India is a country whose rise threatens both China and the US, and as such, the interests of Washington and Beijing to contain New Delhi appear to be converging. What has played out in Bangladesh in recent weeks, culminating on Monday with the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, is a stark reminder of how India’s interests can be sacrificed at the altar of American and Chinese desires for regional and global domination.
The Americans want a naval base in Bangladesh, a demand Sheikh Hasina time and again rejected. As for the Chinese, they will settle for anything that turns the equations against India in the subcontinent. It is not surprising, therefore, that top Indian intelligence sources have spoken to News18 of an ISI plot, and active Pakistani involvement in the ongoing unrest and violence in Bangladesh.
While China uses its proxy, Pakistan, to raise the tempo against India in Jammu and Kashmir, the PLA is keeping the Indian Army busy along the LAC. Parallelly, the US has been making moves which are visibly detrimental to Indian interests. These range from frequent remarks by the State Department and White House on India’s internal affairs, to even hitjobs masquerading as government reports highlighting the supposed rise of intolerance against minorities in our country.
Already, Pakistan is trying to remodel the Kashmir conflict into a “resistance" against supposed fascism, so that the world sees it on the lines of what is happening in Gaza. This is according to an analysis by DisInfo Labs. India was, in any case, facing the prospect of a two-front conflict with Pakistan and China. What the unrest and altered equation in Bangladesh does is potentially open a third front against India.
Read More: Straight Talk | Third Front Rising: India Needs a ‘Plan B’ to Deal with Bangladesh Post Sheikh Hasina
Add to that, Washington’s tacit support for Khalistanis only adds to India’s worries. The US is yet to take any concrete steps to address Indian concerns about the threats posed by Khalistani elements harboured on American soil. The question to ask, therefore, is this: will Punjab be the next front that the American deep state opens against India?
We are obviously seeing an attempt to bog India down with domestic and regional troubles, at a time when the country should be focusing on its economy in a mission mode. Has the idea of a “Viksit Bharat" by 2047 startled global hegemons, who may now be interested in ensuring India’s growth trajectory is stunted due to emerging security challenges? The answer is blowing in the wind.
The United States is pivoting towards the Indo-Pacific. The process of that pivot, as is now evident, is classically American. Wherever Washington has historically turned its attention to, under the shroud of countering a rising power (in this case, China and India), chaos and anarchy have followed. One need not strain one’s eyes looking at the previous century. Since 2010 alone, American involvement in the Arab Spring protests and the Euromaidan demonstrations in Ukraine has had devastating consequences for the Middle East and Europe.
The American model of dominating the world is simple: control the levers of global economy and trade, exert extraordinary power over multilateral organisations and global financial institutions, all while carefully ensuring that the domestic military-industrial complex remains flush with cash as it meets global demands for arms and ammunition.
It is not a coincidence that America fights all its wars in third-world countries. These countries comprise what is known in more academic circles as the “periphery" of the world. It is a part of the world that is, using a variety of tools – like democracy, sanctions, regime change, wars, et al – kept in a perpetual cycle of instability, chaos and stagnation. The Global South poses a threat to the collective domination of developed Western countries. It is for this reason that the Global South is kept busy fighting its battles – whether economic or military.
However, there are outliers. Countries like India, China and even Russia represent a threat to the world order that the US has spent so much time and resources building, over several decades. As far as Russia is concerned, the US is already embroiled in a proxy war with it – one being fought in Ukraine. A conflict between China and the United States also appears on the horizon, especially if Beijing makes a move on Taiwan. Then there is India. Washington is supposed to be New Delhi’s friend. However, if it allows India to continue on the trajectory it is on, it will not be long before this friend becomes a competitor globally. It is for this reason that we now see signs of an effort to contain India.
Trouble in India’s neighbourhood helps the US keep New Delhi’s rise in check. Meanwhile, it also serves the purpose of China – which is to bog India down on multiple fronts. Reports indicate that China-backed insurgents are making steady progress in Myanmar. That is another front that we need to keenly watch.
With a BNP-Jamaat regime set to take control of Bangladesh, China practically finds both its hands in a cookie jar. Even if Bangladesh tilts towards the US from here on, China will be rather satisfied knowing that a pro-India regime has been toppled in Dhaka.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami are both antagonistic towards India. The Jamaat, in fact, has not-so-secretive links with Pakistan and its intelligence service. The same parties have also been running an “India Out" campaign lately, calling on Bangladeshis to boycott Indian goods. It is apprehended that Pakistan could now try to reactivate dormant insurgencies in India’s Northeast. These outfits, during the previous BNP-Jamaat rule, found safe refuge and even patronage in Bangladesh.
While the US, China and Pakistan all stand to gain from the new reality in Bangladesh, albeit to varying degrees, they will all take solace in knowing that India has been removed from the equation. While the events in Bangladesh represent a major strategic setback for New Delhi, they must not become the premise for us to abandon Bangladesh altogether. This is far too important and strategically placed a country to be left to land on American, Chinese and Pakistani laps. Even if India’s efforts to retain its position in Bangladesh do not fructify, we would have at least tried.
At the end of the day, however, it is for Bangladesh to decide how it engages with India. A friendly approach will be much appreciated, but it is not like India does not know how to deal with hostile neighbours.
Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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