"We need tangible Confidence Building Measures to be taken by the Centre to give the new government in J&K a fillip. Centre needs to create an environment to infuse confidence and unless that happens, we cannot move forward," Mehbooba Mufti, the PDP supremo, said after meeting J&K Governor NN Vohra in Jammu on February 3, 2016. However, this is not the only reason which is holding back Mehbooba from taking the decision on the formation of government in J&K.
The fractured mandate of 2014 J&K Assembly polls had left all political pundits guessing all sort of things about the formation of a new government. Many speculations went round and round of possible combinations and post poll alliances between different political parties of J&K.
Finally, PDP and BJP decided to come together and form the government. BJP was desperate to be part of the government in J&K and was ready for alliance with PDP and could have even gone with NC. However, the equation with NC was at odds with BJP, given Farooq Abdullah's acerbic outrages against Narender Modi during the parliamentary elections 2014 and also at the hustings to J&K Assembly.
BJP very proudly went for 44+ plus seats campaign in the election to J&K Assembly which has total 87 seats. The total number of seats in the J&K Assembly is 111 as per the Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir (Twentieth Amendment) Act 1988. Out of these, 24 seats fall under POK which remain officially vacant as per Section 48 of the Constitution of J&K and elctions are held only for 87 seats.
BJP's battle cry for 44+ resulted in only 25 seats. This is point worthy that out of total 87 Assembly seats, the Kashmir valley region has 46 seats, the Jammu region 37 and Ladakh region has 4 seats. This ambitious 'Plan 44' was embarked upon as a result of the encouragement the BJP got during Narender Modi's two visits to the Jammu region during the parliamentary election campaign.
The Congress was uprooted by BJP during the Lok Sabha election in all assembly segments that used to be once upon a time their strongholds. However, even the highly polarised voting during the assembly elections yielded only 25 seats to BJP as against 37 + 4 seats available in Jammu and Ladakh region without opening its account in Kashmir valley.
The political demography of J&K is as such that no party can form a government without winning a seat in the Kashmir valley. In any case, BJP was only focusing on five seats in Kashmir valley which have significant voter population of migrant Kashmiri pandits.
Hardly any BJP candidate had campaigned in Kashmir Valley with the exception of Hina Bhat from Amira Kadal constituency who threatened to pick up gun if the BJP abrogated Article 370.
But only 5169 out enrolled 9638 Kashmiri pundits voted in the Assembly elections. They were upset that Prime Minister Modi did not talk about their rehabilitation in his Srinagar rally.
The BJP-PDP alliance is incoherent and unusual. The PDP all along had a 'soft separatist' agenda of politics and could be seen leaning towards the 'Hurriyat'. Soon after the Assembly polls, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed made an awkward remark giving credits to Pakistan and terrorists for "allowing" the democratic process of Assembly elections to go on.
Then came the release of Masarat Alam, who had masterminded the violent stone throwing agitation in 2010 in which over 100 boys were killed. The PDP leaders in public maintained that release had been ordered by the Supreme Court and the state government had no role in it.
But at the same time, took the credit of the release saying that to be a continuation of the 'healing touch' policy of the PDP. Masarat Alam immediately after his release organised anti-India rallies in which Pakistani flag was waved. In Delhi, the national TV channels went berserk and did not relent till the Centre ordered the Chief Minister to arrest Masarat Alam under fresh charges under Public Safety Act which can keep him in jail without trials for two years.
In an another issue of confrontation, Mufti wanted to review Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) as the head of the Unified Command. His diversionary views on Article 370 had made the alliance difficult to move even during his lifetime. Even before getting into alliance with BJP, Mufti had his own sets of dilemma and turned to Hurriyat leader Abdul Gani Bhat for advice.
It is not know as to what transpired in that meeting but the Bhat's statement is worth mentioning here: "Snakes can marry rats and bulls chase lizards. Anything can happen with reference to government formation. But at present we can say let's not count stars which lie beyond."
The PDP's politics is fundamentally different from the BJP's perspective on J&K. It believes J&K issue a tripartite matter between India, Pakistan and Kashmiri separatists. The only acceptable reason behind BJP, PDP alliance could have been the higher human development index and better quality of life of the people of J&K.
However, the politics in J&K transcends beyond the agenda of development. As on date, no political party in J&K can politically survive without soft pedalling the separatists. Many in PDP find this alliance with BJP as a betrayal to the people of Kashmir for which party has been facing a backlash. As long as Mufti was alive, he thought that the unfolding and implementation of the Common Minimum Programme (CMP) will cool down the anger of his Kashmiri voters.
Unfortunately, the implementation of the CMP did not roll out. On November 7, 2015, Prime Minister Modi addressing a public meeting at Sher-e-Kashmir stadium in Srinagar announced a Rs 80,000 crore package to J&K. This package includes money for providing relief and rehabilitation of flood victims, West Pakistan refugees, Kashmiri pandits, roads, highways, health and tourism.
However, so far no instalment towards this package has been released by the Centre to the J&K. Now Mehbooba is asking for Confidence Building Measures from the centre to move forward towards the formation of new government.
She may be hinting for immediate release of fund that was promised under the package. A number of PDP legislators, other than the ministers under the Mufti Sayeed's government, do not want the party to have an alliance with the BJP.
About 24 PDP leaders, 18 MLAs and four MLCs, think that the mood in the Valley is against such an alliance. They boycotted the party's meeting held on January 17, 2016 when Mehbooba Mufti was authorized to take a final call on government formation.
Sensing the revolt ,she said that she would take her own time. They want an alliance with the Congress, which is also ready to do business with the PDP. Sonia's visit during the funeral of Mufti is an indicator to that willingness.
Powerful leaders like Tariq Hameed Karra, founder member and former Deputy Chief Minister Muzaffar Hussain Beigh, both party MPs in the Lok Sabha, have been urging Mehbooba not to re-enter into an alliance with the BJP in the larger interest of the PDP and Kashmir. Mehbooba now has a huge task cut out for her to build a consensus within the party on the issue of alliance with BJP and also to take care of party's core support base in Kashmir.
It does not look like that there is a break through to this impasse at any time near. Who knows, we may well be heading for a mid term elections in J&K.
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