As the countdown to voting in the 2014 general elections approaches, the cut and thrust of the campaign speeches and the electoral rhetoric is clearly reaching a feverish pitch. Every passing day brings sharp comments triggering off equally strong counter reactions. What has occupied the spotlight of attention in the past few days has been the manner in which the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and its leadership have taken the electoral battle to Gujarat, the home turf of the BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. The many ripples that this visit created both within the state and across the country has been the subject of animated debate. Clearly, the AAP and its leadership has succeeded in ensuring that they continue to be strongly visible on the election campaign 'radar'. Their strategy and its wider ramifications merit deeper analysis.
From day one AAP has been packaging itself as a 'viable alternative' to mainstream political parties and conventional politics. Its critics would argue that after it agreed to form the government in Delhi, it is not different from a mainstream party. Yet its approach to politics, both when in power in Delhi and after it decided to register its presence on the national stage, has been anything but conventional. Its dharna opposite Rail Bhavan and resigning after being in power for 49 days had led to some disillusionment among voters in Delhi, though it continues to enjoy a high level of goodwill. The February round of the CNN-IBN Tracker Poll conducted by CSDS-Lokniti, clearly indicates that more than half of those who had heard of Arvind Kejriwal's dharma before Rail Bhavan disapproved of the same. Again, more than half of the respondents felt that AAP should have tried to build a consensus with other parties on the Jan Lokpal Bill rather than making it the reason for his resignation. Again, on the tactics adopted by the AAP while in power in Delhi, a majority felt that the party was genuinely concerned about issues they were agitating on and not doing it only for dramatic effect.
Ever since he resigned as Chief Minister, Arvind Kejriwal and his party have made the Lok Sabha elections their principal focus. With the ruling UPA on the back-foot and the BJP and its Prime Ministerial candidate increasingly setting the agenda, the AAP and its leadership has consciously decided to target the principal opposition party and its leader. Kejriwal's assertion that he would contest against Modi if he were to file his nomination from any constituency outside Gujarat, needs to be viewed in this light. If the focus of its attack were to be the Congress led UPA, AAP realizes that it would need to share space with the BJP, which is already doing this task. By taking on the Opposition head on, the AAP achieves two objectives. Occupy the anti-BJP space which the Congress seems to be withdrawing from and secondly, challenge the BJP and its Prime Ministerial candidate and thus occupy the spotlight of attention.
Over the past decade, the Congress has not merely conceded the ruling party status to the BJP but also being muted and subdued in its role as the principal Opposition. Very few senior national level Congress leaders have been seen travelling through Gujarat in the recent past. In this political environment, Kejriwal seizes the initiative and sets off on a high voltage and much publicized trip to Gujarat. Rather than focus on the 2002 riots and the secularism track record of Gujarat (the single issue campaign of most BJP/Modi opponents), Kejriwal challenges Modi's development track record and linkages with the corporate world. Rather than underplaying the importance of the Kejriwal journey through Gujarat, the State BJP organizes black flag demonstration and the government/administration creates multiple road-blocks. This is exactly what the AAP had hoped for. It was very conveniently provided with an issue to confront the BJP and its leadership. The manner in which Kejriwal sought a meeting with Narendra Modi was clearly indicative that he himself was not hopeful of such a meeting materializing. Being 'denied' the chance of a meeting, allowed him to make the point that the BJP Prime Ministerial candidate was not comfortable to face questions on his development record in Gujarat.
AAP has always claimed that it wants to rewrite the nature and structure of politics by sidelining conventional methods. Each move by AAP and its leadership, in the series of events in Gujarat (which had ramifications outside Gujarat also) need to be seen as part of this effort to challenge the 'conventional'. In the run up to the Lok Sabha polls, the AAP also aims at gaining quick visibility and traction by taking on the apparent 'front-runner' and its Prime Ministerial candidate. By doing so it hopes to position itself as the chief critic of the BJP and its Prime Ministerial candidate. This strategy however has its limitations. In much of North and Central India (save UP and Bihar) where the principal contest is between the Congress and the BJP, the AAP hopes to fill the political space left open by the sense of disillusionment among a segment of the voters with the two mainstream parties - the Congress and the BJP. Its challenging the BJP in a two way fight between the BJP and Congress, may at best divide the anti-BJP vote. Does the AAP have the organizational capacity and visible local leadership to ensure that the votes it receives would allow it to not just remain a spoiler but emerge as a genuine challenger in the run up to the elections?
By attempting to be what it would term as 'unconventional' in its approach and strategy, AAP may gain visibility in the election campaign. Transforming the same into support to ensure electoral victories in the Lok Sabha poll requires a different political momentum and effort. The politics of 'protest' can be the base of a movement. Challenging the 'conventional' can be a sure way of gaining 'instant' visibility. However, AAP claims that it is in politics for the long haul. AAP's commitment to an alternate route to mainstream politics is in order to come to power. With that as the aim, a more nuanced approach and a well thought through strategy which does not merely focus on grabbing the headlines may be in order.
Dr Sandeep Shastri is Pro Vice Chancellor, Jain University
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