New Delhi: The results of the CNN-IBN-Indian Express-Divya Bhaskar-CSDS Exit poll on Gujarat Assembly Elections are out. Eminent psephologist Yogendra Yadav led the CSDS team which carried out the post-poll survey.
While all exit polls threw up silimar trends, there is much more to the data obtained from the survey than what the findings say. Yogendra Yadav, the man who has seen it all, explained the findings in a live chat with IBNLive readers on Monday.
Here we reproduce the full transcript of the entire chat.
Nitin: Dear Mr. Yadav, can you please tell me in detail, how you take the sample for Exit Poll?
Yogendra Yadav: I am happy to join all of you on this chat. My apologies for starting a little late.
Birju: Yogendra, your tribe tried hard to project Modiji as losing the election, and now when polling is finally over, you have now knit up stories about how it is Modiji's win and not BJP’s. You never adopted these lines for other parties, which are Maino or Maya or Mulayam-centric. Your shady role in NCERT syllabus is another proof of your utter bias and double talk. Why don’t you seek retirement from your pseudo talk?
Yogendra Yadav: I have chosen to answer your question, for you must not feel that I am avoiding ‘difficult’ questions. Your question is a good example of the kind of reaction people normally have towards Psephology. Much of the discussion is focussed around motives of those who do these polls (I am grateful that you did not talk about my being on the pay rolls of some party!!).
I think that we can have a much more profitable discussion if we focus on analytical and interpretative questions. It seems to me that you did not notice our pre-poll and post-poll surveys carefully, for both of these showed the BJP to be ahead of the Congress.
Rajesh: If you were to vote in Gujarat's elections, would you have voted for Modi?
Yogendra Yadav: I suppose this question is addressed to me in my personal capacity as a citizen. In that case the answer is that I would not. But I try to separate my political views and wishes from my analysis and assessment.
Roshan: Dear Yogendra, now that Modi is all set to come back, what can be done to defame him and make Gujarat safe for the vulnerable sections? Is there hope of using the Tehelka expose or even the affidavits filed by members of his own police to contain and limit the effects of his damaging leadership?
Yogendra Yadav: I would still wait for 23rd to be sure if Mr Modi is indeed winning the elections.
The consensus of exit polls is still not the actual outcome. The political message is that any struggle against communalism cannot take place during the five weeks of election campaign. It has to be carried out politically in the five years in between two elections. This was needed and is still needed, no matter what the outcome is.
Yashhwant Singh Negi: Dear Yadav, why there is so much of obsession with Modi and Gujrat?
After all elections of Himachal is also in process. What about Himachal Elections?
Yogendra Yadav: My gut sense is that the BJP has an upper hand in Himachal, but this is not backed by any data or survey as yet.
Dheeraj: Of the people who refused to tell who they voted for how many were Muslim? This is to find out if they were supporting Congress and there was a fear factor.
Yogendra Yadav: In our post-poll survey, the silence was not confined to or was mainly from Muslims. It was much more widespread cutting across social divide. That is what worried us and made us put a note of caution in our projections.
V K Shrivastava: Dr Yadav, let me first congratulate you for analysing elections after elections and bringing to fore various aspects which effect the outcome of elections. I would like to know your reactions on the following: 1. Do you think the Indian politicians are a matured lot?
Do they really try to garner votes on the basis of their positives rather than their opponent’s negatives? My feeling is that the latter is true. I would like to know your take on that.
2. I find they (read Congress Politicians) are more driven by their greed to grab power by hook or crook rather than actually doing some ground work for development during the time they are not in power. Contemporary history reveals that the political parties (especially Congress) keep on plotting against the party in power to destabilise it.
Is this a sign of healthy democracy? Do you think that if this trend continues the major developing states will sooner or later go the North East ways where the governments are always shaky?
In such a event the focus of the party in power will be more on ensuring its hold on power rather than on developmental issues.
3. Will it not be prudent for major political party like congress to allow the development of second line and local leadership rather than relying solely on the so called aura of the Gandhi family for better electoral results?
Yogendra Yadav: 1. Politicians all over the world are motivated by a desire to win elections, and continue to be in power as long as they can. Indian politicians are no exception. The real issue is the condition that we create for them to be able to realise this desire. If we make it possible for them to do so by breaking all norms, they will do so. If we, the people, make it unrewarding for them to adopt crooked ways they will stop doing so.
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2. What I said about politicians applies to parties as well. I find Congress to be no different.
3. Yes, the reliance on dynasty prevents the development of normal healthy organisation within the Congress party and in the long run makes the party more vulnerable.
Sudeep Marik: Hi! Don’t you think we need more politicians like Mr Lalu Yadav who can match eye to eye comments with Mr Modi, as in returning back the with same flavour of words? No one else takes the onus or even try getting back to Modi with an aggression that Mr Lalu Yadav has?
Yogendra Yadav: We must not look for personality based solutions. If Mr Modi represents a malady in the functioning of our democracy (as I think he does), Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav represented another face of a similar malady.
N P Singh: Since Gujarat is predominantly a two party state and the polls suggest almost a 10 per cent variable in the seats. Do you think this is due to that the per cent of votes in each constituency that can swing these results, if yes then what can be scenario? Anyways you folks have done a pretty decent unbaised prediction, thanks.
Yogendra Yadav: If you are saying that a very small variation in votes can cause a big difference in seats and can make our projections go wrong, I agree with you. This is a possibility. Exit polls are not so accurate instruments as to caputre minute changes that can make a difference in a two party system.
Ram: What, do you think people who are denying Lord Ram are not secular? People who support Shariya are secular? But people who support Hindus are communal?
Yogendra Yadav: I thought this question is not addressed to me and should be asked to someone who actually said any of the things you mention.
Rajesh: If we remove Godhra from Modi's career, on a scale of 1 to 10, where would you rate Modi?
Yogendra Yadav: Mr Modi has the classic attributes of an authoritarian political leader: efficient, clean, intolerant and insecure. Post Godhara riots happened to be only one instance of his authoritarianism. There were many more that I would count in rating him. There is no doubt that all this comes with fair degree of achievement on macro development indicators.
Dilip: Is it going to be the same as it had happened in 2004 with all exit polls predicting win for NDA?
Yogendra Yadav: You can’t rule that out at this stage. We need to wait till the 23rd.
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Yogesh Desai: If BJP wins in Gujarat and in HP what do you think of national election and BJP chances?
Yogendra Yadav: These days the national elections are no more than an aggregation of state elections. A victory in any state makes some difference to the mood and morale of the leaders but does not change the hard numbers in the lok sabha elections.
Ramesh Menon: What about the large ranges? like NDTV says BJP may get 90-110, and congress 70-95 thats a gap of 20-25 seats, how do we interpret that?
Yogendra Yadav: I read this as one way of indicating that there is greater uncertainty about this election forecast in Gujarat than is usually the case in other state elections. We did the same by listing many "health warnings".
Dhananjay Gangal: As a part of psephology - it is time to move beyond statistics and try to get into the psyche of the voters : why they have selected a particular party or candidate.
Yogendra Yadav: I agree, we need to get into the causes. As of now the study of voting behaviour in India is very weak on this aspect.
D K Jain: Dear Yogendraji, how you see dissident doing in this poll both from congress and BJP?
Yogendra Yadav: The dissident factor may have been over-read as usual.
Ree: Sir I am a big fan of yours. I have been watching u since 1996 election exit poll. How much percent u r sure that BJP would be bigger party in gujrat assembly election?
Yogendra Yadav: As I said on the programme I am less sure of this election than others. I will wait till the 23rd to get the real picture. But the picture we got from the poll was clearly in BJP's favour.
Sanket: Mr Yadav, whatever is the exit poll say but as a villager from Gujarat we have a feeling that BJP is going to win more then 120 seats in this election. U have small sample. We have ground reality of whole mass. What is your comment on this?
Yogendra Yadav: You could be right, like anyone else. I would still prefer a systematic sample than one person's impressions for in the long run the systematic evidence is a better guide.
Josy: Hi Yogendra I have very closely monitored the Gujarat elections on print and TV media. I have a strong feeling that there is an under current which hasn't been considered. Many voters seem to be silent in their views on opinion and exit polls, which bring the exit poll figures under question mark?
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Will the rise in polling per cent in rural areas all around is going to benefit Congress and urban areas BJP? Probably the all exit polls might be wrong in judging this undercurrent and silent voters. What is your opinion?
Yogendra Yadav: We spoke about this undercurrent and silence in our programme. We have tried to take that into account in our projections. But it is still and untested ground and it is possible that we may have not accounted for this factor sufficiently.
On the other hand it is possible that we may have over-adjusted for this and the BJP may actually win by a bigger margin than what most exit polls are saying.
Roopesh: How are the minority votes distributed ? Any change in pattern from 2002? This time educated Muslims voted for BJP?
Yogendra Yadav: We have always found some 10-15 per cent Muslims vote for BJP for reasons that are mainly local. This time was no different to the best of my knowledge.
Jainul Bari Khan: Do you think Gujarat election was on the basis of hindutwa?
Yogendra Yadav: No, there is no evidence of that. At the same time there is no evidence of any rejection of Hindutva either.
Dinesh Khemlani: If the Congress does better as you have projected it's implications in national politics. If elections were held in March your estimate shall do. Also if it gets 70 - 80 seats as projected would Congress go for general elections given the love hate relationship with the Marxist.
Yogendra Yadav: If Congress does not win Gujarat it will be less tempted to go for national elections
Sanal Kumar Nair: Dear Mr Yogendra Yadav, I have been watching the opinion polls of various organisations. How can you decide the results based on a small number of samples surveyed by you? Please explain the truth of this poll.
Yogendra Yadav: The problem with polls is not that of small sample size. The problem usually is that the sample they select (big or small) is not representative of the population they seek to cover.
Samba: Dear Yogendra don’t you think Supreme Court should ban media from declaring exit polls before the elections? As media is no more reliable and it can use exit polls to its benefit by backing its patrons, this scenario may not exist in the national level politics but in the state level media is completely biased.
Exit poll results will definitely tilt the opinion of undecided voters towards the leading party. When undecided voters percentage is so high now a days don’t you think media is more or less changing the outcome of elections by declaring exit polls before elections?
Yogendra Yadav: I personally do not like making projections one polling has begun and before the last vote is cast. I would support a media ethics where exit polls are not done in-between. But this has to be a collective decision.
Venus: Something apart from Gujarat, I would just like to know is your proximity to Rajdeep Sardesai the reason for your presence on CNN IBN. Previously I had seen you with TV Today group and then with NDTV (along with Rajdeep) Just asking nothing malicious about it I have been a great fan of both you and Rajdeep since I have 1996.
Yogendra Yadav: We are not childhood friends or anything like that. The "proximity" is professional respect for each other.
Sashi: What is the ideal sample size for exit poll for a state link Gujarat?What is the sample size you have taken?
Yogendra Yadav: About 10,000 I would guess. We took 9,000.
S Venkataraman: What were your predictions for the elections in Gujarat in 2002? How far off the mark were you?
Yogendra Yadav: Then we had carried out a pre-election poll for Frontline and had estimated that the BJP was ahead by 15 per cent and said this was an unassailable lead that is expected to result in a landslide.
Dear friends, let me finally reiterate some points I have been making again and again: exit polls are at best only estimates that indicate the direction of things. This poll for Gujarat is even more prone to error than the usual ones so I would wait for 23rd to get the real picture. Yes, I cannot claim to be a fan of Narendra Modi as many of you are.
But I try to separate my likes/dislikes from my assessment, as i did in 2002 when we had projected a landslide for BJP. Let us not reduce all discussion about election forecasting to motives of those who make assessment. let us try to go beyond it. Thank you.
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