As the Lok Sabha elections are round the corner, Uttar Pradesh has suddenly become the hot topic of discussion. BJP is going all out to capture power at the Centre by aiming to win maximum number of seats in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. With as many as 80 Lok Sabha seats, UP remains key to any party aiming to capture power in Delhi. So what game plan have the political parties got for this crucial state and which party can sweep the country's largest state?
Uttar Pradesh is a fascinating political map, with as many as seven former prime ministers coming from this part of the Hindi heartland. Congress dominated the state's politics for almost four decades till advent of Mandal and Mandir era; following which began the rise of regional forces such as the BSP and the Samajwadi Party.
It is this multi-cornered political battle between the two national parties and strong regional forces which makes UP the most watched political battle of all. So which party stands where? Let us examine one by one.
Party members feel that Narendra Modi is one of the most charismatic leaders that the BJP has had in recent times.
The BJP
It was the Ayodhya movement which saw the party's dramatic rise to power both at the Centre as well as in Uttar Pradesh. Post Mandir movement, BJP saw a rapid rise in UP. In 1996 it managed to capture as many as 48 Lok Sabha seats in UP, and when Atal Bihari Vajpayee came to power at the Centre in 1998 it was UP which saw a rapid jump in party's vote share to almost 37 per cent with the saffron party bagging as many as 52 Lok Sabha seats in the state. But ever since BJP lost power in UP (party's last chief minister was Rajnath Singh in 2002), BJP graph has dwindled rapidly and the party has been out of power in UP for almost 12 years now, with its vote share slipping to almost 17 per cent (almost half) during 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Party kept going down further and in 2012 assembly elections party's vote share rapidly declined to just 15 per cent.
So what were the causes of this rapid decline? Reasons are many. End of Vajpayee era, rise of strong regional players such as Mulayam Singh Yadav (SP) and Mayawati (BSP), Congress making a dramatic comeback in 2009 general elections - pulling back quite a chunk of its traditional Brahmin, Muslim and Dalit votes banks in UP, and worse problems in party's own backyard - serious in-fighting among Brahmin and Thakur leaders in the party, disillusioned cadre and lack of a charismatic and credible face.
So what has changed in UP BJP since Modi's projection as party's Prime Ministerial face and party's possible decision to make him contest from Varanasi? With the decline of the Vajpayee era who was one of the most prominent Brahmin faces representing the prestigious Lucknow Lok Sabha seat and to some extent downfall of Kalyan Singh, one of the strongest Lodh face of the BJP, UP has seriously lacked a charismatic leader with a mass appeal. Move to make Modi contest from UP is seen as party's well thought of strategy to fill in that void left by Vajpayee.
"We feel after Vajpayee, Modi is one of the most charismatic leaders BJP has had in recent times. His projection (as PM) has definitely energized the party cadre," says a senior backroom party functionary.
Modi from Varanasi
This is also preciously the reason why Modi is being fielded from UP, with Varanasi as the preferred choice. Party insiders say, Modi contesting from Varanasi would mean influencing the entire Eastern region, where the BJP has weakened over the years and that might also have an influence on adjoining Bihar where the party is seem to be gaining after snapping of ties by Nitish Kumar.
Varanasi has always been a centre of Hindutva ideology. With Modi contesting from Varanasi party wants to send a message that it has not deviated from its core agenda of Hindutva, even though in his speeches Modi and other party leaders have continued to focus on development related issues. Though at the moment sitting BJP MP Murli Manohar Joshi is reluctant to vacate Varanasi seat, party insiders say there is very little choice left for Joshi. With party already having made up its mind to field Modi from Varanasi, reversing the decision at the last moment would mean sending wrong signal not only to party cadres, but also to the voters.
"BJP does not want to give a signal that a PM candidate (Modi) does not even have the right to choose a constituency of his choice. Can this have happened in Vajpayee era," asks a party insider. Party is seriously thinking of placating Joshi and moving him out by giving him some "suitable option", unless top party leadership changes its mind and RSS steps in at the last moment.
Varanasi battle could turn interesting
If Modi finally contests from Varanasi it could become one of the most keenly watched constituencies. Aam Aadmi Party has made it clear if Modi contests from Varanasi, it would field Arvind Kejriwal. But this is not all. Modi will also have to face Don turned political Mukhtar Ansari who is likely to contest on Kaumi Ekta Dal ticket. Varanasi has an interesting caste combination with Muslims have a solid 3 lakh plus vote bank, backwards, Patels and Brahmins are other key vote banks. In 2009 Mukhtar Ansari gave a very tough fight to Murli Manohar Joshi with Joshi winning Ansari by just over 18000 votes. So in Varanasi Modi might have to face an "Anarchist" and a "Don" and in a multi-corned contest fight could be tough.
Amit Shah factor
If there is a Modi wave as being put forward by party leaders and poll surveys, there is another very important factor which could be a key to BJP's success in Uttar Pradesh. This factor is Amit Shah. Appointing Modi's right hand man Amit Shah as party's state-in-charge was a well thought strategy by party think-tank and the RSS. Shah has been working close to Modi for the last 14 years in Gujarat and is known to have strong organizational skills. Ever since he has taken charge of UP, Shah has completely revamped the party organizational structure.
"You might have a wave or voter swing in your favor but to capture those votes you need solid organizational set up and an energized cadre base and this is what Amit Shah is aiming in UP," says a political analyst.
Known to be a workaholic, silent and aloof, Shah seldom hogs the media limelight instead he is known to "feed" the media during informal chats. Ever since becoming state in-charge, Amit Shah has travelled to almost 70 parliamentary constituencies, something which no other state in-charge has done so far. A silent operator, Shah has given a clear cut message to the party cadre that their immediate focus might be the Lok Sabha elections but their long term focus should be 2017 assembly elections in UP. Keeping with this long term goal in mind Shah has made 401 raths which are going to each of the 403 assembly constituencies of UP.
Shah knows if Modi has to come back to power besides the traditional upper caste vote back, party will need to pull back backward class and Dalit vote bank. This is the reason these BJP Raths are focusing on Dalit and backward villages.
Shah's message to the BJP cadre is very clear. BJP's main rivals in these elections are not SP or Congress, it is BSP. So special emphasis is being given to counter two things at which BSP is good at - booth management and organizing mega rallies. So far Modi has done 8 rallies in UP though the Lucknow rally failed to meet Amit Shah's expectations in terms of crowed pulling. A shrewd maneuver and silent mover, Shah has slowly sidelined all party old timers from UP such as Kalraj Mishra, Vinay Katiyar, Lalji Tandon and Kesari Nath Tripathi. Now trio of Amit Shah-Modi and Rajnath Singh calls the shots in UP.
Congress, BJP, SP, AAP
The ruling Samajwadi party faces a massive dent in seats; and factors are many. A section of Yadavs are feeling alienated due to SP's Muslim appeasement. What is interesting is that despite Muslim appeasement, Muslims are also disgruntled with the SP especially with Akhilesh Yadav's handling of Muzaffarnagar riots. But Mulayam Singh Yadav is a very experienced and clever politician and after Muzaffarnagar riots, he is reaching out to the Muslims and even not hesitating to reprimanding his own son the Chief Minister. Which way key Muslims voters will go in UP will only become clear as days unfold. Traditionally, Muslims have preferred to go with the candidate who can defeat the BJP and Muslim votes generally take decision at the last moment.
After landslide victory in 2012, SP seems to be fast slipping. It was the first party to finalize Lok Sabha tickets but things went out of hand. Sensing defeat SP has recently withdrawn tickets from as many as two dozen candidates, further facing rebellion and dissent.
For the Congress picture looks grimmer. AAP's anti-corruption campaign has dented Congress more than BJP. After making a comeback in 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Congress it seems to be heading towards a single digit mark.
With SP in doldrums and Congress heading for a rout, BSP seems to have a direct battle with the BJP. With BJP aiming for Dalit vote bank Mayawati has started launching strong attacks against Modi hoping to win back Muslims. Mayawati can only gain in seats where Muslims voters remain undivided and the BSP manages to keep its Dalit vote bank intact.
And last but not the least, the AAP. Kejriwal's party has definitely made an impact, especially in the urban areas. The AAP definitely enjoys some support among a section of the middle class, peasants and urban Muslims. But due to lack of cadre and organizational structure, it might not be able to convert the support into seats.
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