With Eye on China’s Vaccine Diplomacy, India & US Must Collaborate to Meet Needs of Developing World

External Affairs Minister (EAM) S. Jaishankar’s visit to the US comes at a time when the second wave of the Wuhan virus is ravaging India, the situation on the border in Ladakh is stalemated, the US policy towards China is hardening. Chinese diplomacy is becoming more defiant, China is losing diplomatic ground in Europe, the Biden-Putin summit on June 16 at Geneva has been announced, nuclear negotiations with Iran have resumed, the US has announced September 11 as the date of withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, and the climate change dossier is gaining urgency with the COP26 meeting in Glasgow in November this year. On top of all this, there is plenty on the table for the India-US bilateral agenda in general.

After some initial speculation about how the change in the US administration may affect India-US ties, it is now clear that on defence and security issues touching on the Indo-Pacific and the Quad, the US is closely engaging India. On Afghanistan, India is not comfortable with the time-table of the US withdrawal and the uncertainties that lie ahead. The US policy towards Pakistan after its exit from Afghanistan is still a matter of speculation.

The toughening of the US posture towards China makes partnership with India more important even if the western Pacific theatre is at the core of the US security concerns in the Indo-Pacific in collaboration with Japan and Australia as military allies. India as part of the Quad is an additional point of pressure on China, apart from tying India, the second-largest Asian country and a rising power, more closely to the US. A fall out of shared maritime security concerns opens up the Indian defence market more to the US military equipment, with the collateral advantage of weaning away India progressively from Russian supplies.

The prospects of a renewed dialogue between the US and Russia, however difficult, would make it easier for India to manage its ties with both countries. Russia has misgivings about our expanding ties with the US, which it sees as roping in India in America’s Indo-Pacific and Quad strategies directed at containing China, and the US, on the other hand, believes that by maintaining close ties with Russia, India is not willing to shed its non-aligned thinking, expressed today as strategic autonomy. If the nuclear dialogue with Iran progresses and the US lifts some of the sanctions, our energy trade with Iran can resume, oil prices could fall and more options could open for Iran besides increasing reliance on China, which would be helpful to us geopolitically in our region.

The Vaccine Dossier

In a way, the burden fell on the External Affairs Minister to handle the vaccine dossier. The US is absolutely the key player in this regard, as it virtually controls the global pharmaceutical supply chains. This is why Trump and now Biden invoked the Defence Production Act to ensure that the US vaccine needs are met first before supplies can go anywhere else. The US has hoarded vaccines, banned their export as well as that of several ingredients that go into their manufacture, creating difficulties for India to ramp up its vaccination programme. Even if we have a locally developed vaccine such as Covaxin, we are still dependent on the US primarily for import of ingredients. On top of Jaishankar’s agenda in Washington was the vaccine issue, given its urgency.

The move by India and South Africa in the WTO for a temporary suspension of patents to permit production of vaccines in countries that have the infrastructure without violating intellectual property rights does not meet immediate needs. Apparently 280 ingredients go into vaccine production and it is possible that the US companies hold the vast majority of the patents involved. The US government has agreed so far to support the suspension of patents only for vaccines, not the ingredients and the connected therapeutics. The European Union is not supportive of the US decision, made without consulting Europe, and states its willingness to discuss the subject at the WTO, which is at the moment essentially a diplomatic stance. It will take time to develop a consensus at the WTO. At Jaishankar’s meeting with the US Trade Representative in Washington this subject was no doubt discussed.

Our strategy seems to be to persuade the US government and the US companies manufacturing vaccines and the required ingredients to cooperate with India to not only meet our needs but also of the developing countries in general, as India has the capacity to produce vaccines in large quantities and at low cost, which the US does not. What India needs is the US government support to persuade the US companies to ramp up production of ingredients which can be bought commercially by Indian producers. If that production is not scaled up, India will face difficulties in ramping up its own production at levels required for its vaccination programme. At the same time, India would welcome the US Pharma giants collaborating commercially with Indian companies to produce vaccines in India.

The geopolitical aspect of what is being proposed is important. It was there in the decision by Quad to produce 1 billion doses in India for supply to the Indo-Pacific region. That geopolitical perspective needs to be widened to include Africa, Latin America and the Island states. The WHO approval of a Chinese vaccine and lack of access to vaccines by most developing countries opens up huge space for China to do its vaccine diplomacy. Already our neighbours are pressing us for supply of vaccines, and will turn to China despite doubts about the efficacy of its vaccines. It is in the shared interest of India and the US to position us together to meet the critical and pressing needs of the developing world. This is the reason that Jaishankar stressed while in the US that the pandemic cannot be fought if only a part of the world is protected and other parts are neglected. His programme also included contact with the US Pharma giants.

Pushing for Actionable Policies

The other subject on top of the EAM’s agenda seemed to be defence ties with the US, which explains his meeting with the US Defence Secretary. The structure of India-China ties has effectively broken down, with China’s aggression in Ladakh, and restoring it with any degree of trust in the future is unlikely. Even if some relative stability is achieved, India has to prepare for the worst case scenario and strengthen its long-term defence capabilities. For this, access to necessary American equipment and technology for enhanced land and maritime security would be required. These are delicate issues and involve significant policy choices. India is not looking at any alliance but working bilaterally and plurilaterally in a multipolar perspective.

Jaishankar’s is the first in-person visit by an Indian cabinet minister since the Biden Administration took over. In addition to Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, he has met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, Democratic and Republican lawmakers and top American business leaders. In a webcast discussion organised by the Hoover Institution, he said that on the big issues of the day, India and the US have fundamental convergences which required translation into actionable policies. His visit was intended to push the ties in that direction.

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