Nearly two months into Russia’s invasion, the war has disproportionately affected Ukraine, where millions of people have been forced to seek refuge in neighbouring countries. And American political scientist John Mearsheimer blames the West for the wreckage. In an exclusive interview to CNN-News18, Mearsheimer warned that the West is playing with fire, referring to Russia, and said that Ukraine is being led down a path of destruction.
“If the Russian military begins to fall apart, I think [Ukraine] it’s going to be in a very dangerous situation. And at the same time if the Russian economy is really beginning to hurt and if it’s in the verge of collapsing, the Russians will think very seriously about trying to rescue the situation with nuclear weapons.”
Mearsheimer said what’s happening in Ukraine now is a “catastrophe” and the West “foolishly” made Ukraine give up its nuclear weapons. “I’ve argued from the beginning that Ukraine should keep its nuclear weapons because there was always a possibility that Russians would come knocking and those nuclear weapons would be an excellent deterrent.”
“But the West foolishly made Ukraine give up its nuclear weapons, and then the West foolishly led Ukraine to poke the Russian bear in the eye with NATO expansion causing this crisis,” he said, adding once the crisis broke out the West pushed Ukraine to double down and the West itself doubled down “and the end result is Ukraine getting wrecked.”
On Wednesday, US President Joe Biden announced an $800 million military aid package for Ukraine as international prosecutors declared the war-torn Western ally a “crime scene” amid fears of a massive revamped Russian assault. Biden also accused Putin of causing a “genocide.”
Ukraine’s top government economic adviser Oleg Ustenko said that invading Russian forces destroyed at least $100 billion worth of infrastructure, buildings and other physical assets as on March 10.
The end to this war, Mearsheimer says, is not too easy to predict. He said while Putin has to stay in the fight as he views the war as an existential threat, the US will also not quit, leaving Ukraine to suffer more damages.
“With regard to Putin, Putin has to stay in the fight. He can’t lose. It would be a disaster for him politically, it would be a disaster for his country. Again, he views this as an existential threat. So Putin is not going to quit. I don’t see the Americans quitting and I don’t think the Ukrainians have the agency by themselves to stop this war and for that reason I find it hard to see how this one comes to an end anytime soon,” Mearsheimer told CNN-News18.
Incidentally, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on April 13 said a “global ceasefire doesn’t seem possible,” indicating the UN is still waiting for answers from Russia to concrete proposals for evacuating civilians and delivering aid. “That was our appeal for humanitarian reasons but it doesn’t seem possible,” Guterres had said.
As for the possibility of a peace agreement, or a solution to this war, Mearsheimer says the solution to the whole problem has been there from the beginning. “The solution is Ukraine abandons any interest in becoming a part of NATO and. The solution if for Ukraine to become a neutral country and to work out some sort of modus vivendi with Russia,” he said.
Pointing out the fact that Russia is much more powerful than Ukraine, with the capacity to do enormous damage, the political scientist said the sad truth is Ukraine doesn’t have much choice but to accommodate the Russians to a large extent. “Poking the stick in Russia’s eye is a prescription for disaster.”
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