A further one lakh youth entrepreneurs will be provided project-based subsidies.
Heightened social sector investment
To achieve the ambitious Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), countries in Asia and the Pacific need to align financing the development strategies with the principles of shared prosperity, social equity and environmental sustainability. One important measure that policymakers and other stakeholders can take to achieve this objective is to ensure that investments in the social sector are commensurate with investments in other priority areas, including infrastructure, and science and technology. A well-studied approach is visible in the case of Assam where an increased investment in the social sector along with high CapEx to create world-class investment can be witnessed.
Assam has allocated 16.8 per cent of its expenditure on education in 2023-24. This is higher than the average allocation for education by 31 states in 2022-23 (14.8 per cent). Assam has allocated 5.6 per cent of its total expenditure towards health and has allocated 3.3 per cent of its expenditure on rural development and 3 per cent of its expenditure towards urban development.
Health services under Himanta Biswa Sarma have earned laurels of excellence. Assam under his aegis as the incumbent health minister has faced the Covid-19 waves with exceptional infrastructural preparedness. At present, there are 12 medical colleges in Assam. The government is undertaking the construction of nine more medical colleges. By 2026-27, Assam will have 21 medical colleges, as per an official statement by the CM in 2023. Assam also has an AIIMS near Guwahati. A host of welfare schemes related to health services have been launched and successfully implemented by the current regime. Some of the schemes are Pradhan Mantri Surakshit Mtritva Abhiyan, Operation Smile, Free Drugs Service, Shishu Suraksha Karyakram, Janani Suraksha Yojana, Mrityunjoy-108 ambulance Service, Rashtriya Baal Suraksha Karyakram, etc.
Assam has allocated 9.3 per cent of its total expenditure towards roads and bridges, which is higher than the average allocation by states (4.5 per cent). Infrastructure creation is one of the most important aspects of the Modi government. Increased capital expenditure (CapEx) positively impacts the national income through the multiplier effect (in India, the value of the multiplier is around 2.45), which refers to the change in the final income generated by a change in initial spending. It means if the CapEx is around Rs 1,000, then national income will grow by Rs 2,400. In the latest Union budget, the Centre increased revenue expenditure by only 1.5 per cent, while capital expenditure rose by 38 per cent. More than Rs 10 trillion has been allocated for infrastructure development. In the last nine years of the Modi government, the length of national highways has increased by more than 100 per cent.
PM Narendra Modi rolled out development projects worth Rs 11,600 crore in Assam on February 4, 2024. Of the announced infrastructure projects, some are funded by the state government and some by the Centre. Some of the major projects for which foundation stones were laid were the Kamakhya temple corridor (Rs 498 crore), the six-lane road from the new airport terminal in Guwahati (Rs 358 crore), the upgradation of Nehru Stadium to FIFA standards (Rs 831 crore) and a new sports complex in Chandrapur (Rs 300 crore).
Five infrastructure projects of roads and railways have been recommended for approval under the PM GatiShakti initiative. These projects were assessed in the 65th Network Planning Group (NPG) meeting which was held on December 7, 2023. As per GatiShakti principles, the projects were discussed to promote multimodal connectivity to the manufacturing and commercial zones, while uplifting the socioeconomic development of the region through an improved logistics ecosystem. This initiative will subsume various infrastructure projects like the Bharatmala, Sagarmala, inland waterways dry/land ports, UDAN etc. Under the programme, 100 critical gap projects have been prioritised in FY24 for development with a budgetary allocation of 75,000 crore.
The second road project of the GatiShakti initiative is situated in Assam and Mizoram and offers an alternative connectivity route in the region, resulting in a 20 per cent reduction in length (from 215 km to 172 km) and a 50 per cent reduction in travel time (from 5 hours to 2.5 hours) over present connectivity. This road is poised to benefit industrial parks and the Bamboo Technology Park in the region. The Assam Cabinet on February 2, 2022, had approved setting up a high-level task force to oversee the “proper implementation of PM GatiShakti” project.
With an initial allocation of Rs 1,500 crore, the Union budget 2022-23 proposed to roll out the Prime Minister’s Development Initiative for North East Region (PM-DevINE). This is expected to fill vital gaps in infrastructure development and generate livelihood activities for youth and women. It will fund infrastructure, in the spirit of PM GatiShakti, and social development projects based on the needs of the Northeast. The projects include the establishment of dedicated services for the management of paediatric and adult hemato-lymphoid cancers in Northeast India, Guwahati (Multi-State) with Rs 129 crore, and NECTAR Livelihood Improvement Project (Multi-State) Rs 67 crore.
The Union Minister for Road Transport and Highways, Nitin Gadkari, inaugurated in June 2023, four infrastructure projects worth Rs 1450 in Assam. Apart from the Centrally sponsored infrastructure projects, there has been a substantial external flow of funds for the same purpose, totalling Rs 58,000 crore from organisations like the World Bank and ADB over the past three years.
Welfare Measures
The policies and the achievements of the double-engine government have explicitly portrayed that the welfare of the poor is the highest priority it emphasises on. Assam Skill Development Mission was set up under the aegis of the Skill Employment and Entrepreneurship Department with a vision of capacity building of the unemployed youth and delivering quality skill training leading to meaningful employment. A number of skill incubation centres are providing skill training to youth to bridge the skill gap. In the latest budget, the government has proposed to provide housing to one lakh beneficiaries in 2023-24. The Orunodoi Scheme provides Rs 8,000 each annually to unemployed women, which other Indian states have started implementing. All Gram Panchayat Secretaries will be designated as Child Marriage Prevention Officers to prevent child marriages in the state to decrease gender disparity, MMR, IMR and to educate the girl child. The Gram Panchayat Secretaries will ensure the prohibition of child marriages, the protection of victims, and the prosecution of offenders. This scheme aims to make Assam free of child marriage by 2026.
Thus, the Modi-Biswa Sarma double engine is the key carrier of creating opportunities for the state, fulfilling the aspirations of the youth, bridging inequity and putting Assam at the centre stage of development, inclusivity and equity leading to deeper social and re-distributive justice by putting the citizenry at the centre of both policy framing and implementation. Modi 3.0 is what India and Assam need at the moment.
The author is a senior faculty in the Department of History, ARSD College, University of Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
Comments
0 comment