The counting of votes for Lok Sabha elections 2024 will take place on Tuesday. While most exit polls have predicted a clear victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the Congress-led INDIA bloc is expected to win just about 100-150 seats. However, it is to be noted that regional parties that did not become a part of either of these alliances may suffer losses, resulting in gains for the two alliances.
BJP Seen Gaining in Odisha as BJD May Lose
A major chunk of the Lok Sabha constituencies in Odisha could go to the BJP while Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) could hold on to 6-8 seats, the News18 Mega Exit Poll predicted on June 1. The poll said the BJP-led NDA could secure 13-15 Lok Sabha seats of the total 21 in the state.
This is in stark contrast from the 2019 Lok Sabha polls when the BJD was the frontrunner, winning 12 seats, while the BJP secured 8 seats. In the 2014 parliamentary election, the BJD had won 20 seats while the BJP secured 1 seat.
Experts speculated that a BJP-BJD coalition could have clinched victory in all 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha, even against potential competition from the Congress in 2024. However, the BJP and the BJD failed to form an alliance this election and fought as direct rivals.
BRS Losing in Telangana
Of the 17 seats in Telangana, the News18 Mega Exit Poll has predicted that the BJP may come out on top with 7-10 seats while the Congress may get 5-8 seats. Others, including the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) and All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), could bag 3-5 seats.
In the 2019 elections, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (now BRS) was on top in the southern state with nine of the 17 seats and a vote share of 41.71 per cent. The BJP bagged four seats with a vote share of 19.65 per cent.
The vote share of the BRS in 2024 is expected to go down to about 21 per cent while the BJP’s vote share may rise to 37 per cent. The Congress, which won three seats in 2019, could also see its vote share and number of seats rise in the southern state.
BSP’s Loss is BJP’s Gain
Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is expected to win just about 0-1 seats in Uttar Pradesh, a state it once dominated, as per the News18 Mega Exit Poll. The BJP-led NDA is likely to win 68-71 seats, while the Congress-led INDIA bloc is likely to win nine-12 seats of the 80 seats in UP, according to the survey. Of these, the Congress may win three-six, the survey states.
Pollsters say there was a split in BSP supporters with the party refusing to join either the NDA or the INDI alliance. This is seen to be the main reason for the party losing in the state and the BJP benefitting.
With exit polls predicting losses for these regional parties, it now remains to be seen whether they would join any alliances after June 4 when the Lok Sabha election results are out.
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