India is likely to see above-normal monsoon, with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106 percent of long-period average of 87 cm, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.
The forecasting agency predicted above-normal rainfall expected in most parts of country, except in some regions of northwest, east and northeastern states.
It said La Nina conditions, associated with good Monsoon in India, is likely to set in by August-September.
“Data from 1951 to 2023 shows India experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall on 9 occasions when La Nina followed El Nino event,” IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.
IMD predicts 2024 southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). Seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. LPA of monsoon rainfall (1971-2020) is 87 cm. pic.twitter.com/bgBhLX0M2W— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) April 15, 2024
The monsoon, which usually arrives over the southern tip of Kerala state around June 1 and retreats in mid-September, is expected to total 106% of the long-term average this year, M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, told a news conference.
The IMD defines average or normal rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.
Ravichandran said, “According to the rainfall data from 1971 till 2020, we have introduced new long-period average and normal…According to this normal, from June 1 to 30 September, the average of the total rainfall of the entire country will be 87 cm…”
(with inputs from agencies)
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