The Bharatiya Janata Party and its National Democratic Alliance are set to sweep the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh in the just-concluded Lok Sabha elections, a News18 Mega Exit Poll predicted on Saturday.
Rajasthan
The BJP and its allies are expected to win 18-23 of the 25 seats in Rajasthan, with the Congress and its INDIA bloc likely to get just 2-7 seats.
In the 2019 elections, the BJP swept Rajasthan, winning 24 of the 25 seats with a 59.07% vote share. The Congress got 34.59% of the votes but failed to win even a single seat. The Rashtriya Loktantrik Party from the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance won the only remaining seat with a vote share of 2.06%.
Madhya Pradesh
In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP-led NDA could net 26-29 of all 29 seats, while the Congress and INDIA bloc may end up with 0-3.
The BJP bagged 28 of the 29 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh in 2019, with a vote share of 58%. The Congress got the remaining seat with a vote share of 34.5% across the state.
Chhattisgarh
The outcome predicted in Chhattisgarh is not very different, Here, the BJP and NDA may get 9-11 of the 11 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress and the INDIA bloc are predicted to end up with 0-2.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP picked up 9 of Chhattisgarh’s 11 seats with a vote share of 51.44%. The Congress netted the remaining two seats with a 41.51% vote share.
Exit poll methodology
The News18 Poll Hub survey covered all 518 seats in 21 major states, which account for 95% of Lok Sabha constituencies in the country. In each Lok Sabha constituency, 180 interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire, which was translated into 11 regional languages. For phases one to six, the interviews were conducted the ‘day after’, as it is known to yield more reliable responses, and the traditional exit poll – asking people coming out of the polling booth – was carried out for phase 7.
A total sample size of 93,240 across 21 states was planned, but over 95,000 was achieved. In each Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were covered, with 10 polling booths in each selected through random sampling. Around each polling station, trained investigators conducted 15 door-to-door interviews – one eligible respondent with an inked finger per household. In the case of the exit poll, near each polling station, 15 interviews were conducted of people coming out after casting their votes, with every fifth person stopped for an interview.
On-spot checks by senior field managers and executives, geo-tagging of interviews, and telephonic back-checks for 20% of the sample in each state were among the many steps taken to maintain quality.
Check detailed seat predictions based on Exit Poll Results 2024 LIVE . Get minute-by-minute updates on the exit polls from Andhra Pradesh.
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