It is being termed as the most important electoral battle of 2015. The fight for Bihar is being termed as a 'game-changer' election for a range of reasons. If the BJP suffered a setback at the start of the year (Delhi Assembly polls) it hopes to end the year on the high! For the Grand Alliance it is an epic battle to assert their presence and arrest the forward march of the BJP. The verdict of the Bihar voter would have long term political implications for all political parties as well as the cut and thrust of politics both in Bihar and at the national level.
Beyond a shadow of doubt, this is one of the most challenging political tests for the BJP in particular and the NDA in general after having come to power at the national level a year ago. Many would see as the victories in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir (in a limited way) for the BJP as the continuing effect of the 'honey-moon' phase enjoyed by the party on account of the success in the the Lok Sabha elections. The Delhi results came as a serious jolt and a 'wake up' call and Bihar would define and decide whether the Delhi results were the indicators of a 'new' trend or from the BJP’s perspective a mere minor aberration. However much the BJP would like to project Bihar as representing a 'local' election and not being a referendum on the BJP led central government, it would be difficult to ignore the implications of a setback in the state. A victory of course would be gleefully projected as an endorsement of the central government and its leadership and a vote for change in the state. For both the RJD and JD(U), the Bihar poll is a battle for political survival. The fact that the two parties are part of an alliance, in spite of their sharp past differences, is clearly a recognition of the writing on the 'political wall' in the state.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA swept with the alliance winning 31 of the 40 seats in Bihar. The BJP won 22 seats on its own with the allies winning the remaining 9 seats. The RJD managed to win 4 seats with the JDU and Congress winning two seats each and the NCP (which as walked out of the Grand Alliance) winning a single seat. In the first- past- the – post system, the winning coalition often gains an upper hand when the opposition vote is split. The NDA secured 39% of the vote, while the Congress and the RJD which were in alliance in the Lok Sabha polls secured close to 29% of the vote and the JDU independently secured close to 16%. A mere mathematical aggregation of the vote share of the new alliances would show that the Grand Alliance taken together would be close to 45% as compared to the 39% of the NDA. However, three caveats would immediately need to be added. First, As the old saying goes, 2 plus 2 need not necessarily (only) add up to 4, especially when one is talking of electoral politics! While electoral mathematics may add up in one way political chemistry may trigger off many unanticipated reactions! Secondly, the NDA has the advantage of Jitan Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha on their side. This of course is countered by the RJD and JDU coming together. Thirdly, much political water has flowed below the electoral bridge of Bihar in the last eighteen months which could dramatically alter the political equations and electoral results.
As the process of filing of nominations is underway and the campaign picks up in an election that is spread over five phases, the different pieces of the political jigsaw puzzle slowly appear to be fitting into place. What are the critical factors that appear to be play a critical role in defining and deciding this electoral battle? A few merit attention.
The BJP campaign in this election has seen several interesting twists and turns and appears to be micro-managed by the central leadership of the party. The first hurdle the party faced was getting its NDA partners on board with regard to seat sharing. While a formula for seat sharing was announced, the disquiet and unease at the ground level among the alliance partners is patently visible. The organizations associated with the BJP have further queered the pitch by raising issues linked to the reservation policy of the government. The BJP leadership has tried to place a cap on the controversy by declaring its unequivocal commitment to social justice. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls in Bihar, the Upper Caste vote was solidly behind the BJP. It also did manage to split the Yadav, Kurmi and Koeri vote even as it made significant gains among the other Backward Castes and Scheduled Castes. Will the BJP be able to retain the social groups that supported it in the Lok Sabha polls. Recently, the declaration by a prominent Thakur leader of the BJP that when the party comes to power, the Chief Minister will be from the Backward Castes is a well planned strategy to consolidate its presence among the backwards social groups even as the party hopes that such a move would not create a Upper caste backlash. In 2014, a significant chunk of the minority vote in Bihar went to the RJD. The absence of a 'visibly' inclusive agenda holds no attraction for the minorities to back the BJP or its allies in the NDA.
It is also important to note that the 2014 vote for the BJP in Bihar was also an 'aspirational' vote. The higher levels of support among first time voters and those below 25, those with access to education and the middle and upper classes all point out to the consolidation that the BJP was able to achieve around the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP campaign in the assembly elections continues to focus on the 'development' plank and the unfulfilled 'aspirations' of important segments of society. The 'Good Days are coming' (Acche Din…) slogan that was heard during the Lok Sabha campaign, has lost some its sheen, as the eighteen months in government has not seen the anticipated delivery of benefits at the ground level to the level of expectations. Will it resonate with the same intensity or would it encounter a tinge of cynicism is what this results will prove. Announcing of packages is about selling dreams. At the end of the day, the voter looks at what is happening at the ground level.
Having learnt its lessons from the Delhi assembly polls defeat, the BJP has decided not to project a Chief Ministerial candidate and go with its central leadership as the 'face' to be projected. Strategically this could work to their advantage as it would help to keep the party (and the alliance) united. Choice of candidates is critical and the BJP is already facing challenges and internal dissent on the choice of candidates in seats going for voting in the first and second phase. Reports have already drawn attention to the party having fielded a large number of candidates with a tainted past.
The RJD-JDU-Congress alliance is clearly aiming to gain the benefits of having come together. Having managed to project Nitish Kumar as the Chief Ministerial candidate of the alliance, they hope to rally behind the reasonably clean image the Chief Minister has. Like his Delhi counterpart Arvind Kejriwal, who apologized to Delhites for having resigned after being in power for 46 days, Nitish was quick to realize that it was important for him too to apologize to the people for having resigned after the Lok Sabha defeat. The entire campaign of the alliance clearly focuses on the image of the Chief Minister and his efforts to place Bihar on the development track and restore law and order in the state. The fear of back seat driving (by the RJD) if the alliance were to win a majority is something that has not been successfully and effectively dealt with. The biggest challenge the alliance faces is ensuring the coming together of cadres on the ground. Having been on opposite sides of the political/electoral contest for close to two decades, would a coming together at the top, really translate itself to a unity and vote transfer on the ground. It is also important to note that Nitish Kumar had over the years built his political constituency and support base by focusing on the need for the non-Yadav backwards to come together. During the years he was in alliance with the BJP, the other backward castes were in political opposition to the Yadavs. Bringing them to the same camp now may face challenges at the ground level. The alliance has a wonderful opportunity to consolidate the votes of the minorities but would also need to deal with a backlash which could be very successfully engineered by its opponents.
Many commentators have argued that this election would decide whether the social justice plank would be replaced by a development agenda. This seems a very surface level understanding of the politics of Bihar. The social justice agenda reflects the concerns of the socially marginalized. The same cannot be masked by the focus on development. Development at the end of the day also needs a 'social' face and rooted in critical social concerns of the marginalized. A month from now, Bihar will provide crucial answers.
(Dr Sandeep Shastri is a keen student of politics and currently the Pro Vice Chancellor of Jain University and an election analyst for CNN-IBN)
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